特朗普大选获胜 加息概率下降

唐纳德·特朗普在总统大选中的意外获胜在金融市场中激起了轩然大波，增加了经济前景的不确定性，这是美联储深恶痛绝的。

大选的结果出人意料，投资者们都怀疑美联储能否在下个月如愿加息。

特朗普竞选成功加大了市场波动。标普500指数的隐含波动率急速上升。

Pantheon Macroeconomics首席经济学家Ian Shepherdson表示：“耶伦的美联储痛恨不确定性和下跌的股价，他们会推迟计划，暂时按兵不动。”

彭博社报道称，由于特朗普当选，美联储十二月加息的概率已经降到50%以下。周二时加息的可能性高达82%。

CME的美联储观察工具的跌幅没有这么大，仅仅是从71%跌至67%。

截至当天，股票距最高点相去甚远，远期美国债券下跌，十年期美国债券收益超过2%。

无论市场反应如何，分析家们认为十二月加息的概率已经降低了。Shepherdson认为十二月加息的概率不足三分之一。

他认为消费者信心和商业信心都因大选而减弱了，这可能会导致消费支出减少。

高频经济公司首席美国经济学家Jim O’Sullivan表示：“如果美联储官员今天开会，他们是不会加息的。”

“但是五周之后还是有些可能的。”他说。

Trump victory sends Fed rate expectations plummeting

The shock victory of Donald Trump in the presidential election has roiled financial markets, creating new uncertainty about the economic outlook, which is anathema to the Federal Reserve.

The election result has raised doubts among investors that the central bank will follow through with its widely telegraphed interest-rate hike next month.

Trump’s victory increased volatility in the market. Implied volatility on the S&P 500SPX, +0.20%  , as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, +2.50%  , shot up.

“The Yellen Fed hates uncertainty, and falling stock prices, and tends to react to both by not doing what it had previously planned to do,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

Odds of a December Fed rate hike fell below 50% in the wake of Trump’s victory according to Bloomberg News, citing U.S. overnight indexed swaps. The odds were as high as 82% on Tuesday.

The CME’s FedWatch tool did not show such a steep drop, putting the odds of a December rate hike at 67%, down from over 71% prior to Election Day.

By the end of the day, stocks were in striking distance of all-time high. Long-dated U.S. Treasurys fell, propelling the 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.00% to trade above 2%.

Despite the market reaction, analysts said the likelihood of a December rate hike had been reduced. Shepherdson said he puts the odds of a December rate hike at “no more than one in three.”

He said that consumer and business confidence will likely decline in the wake of the election, which could be reflected in falling spending.

Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, said “if Fed officials were meeting today, they would not be raising rates.”

But he noted “a lot can happen in five weeks."

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-victory-creates-just-what-fed-abhors-uncertainty-2016-11-09