Dan Moskowitz  2016年2月3日

永远没有尽头。不管你告诉一个人多少次不要尝试捞底或者接住一把下落的刀子，他们总是想成为英雄。请记住即使在石油捞底时你是正确的，如果你始终保持这种在市场中捞底的心态，那么在股票和ETF中你真正正确的会是多少次呢？最终你将成为一个失败者。如果你想从市场中赚钱，那么你需要跟随趋势，但是要把资金平均分配到每一个策略上，使他们都有钱可用，以维持你的购买力。

或者你需要像巴菲特一样只在合适的价格买入好公司的股票。稍后将做详细介绍。

你可能在2009到2015的牛市中表现良好，但是你要意识到，任何人都可能在那个时间周期中做的很好。这个顺风车已经结束了。为了在当前市场中赚钱，你需要更加了解经济状况，这将对你的投资产生影响。当然，你更不可能排除美联储的影响。

石油形势没有变化：供过于求。这将在短时间内不会改变。相对持续反弹的唯一希望是未来的一年中出现一个由于失败引起的行业反弹。这可能发生在下半年，在期货合约到期之后。然而，这不意味着你应该投资石油。

这是一个难题。石油持续反弹的唯一机会是需求回归。发生这种情况的时候，代替能源可能已经取得显著的进展。关注绿色能源的一代将不可能有推动老派能源创新的动力。事情都会发生改变，如果你不改变，你注定会失败。

目前石油需求的现状是每个经济体都在遭受人口老龄化的困扰，这表现在消费者支出上。中国，这个近年来世界经济增长的最大动力正在出现疲软，最近的负面新闻是12月的制造业PMI降低，这是连续六个月出现降低。这是因为没有需求。整体上的需求缺乏是石油持续降低的原因。

美孚公司（XOM）刚刚公布糟糕的营业数据。与此同时，巴菲特再次加持了Phillips 66 股票（PSX）。这意味着PSX存在买入机会吗？跟随历史上最成功的投资者可靠吗？下面将是答案和理由。

下面所有的数据都截止到2016年2月3日。

最近结果

美孚最近公布2015财年盈利162亿美元。这很不错，但是很难与2014财年的325亿美元相比。第四季度的业绩更不令人满意，利润下跌58%。

英国石油公司的情况更加糟糕，2015财年收入比2014财年下降91%。该公司2015财年亏损65亿美元，第四季度亏损22亿美元。股票下跌了8.45%。

这很简单：你为什么会投资一个刚刚亏损65亿美元的公司呢？投资一个增长的亏损公司是因为它增长巨大并在将来盈利。这是投资当前亏损的大型企业的另一种方式。

英国石油公司没有巨大增长，而且在短时间内也不会有。在这种情况下，该公司正在积极裁员。不幸的是，这种情况在能源领域很普遍，如果你从大局看，这将更加伤害消费者，进一步降低需求。我们正处在一个恶性循环。具有讽刺意味的是，除此之外我们别无选择。

英国石油公司CEO Bob Dudley最近曾说：“石油下跌将维持很长时间，但不会是永远的。”他已经给出了答案。

巴菲特理论

如果你在过去几十年跟随巴菲特的投资，你很容易变成一个亿万富翁。这可能马上会让你想买入PSX股票，但是事情不是这样的。

由于多样化和质量管理，PSX表现比其同行好得多，但是你不能期待它在一个通缩的熊市市场上涨。采纳我的与巴菲特对立的观点看起来很荒谬，但是我坚持这一观点。

巴菲特曾多次承认他不怎么关注宏观经济环境。他简单的投资那些表现杰出的公司，最终获利。他是正确的，但是这个“最终”可能是很长的一段时间。

巴菲特在历史最大的经济繁荣阶段发家。因此，他不需要太关注宏观经济情况。他只需要选择出高质量的公司。这很正确。问题是经济繁荣阶段已经结束。这也是巴菲特在经济危机中表现不好的原因。他沾了高宽松货币政策的光。但是这次很难出现类似的情况。

