美联储官员提醒投资者当心市场波动

周三的会议记录显示，大多数美联储官员都认为在金融局势稳定之前，美股市场的下滑会出现暂停。

美股市场在2016年起步艰难，其他市场也是动荡频繁。

1月27日结束的联邦公开市场委会会议记录显示：“很多投资者发现，相较于上行冲击，货币政策很难对通胀降低后的冲击进行有效的回应。” 

美联储中只有少部分官员，愿意在美联储十年内首次加息之后，等待股市疲软的结束，因为他们认为市场可以使股票的估值更接近历史标准。 

美联储政策委员会的某些投票成员更支持新一轮的加息。 

他们强调，他们需要在新一轮加息之前，看到通胀率升至2%的直接证据。 

会议记录描绘出了美联储在战争迷雾中的挣扎。他们唯一能确定的事情就是，不确定性增加了。

去年十二月，美联储对美国的前景十分乐观。官员们预测在2016年内，25个基点的加息会出现四次。 

但在今年一月，美联储面临的担忧越来越多。除了股票价格疲软，信用价差的扩大，美元汇率进一步上升，金融市场的波动也在持续增加。 

如果这些金融现象持续下去，它们的影响甚至会强过货币紧缩政策。 

有些人担心，近来股价下跌会导致消费性支出减少，从而导致全球经济疲软。 

某些官员称他们的业务往来远低于预期水平，这可能会导致资本支出计划更加谨慎。 

某些官员担心，市场参与者会误以为加息是一成不变的而不是视情况而定的。 

为了解决这个问题，官员们考虑给经济预期增加扇形图表，从而向公众传达他们对预期的不确定性。 

但有些官员对此表示反对，他们考虑是否要将联邦基金利率降为负值。 

为了对抗经济下行风险的任何消极利率政策，都是不受华尔街欢迎的。 

最后，美联储决定继续传达他们对经济前景的不确定性。 

美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦在上周讨论了她的证词提交给国会的可能性。 

下一次联邦公开市场委员会投票将在3月16日的会议中进行。市场参与者大多认为美联储不会加息。 

Fed officials alarmed about market gyrations, minutes show

The decline in the U.S. stock market warranted a pause until financial conditions settled down, most members at the Federal Reserve agreed, according to minutes of the last meeting released Wednesday. 

The U.S. stock market got off to a rocky start in 2016, and other markets have shown volatility. 

“Several participants noted that monetary policy was less well positioned to respond effectively to shocks that reduce inflation or real activity than to upside shocks, and that waiting for additional information regarding the underlying strength of economic activity and prospects for inflation before taking the next step to reduce policy accommodation would be prudent,” the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting that ended Jan. 27 said. 

Only a small minority of Federal Reserve officials were willing to look past the stock market weakness that emerged after the U.S. central bank raised interest rates for the first time in almost a decade, arguing that it could be the result of bringing equity valuations more in line with historical norms. 

A few doves, who are voting member of the Fed policy committee, were forceful about what it would take to support another rate hike. 

They stressed they wanted to see “direct evidence” that inflation was rising toward 2% before they would back another rate increase. 

The minutes portray a central bank struggling with the fog of war. About the only thing they could agree on was that uncertainty had increased. 

In December, the Fed was much more positive about the outlook. Officials penciled in four quarter-point rate hikes for 2016. 

But in January, Fed officials faced a wall of worry. In addition to weak stock prices, there was a widening of credit spreads, a further rise in the dollar and an increase in financial market volatility. 

“The effects of these financial developments, if they were to persist, may be roughly equivalent to those from further tightening in monetary policy,” the minutes said. 

There was concern that the recent drop in stock prices could damp consumer spending, which had been expected to power the economy through any global weakness. 

Some Fed officials said their business contacts were less optimistic about the outlook and this could result in more-cautious capital spending plans. 

Some on the Fed were worried that the market viewed these rate hikes as set-in-stone and not dependent on the outlook. 

To get around this communications problem, Fed officials discussed adding fan charts to their economic forecasts to convey to the public the uncertainty surrounding their forecasts. 

But this proposal ran afoul of a sore point for Fed officials, whether the band around the path of the federal funds rate should extend below zero. 

The possible move to negative rates to combat any future downturn is unpopular with many on Wall Street. 

In the end, the Fed decided to continue to work on a way to communicate their own uncertainty about the economic outlook. 

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen discussed the possibility in her testimony to Congress last week. 

The next time the FOMC votes is at the two-day meeting ending March 16. Most in the market expect the Fed will not increase interest rates. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源： http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-selloff-worried-all-but-a-couple-on-fed-minutes-show-2016-02-17