特朗普为何转变对耶伦态度?

2017-04-14 17:09:39

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美联储专家在周三表示,特朗普若想实现他的经济目标过程,就需要耶伦的鸽派立场。

在华尔街日报的采访中,特朗普表示了对耶伦的尊敬,但他也认为耶伦执掌美联储并不是广受赞誉的。

特朗普在采访中说道:“说实话,我确实很喜欢低利率政策。”

特朗普去年可不是这样说的。他说:“我和耶伦没有任何冲突,她的能力很强。但她属于共和党。等到她的任期结束,我就会换人。”

经济学家认为,特朗普的税务改革和基础设施支出会带来极大的财政刺激。通货膨胀还未出现,经济快速增长的局面就已经开始了。

鹰派的政策可能会导致利率迅速增长。但是在过去的四年中,耶伦已经展现出她的柔和态度,任何决策都要三思而行。

波士顿Standish Mellon资产管理公司首席经济学家莱因哈特认为:对于特朗普来说,耶伦是最安全的鸽派人选。

特朗普团队和美联储之间的冲突之一便是缺乏“一个相对缓和的美联储”,而耶伦是最有可能实现这一目标的人。

莱因哈特说:“人们在某些环境下喜欢耶伦,她不是万能的。”

Evercore ISI副主席古哈认为特朗普很难阻止耶伦连任。

特朗普需要做的就是避免向美联储表现出“绝对鹰派”的态度。

在上个月的市场观察网采访中,乔治华盛顿大学政治科学教授Sarah Binder说:“无论特朗普在大选中怎么说,从本质上看,他是倾向于低利率的。”

莱因哈特认为耶伦连任的最大阻力来自于上议院的共和党,这些人更希望美联储采用简单的政策。

特朗普很难再找到一个既遵守规则又不属于鹰派的人选了。

因为大多数保守政策条款都需要更鹰派的利率政策,这远高于美联储当前的保证。

摩根大通首席经济学家Jim Glassman认为,耶伦连任的连贯性对金融市场更有好处。无论怎样,特朗普都扭转了对耶伦的态度。

他说:“现在每一个候选人都要跟耶伦比一比鸽派的程度。”

古哈说:“一旦特朗普不再选任鹰派的美联储主席,债券市场的风险就会增加。”

Why did Trump flip flop on Yellen? She may be the dove he needs, analysts say

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen is the dove that President Donald Trump needs to achieve his economic goals, central bank experts said Wednesday as they contemplated the apparent reversal in his stance.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Trump said he had respect for Yellen and said she was “not toast” when her term helming the central bank ends next year.

“I do like a low-interest rate policy, I have to be honest with you,” Trump said in the interview.

That’s not what Trump said last year: “I have nothing against Janet Yellen whatsoever, she’s very capable person. But she’s not a Republican,” Trump said. “When her time is up I would most likely replace because of the fact it would be appropriate.”

Economists said Trump’s ambitious goals for tax reform and infrastructure spending could provide a strong does of fiscal stimulus. The economy is already growing about as fast as it can without sparking inflation.

So having a hawk on the Fed might lead to rapid rate hikes. But Yellen has shown over the past four years that she favors a gradual approach and might take a more wait-and-see attitude.

Yellen is “the safest dovish choice” for Trump, said Vincent Reinhart, chief economist for Standish Mellon Asset Management in Boston and a former top Fed economist.

One way around a collision between the Fed and the Trump White House is to have “a relatively accommodative Federal Reserve,” and Yellen is probably “the most market friendly person to deliver that,” Reinhart said.

“People appreciate that Yellen’s dovishness is situational. She is not one to do anything to ultimately threaten the Fed’s pursuit of 2% inflation,” he said.

Krishna Guha, vice chairman of Evercore ISI, said it was still unlikely that Trump will end up offering Yellen a second term.

Trump will just avoid appointing “outright hawks” to the Fed board of governors, he said.

In an interview with MarketWatch last month, Sarah Binder, a professor of political science at George Washington University, said Trump was, at heart, a low-interest-rate guy, despite the comments in the campaign. Trump used just those words in the interview published Wednesday.

Reinhart said the biggest hurdle to a second term for Yellen would be the reaction from Senate Republicans, many of whom favor having the Fed follow a simple policy rule.

Guha said it might be hard for Trump to find a new Fed chief who favors following a rule but isn’t hawkish.

“This is because most conventional policy rules...already call for a materially more hawkish path for rates than the Fed currently indicates is likely to be warranted,” he said in a note to clients.

Jim Glassman, chief economist for commercial banking at J.P. Morgan Chase, said that there is a lot of respect for Yellen in financial markets and continuity would be “worth a lot.”

No matter what, Trump’s comments have completely changed the contest to be the next Fed chief, Reinhart said.

“Now every candidate is going to be compared with how dovish they will be relative to Yellen,” he said.

Guha said this raises the risk for the bond market that Trump’s nominations to the Fed may not be hawkish or independent enough.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-did-trump-flip-flop-on-yellen-she-may-be-the-dove-he-needs-analysts-say-2017-04-12

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