黄金会再度突破1300美元吗?

2017-04-19 15:43:28

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周一黄金成交价为1295.56美元,是特朗普大选以来的最高水平。

美国十年期国债收益率在三月中旬达到最高点,随后开始回落,在上周特朗普抱怨美元太过强势后跌破2.2%。美国财政部长Mnuchin周一介入,试图缓解美国国债收益率的下行压力。他强调,从长远来看,美元强势是件好事。他评价特朗普的财政计划“不切实际”。

Mnuchin的表态阻止了美元债券的下跌趋势,但却没能恢复六月加息的预期。概率跌至50%。

市场似乎在慢慢接受2017年内多加息两次。由此看来,九月加息的可能性高达73.3%。

这意味着美国国债的收益率可能会触底反弹。问题是什么时候会出现反弹,又会持续多久。

目前为止,疲软的债券收益会增加黄金的持有,尤其要考虑地缘政治的风险规避因素。

由此而论,即使美国国债收益在未来几周内有所回升,黄金买家也会转向黄金,忽略不计息黄金风险成本的小幅上涨。

从技术层面来看

黄金从2016年7月的中长期阻力位跌至1278.90美元,如果能够突破阻力位1315美元(76.4%的小幅回撤),将会遇到更具挑战的阻力位1375美元(7月峰值)。

从短期来看,下行修正可以延伸至1272美元(三月至八月的23.6%小幅回撤)以及1275美元/1255美元(200天移动均线的38.2%大幅回撤),这是当前趋势的重要支撑。

黄金期货、ETF产品加入上涨行列

长期期货仓位的净头寸上涨至五月以来的最高点,逼近特朗普上台前的水平。当前的交易量显示,黄金市场仍有很大的投机空间。

全球最大的黄金ETF(交易所交易基金)产品 SPDR Gold Shares即将突破52周最高水平131.15美元。

Is Gold still on to challenge $1,300?


The following guest post is courtesy of Ipek Ozkardeskaya, Senior Market Analyst at FCA regulated broker London Capital Group Holdings plc (LON:LCG).

Gold traded at $1295.56 on Monday, the highest level since Donald Trump’s election triggered the ‘reflation’ rally across the global asset markets and the US yields.

After reaching their highest by mid-March, the US 10-year yields started their descent and finally hit the 2.20% level after Donald Trump complained about the US dollar’s strength at a speech delivered last week. The US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stepped in as soon as Monday, to cool off the downside pressures on the US yields, mentioning that the strong US dollar is a ‘good thing’ in the long-term, while mentioning that Trump’s fiscal plans could not be ‘realistic’.

Mnuchin’s comments gave a positive spin to the falling US yields, yet failed to revive the expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in June. Odds fell to 50%.

It appears that the markets are slowly settling for two additional Fed rate hikes in 2017, yet to happen marginally later in the year than previously thought. In this context, September is a rising option, with 73.3% probability.

This certainly means that the US yields are seeking a bottom, while a recovery should be on the cards. But the question is when and how fast the recovery would happen.

As of now, the softer US yields are expected to encourage a broader allocation in gold holdings, especially given the rising risk aversion due to global geopolitical concerns.

In this context, even if the US yields were to recover in the coming weeks, gold buyers could ignore a slight increase in the opportunity cost of holding the non-interest bearing gold and return to the bullion.

From a technical point of view

Gold cleared 1278.90, the last critical medium-term resistance on July 2016 to December 2016 decline. The gate is open for a further rise to $1315 (minor 76.4% retracement), before considering a more challenging path toward $1375 (July peak).

In the short-run, the downside correction could extend to $1272 (minor 23.6% retracement in March-April rise) and $1257/1255 (major 38.2% retracement / 200-day moving average), which is the critical support to the current positive trend.

Gold futures, ETFs join the rise

Net long future positions advanced nearly to a five month high, just reaching the pre-Trump levels. The current volumes suggests that there is room for larger speculative positions in the gold markets.

The SPDR Gold Shares, the world’s biggest gold ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is on its way toward its 52-week high ($131.15).

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:https://www.leaprate.com/experts/ipek-ozkardeskaya/gold-still-challenge-1300/

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