联邦基金期货合约:十二月加息板上钉钉

2016-11-23 14:03:15

MW-FA400_yellen_20161117105514_MG.jpg

如果市场为关键合约的定价是正确的,那美联储一定会在下个月加息。

依据联邦基金期货合约的表现,美联储100%会加息,实际上可能性高达100.2%。美联储会将利率从0.25%-0.5%提高到0.5%-0.75%。(额外的0.2%的概率表明美联储还有很小的可能进行大幅度加息。)

美联储主席耶伦在上周表示,可能会在“不久后”加息,联邦基金期货合约的交易量变随之而动。

耶伦表示:“如果联邦公开市场委员会在加息问题上拖延太久,那么为了防止经济过热,可能必须突然地收紧货币政策。另外,联邦基金利率在目前的水平保持得太久也会鼓励过度冒险行为,最终破坏金融稳定。”

依照耶伦的说法,交易员们认为加息的幅度不会太大。

截至2017年9月,美联储加息到75个基本点至150个基本点之间的可能性为三分之一。换句话说,在明年的九个月中可能会加息一到两次。
 

100% probability of a December hike, Fed funds futures contracts show

The Federal Reserve is definitely lifting interest rates next month — if the market has priced a key contract correctly.

According to the trading of federal funds futures contracts, there’s a 100% chance — actually, a 100.2% chance — that the Fed will lift interest rates to a range between a half-point and three-quarters of a point, up from the current 25 to 50 basis points range. (The extra 0.2% implies there’s a very small chance the Fed could be even more aggressive.)

The trading comes in the wake of a number of speeches and comments from Federal Reserve officials, notably Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who last week said the central bank may lift interest rates “relatively soon.”

“Were the FOMC to delay increases in the federal funds rate for too long, it could end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly to keep the economy from significantly overshooting both of the Committee’s longer-run policy goals. Moreover, holding the federal funds rate at its current level for too long could also encourage excessive risk-taking and ultimately undermine financial stability,” Yellen said.

That said, traders don’t expect an aggressive course of hiking.

By the end of September 2017, they see roughly a two-thirds chance the Fed funds rate will be between 75 basis points and 150 basis points. In other words, after December, there will only be one or two more hikes over the next nine months.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/100-probability-of-a-december-hike-fed-funds-futures-contracts-show-2016-11-22
 

 承诺与声明

兄弟财经是一间香港注册的正规公司,是全球历史最悠久,信誉最好的外汇返佣代理。多年来兄弟财经兢兢业业,稳定发展,获得了全球各地投资者的青睐与信任。历经十年的积淀,打造了我们在业内良好的品牌信誉。

本文所含内容及观点仅为一般信息,并无任何意图被视为买卖任何货币或差价合约的建议或请求。文中所含内容及观点均可能在不被通知的情况下更改。本文并未考 虑任何特定用户的特定投资目标、财务状况和需求。任何引用历史价格波动或价位水平的信息均基于我们的分析,并不表示或证明此类波动或价位水平有可能在未来 重新发生。本文所载信息之来源虽被认为可靠,但作者不保证它的准确性和完整性,同时作者也不对任何可能因参考本文内容及观点而产生的任何直接或间接的损失承担责任。

外汇和其他产品保证金交易存在高风险,不适合所有投资者。亏损可能超出您的账户注资。增大杠杆意味着增加风险。在决定交易外汇之前,您需仔细考虑您的财务目标、经验水平和风险承受能力。文中所含任何意见、新闻、研究、分析、报价或其他信息等都仅 作与本文所含主题相关的一般类信息.

同时, 兄弟财经不提供任何投资、法律或税务的建议。您需向合适的顾问征询所有关于投资、法律或税务方面的事宜。

企业QQ:4006992887