国家经济研究统计局对“经济衰退”的定义是：整体经济活动出现明显下降，持续时间超过几个月，在 GDP、实际收入、就业率、工业产品及批发零售方面都有直观表现。我们当前面临的问题是：美国经济开始衰退了吗？如果没有，那距离经济衰退也不远了吗？针对上述两个问题，瑞士信贷的回答是否定的。瑞士信贷的全球市场经济学家认为，美国经济将在2016年上涨2个百分点。
就业率的数据就是最大的证据。二月中旬，每周失业人数的四周移动平均线跌至273,000点，下跌了8000个点。而一月份的失业率也跌至4.9%，在此之前，失业率已经连续三个月维持在5%附近。与此同时，平均时薪也上涨了0.5%。零售休闲和酒店行业的时薪涨幅最大。
美国的采矿和能源版块承受了巨大的压力，其中油价和大宗商品价格下跌最为严重。费城联邦储备银行的数据显示，美国多个州的采矿和钻井都遇到了难题，尤其是阿拉斯加、北达科他、和路易斯安那州，这些地区的经济活动都大幅减少。采矿和能源版块的疲软也对制造业产生了影响，因为公司降低了原油、天然气的开采和钻井的设备支出。整体来讲，在过去的12个月中，美国23个工业产品分支中的8个都受到了影响。
而各州的经济前景却是一片光明。在经济衰退期间，多数州的经济都会开始收缩。但在2015年的最后三个月，美国40个州的经济皆有增长。制造业自九月以来，采购经理人指数 (PMI) 已跌至50点以下，但其中最重要的“新订单”指数却上涨至51.5点，这是经济增长的迹象。瑞士信贷分析家认为：“美国经济确实会受全球经济疲软的影响，但充足的国内需求避免了产量的骤减。”
并不是说2016年绝对不会出现金融危机。在2016年席卷金融市场的风险厌恶情绪足以推动美国公司裁员减支。能源相关产业的问题也可能集中在一起，引发更大的问题，尤其是能源版块的高杠杆违约状况可能会导致信贷紧缩。但瑞士信贷的经济学家们认为，出口额在 GDP 中所占比例不大，只要国内的家庭收支保持健康，经济衰退是很难发生的。在他们看来，上述问题都不会使美国经济偏离缓步上涨的轨道。
The Case Against a U.S. Recession
The National Bureau for Economic Research defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.” And the question of the hour: Has the United States entered a recession? If not, is it about to? To both questions, Credit Suisse answers no. The bank’s Global Market economists expect the U.S. economy to grow by 2 percent in 2016.
The employment picture provides the most compelling argument against a recession. The four-week moving average of weekly jobless claims fell by 8,000 to 273,000 in mid-February, the lowest level since November. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, dipped to 4.9 percent in January, after holding steady at around 5 percent for three months, while average hourly earnings rose 0.5 percent. The retail and leisure and hospitality industries, in particular, enjoyed strong job growth. “While we may not be there yet, this is the sort of [monthly employment] report we would expect once the economy reaches full employment,” says Jeremy Schwartz, of Credit Suisse’s Global Strategy and Economics team.
The U.S. economy has certainly shown signs of stress in the mining and energy sectors, which are struggling with declining oil and commodity prices. A handful of U.S. states where mining and drilling have large footprints – such as Alaska, North Dakota and Louisiana – have seen their economic activity decline, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. The weakness in the mining and energy sectors has also had knock-on effects on manufacturing, as firms reduce spending on capital equipment used for oil and gas exploration and drilling. Overall, eight of 23 subcomponents of U.S. industrial production have contracted in the last 12 months.
With respect to state economic activity, however, the broader picture is brighter. During recessions, most state economies typically contract. In the last three months of 2015, by contrast, the economies of 40 U.S. states have actually expanded. On the manufacturing front, the purchasing managers index (PMI) has been below 50 since September, but its crucial “new orders” component rose to 51.5 in January, indicating positive growth. “The U.S. is clearly being affected by global weakness, but we expect decent domestic demand growth to prevent a sharp contraction in production,” say the bank’s analysts.
The risk of a recession in 2016 isn’t zero. For starters, the risk aversion that has been roiling financial markets in 2016 could escalate enough to cause U.S. companies to cut back on hiring and investment. It’s also possible that the concentrated problems in energy-related businesses could infect the larger economy, particularly if defaults in the highly leveraged energy sector lead to tighter overall credit conditions. As for global headwinds, they will continue to buffet the U.S. economy, but Credit Suisse economists say that exports are too small a percentage of GDP for global woes to throw the economy into recession if domestic household incomes and spending remain healthy. In their view, it is more likely that none of the above scenarios will throw the economy off its modest growth track.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：