美联储罗森格伦:十二月加息合理

2016-11-16 16:18:36

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波士顿联储主席罗森格伦周二表示,考虑到当前的通胀增长和近乎充分就业的市场,下月加息的预期还是“有道理的”。

“就业市场接近完全就业,通胀水平也接近美联储的目标,期货市场十二月的紧缩概率提高也不足为怪,由于大选带来的波动,概率在75%上下。”他说:“下个月没有重大的负面消息,十二月市场紧缩的预测是合情合理的。”

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罗森格伦推动利率上涨已经有一阵子了。

他对美联储九月维持利率不变的决定表示反对,他只在十月附议了大多数人的投票,因为“我认为美国联邦公开市场委员的声明与十二月的高概率紧缩预期是一致的,市场预期也是如此。”

罗森格伦在周二的演讲中详细地分析了就业市场。他指出,获得职位的失业劳动力数量已经趋于平稳。劳动力的老龄化意味着劳动力的增长可能不够“强劲”。

还有多位美联储官员在本周发表讲话,美联储主席耶伦将在周四发布讲话。

Fed’s Rosengren: December rate hike expectations are ‘plausible’

Expectations of an interest-rate hike next month are “plausible” given rising inflation and a job market near full employment, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said on Tuesday.

“With the economy close to full employment and inflation nearing the Fed’s target, it was not surprising that the futures market’s probability of a tightening in December has been high—in the vicinity of 75%—with some volatility around the election,” he said. “Absent significant negative economic news over the next month, the market’s assessment of the likelihood of tightening in December seems plausible.”

Rosengren has been pushing for an interest-rate hike for some time.

He dissented in September from the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, and only voted with the majority in October because “I felt the changes in the FOMC statement were well aligned with the notion (and the market perception) of a high likelihood of tightening in December.”
 
Rosengren in his speech on Tuesday discussed the jobs market at great length. He pointed out that the number of people flowing into employment after being out of the labor force has leveled off. The aging of the workforce means growth in the labor force may not be “robust” going forward, Rosengren said.

There are a number of Federal Reserve officials speaking this week, with the highlight being Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s testimony on Capitol Hill on Thursday.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-rosengren-december-rate-hike-expectations-are-plausible-2016-11-15
 

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