联邦基金期货合约：十二月加息板上钉钉

如果市场为关键合约的定价是正确的，那美联储一定会在下个月加息。

依据联邦基金期货合约的表现，美联储100%会加息，实际上可能性高达100.2%。美联储会将利率从0.25%-0.5%提高到0.5%-0.75%。（额外的0.2%的概率表明美联储还有很小的可能进行大幅度加息。）

美联储主席耶伦在上周表示，可能会在“不久后”加息，联邦基金期货合约的交易量变随之而动。

耶伦表示：“如果联邦公开市场委员会在加息问题上拖延太久，那么为了防止经济过热，可能必须突然地收紧货币政策。另外，联邦基金利率在目前的水平保持得太久也会鼓励过度冒险行为，最终破坏金融稳定。”

依照耶伦的说法，交易员们认为加息的幅度不会太大。

截至2017年9月，美联储加息到75个基本点至150个基本点之间的可能性为三分之一。换句话说，在明年的九个月中可能会加息一到两次。
 

100% probability of a December hike, Fed funds futures contracts show

The Federal Reserve is definitely lifting interest rates next month — if the market has priced a key contract correctly.

According to the trading of federal funds futures contracts, there’s a 100% chance — actually, a 100.2% chance — that the Fed will lift interest rates to a range between a half-point and three-quarters of a point, up from the current 25 to 50 basis points range. (The extra 0.2% implies there’s a very small chance the Fed could be even more aggressive.)

The trading comes in the wake of a number of speeches and comments from Federal Reserve officials, notably Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who last week said the central bank may lift interest rates “relatively soon.”

“Were the FOMC to delay increases in the federal funds rate for too long, it could end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of the Committee’s longer-run policy goals. Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and ultimately undermine financial stability,” Yellen said.

That said, traders don’t expect an aggressive course of hiking.

By the end of September 2017, they see roughly a two-thirds chance the Fed funds rate will be between 75 basis points and 150 basis points. In other words, after December, there will only be one or two more hikes over the next nine months.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/100-probability-of-a-december-hike-fed-funds-futures-contracts-show-2016-11-22