退欧之后的英国

史上最贵的离婚是哪一场？问问英国人就知道了，英国议会计算出了退欧的最终成本。

如果你没有仔细了解过，也许会认为，退欧有什么难的？收拾东西离开办公室，再找些人来打扫清理，把钥匙交接了就可以了，不是吗？

当然不是，退欧完全不是搬个家那样简单，这一切要归功于第50号文件。

第50号文件是什么？是所有欧盟成员国签署的退欧条款。若想退出欧盟，该国必须向欧盟理事会立交正式申请并进行协商。退欧国还必须参加欧盟内部关于退欧流程的讨论。

表面上看起来很简单，但实际操作起来却是困难重重。英国的难处之一，最高法院通告了内部流程没有咨询国会的意见，因此推迟了欧盟的两年退欧倒计时。经过激烈的争论，国会可能会在三月将决议转化为法律条款。

布鲁塞尔的预期和大众预期相差甚远。在退欧公投之时，预计每周要向欧盟支付3.5亿英镑。某些英国人认为支付到退欧完成就可以了。

但布鲁塞尔的账单不是那么美好，英国在退欧之后的几年内也要继续支付。Alex Barker在欧盟改革中心的报告中指出，退欧的总费用大概在245亿至728亿欧元之间。账单涉及三个方面，其一是欧盟各国政府批准的七年预算承诺，其二是2019年后的投资承诺，其三是无资金准备的养老金债务。

由于英国公众和布鲁塞尔对支付金额预期存在巨大的差异，英国政府还有很大的协商空间。对于欧盟来说，英国的角色已经从合作伙伴转变为外部国家，这会对协商的立场产生极大的影响。英国可能会同欧盟内的国家建立友好关系，从而缓解这种影响。英国已同欧盟展开了多次非正式会议，会议气氛剑拔弩张。有些人建议第三方进行干涉调节，已实现更有效的协商和交易。

未来的种种挑战迫使Theresa May提前进行总统选举。为了在同布鲁塞尔的协商中获得最大的政治力量，她需要获得国会的全力支持。虽然她所在的党派目前占有17个席位，但是更多的席位会带给她更大的自由来同欧盟协商以及制定计划。

Britain After Brexit

 What’s it like to have the most expensive divorce in history? Ask the people of Britain, as Westminster finalises the cost of leaving the European Union.

Anyone that has not been watching closely the machinations in Europe will find it surprising that there is anything to discuss. Surely they just pack up their offices, hire some cleaners and painters and hand over the key before they move out, right?

Unfortunately no. Leaving Brexit is not at all like vacating an apartment, thanks to a little document called Article 50.

What is Article 50? Article 50 is the plan signed by all the EU states which outlines the mechanisms which allows a country to leave the EU. To leave the EU, the member country must formally notify the European council and negotiate its withdrawal. Its also requires the exiting nation to take part in EU internal discussions about the process of its departure.

Whilst it all seems simple, the reality is proving challenging and difficult at best. In Britain, a challenge to the supreme court heralded the first stage of internal processes to invoke article 50 without consulting parliament, delaying the start of the two year time clock for the EU negotiations. After a fierce fight, it is expected that Parliament will pass its decision into law in March.

Then the negotiations begin in earnest, with a significant gap between expectations held in Brussels and that of the British public. At the time of the referendum in Britain, the savings resulting from a Brexit was estimated at £350m per week. In some parts of Britain there is an expectation that all payments will stop when Britain exits.

However, the bill in Brussels paints a very different picture, expecting Britain to pay its dues for several years. Alex Barker, in a report from the Centre for European Reform, puts the exit figure of the disengagement bill at between €24.5bn and €72.8bn. The bill centres on three main aspects. The first relates to the 7 year budgetary commitment approved by all EU governments, including Britain. The second relates to investment commitments post 2019, whilst the third involves liabilities associated with the as yet unfunded pension scheme.

With the gulf between the British public’s perception of the EU payment commitments and that of Brussels, there is not a lot of wiggle room domestically for the British government to negotiate. For the EU, Britain’s bargaining position has shifted from partner to external nation, impacting relationships and their negotiation stance. To alleviate this somewhat, it is expected that Britain will work to improve ties with individual EU nations, hoping to create a favourable environment for negotiations and departure. The current desire by Brussels to finalise the bill before undertaking further trade discussions, against the wishes of the British position, also puts further pressure on an already emotional debate. It has been reported that informal meetings between the two sides has descended into acrimonious behavior. Some suggest a third party mediation will quell tensions somewhat, allowing a more effective negotiation and transition.

The challenges ahead have undoubtedly prompted Theresa May to call for an early election in June, the third general election in less than two years. In order for May to wield the most political power possible throughout her negotiations with Brussels, she is going to require the full support of her parliament. While her working majority currently stands at 17 seats, more seats will give her a freer hand in her negotiations as well as improve her ability to set the agenda at home.

With all the makings of a wonderful public battle, the great Brexit battle has already shown the potential to be the nastiest divorce in recent memory. With the division of the assets of a continent at stake, and many different competing interests and agendas, it is sure to be epic.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：https://www.leaprate.com/experts/adinah-brown/britain-after-brexit/