PSX在去年增值6.14%，这对任何能源相关的公司来说都很出色。PSX被认为在几种情况下将会上涨，但是有太多的外部压力。事实上，PSX在过去三个月中下跌15.29%。对PSX积极的是其股息收益仅为较低的2.79%。这可能有点反常，但是这将帮助Phillips 66避免出现债务问题。不过，PSX的风险还是太大。期待它比同行业出现更多的反弹，但是股票升值在明年很难实现。

总结

记住“现在开始寻找在石油公司盈利空间还太早。包括上面提到的三家公司，英国石油公司的风险最大。你甚至在长远看来需要更加小心，因为在全球对石油需求改善时代替产品可能会抢占份额。这在美国有明显迹象，中国正在努力控制污染，印度政府正在增加代替能源的投资。这是三个很重要的例子。这里所写的都是个人观点，在投资之前请做好自己的研究。

Is Buffett's Bet on Oil Right for You? (XOM, PSX) 

By Dan Moskowitz | February 03, 2016 

It never ends. No matter how many times you try to teach someone not to try to call a bottom, or to catch a falling knife, they still continue to attempt to be a hero. Please understand that even if you were correct in calling a bottom in oil, if you have this mindset of always attempting to call a bottom in markets, stocks and ETFs, how many times will you actually be correct? You will eventually end up a loser. If you want to make money in the market, then you need to follow the trends, but with a conservative dollar-cost-averaging strategy where cash is always available, which maintains your buying power.

Or you could be like Warren Buffet and simply buy good companies at a good price. More on that later...

It’s possible, if not likely, that you did well during the 2009-2015 bull market, but you need to recognize that anyone could have thrown three darts at a printed page of the S&P 500 and done well during that time frame. The free ride is over. In order to make money in this market, you need to be more aware of economic conditions, which will then have an impact on investments. And, of course, you can’t rule out the Federal Reserve impact.

The oil situation remains the same: oversupply and lack of demand. This will not change anytime soon. The only hope for a relatively sustainable bounce over the next year is if there is an industry shakeout due to failures. This could happen in the second half of the year, after futures contracts expire. However, this doesn’t mean you should invest in oil.

Here’s the dilemma. The only chance for a real sustainable rally in oil is if demand returns. By the time that happens, alternative energy could have made significant progress. There is no chance that a generation focused on being green is going to have a drive to innovate in the world of old-school energy. Everything changes, and if you don’t change with it, you’re doomed to fail. 

As far as the current situation for demand for oil, every major economy in the world is suffering from aging populations, which slows consumer spending. China, which had been the big growth driver for years, is showing weakness, and the most recent negative news is manufacturing PMI coming in at 49.4 in December vs. 49.7 in December. That makes six consecutive months of contraction — any reading below 50 shows contraction. This is happening because demand isn’t there. That overall lack of consumer demand is also why oil continues to move lower.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and BP p.l.c. (BP) just reported poor results. At the same time, Warren Buffett has once again increased his stake in Phillips 66 (PSX). Does this mean a buying opportunity exists in PSX? Would following the best investor throughout history make sense? Answer below, as well as justification for the answer.

All numbers below as of Feb. 3, 2016. 

Recent Results

Exxon Mobil recently reported earnings of $16.2 billion for fiscal-year 2015. Not bad, but not good compared to $32.5 billion in earnings in fiscal-year 2014. Q4 results weren’t impressive either, with earnings plunging 58%.

BP’s situation was worse, with the bottom line falling 91% for fiscal-year 2015 on a year-over-year basis. The company reported a loss of $6.5 billion and $2.2 billion in the fourth quarter. And the stock responded with an 8.45% decline.

This is very simple: Why would you invest in a company that just lost $6.5 billion? It’s one thing to invest in a growth company that’s losing money because it’s growing on the top line and could turn a profit in the future. It’s another thing to invest in a one-time giant that is now losing money. 

There is no top-line growth for BP, and there won’t be for a while. That being the case, BP is aggressively slashing headcount. Unfortunately, this was expected throughout the energy space, and if you look at the big picture, it means more hurt consumers, which further slows demand and fuels deflation. We are stuck in a vicious cycle. The irony is that the vicious cycle is the only way out.

By the way, BP’s CEO Bob Dudley recently stated, “Oil lower for longer, but not low forever.” He just gave you the answer.

The Buffett Theory

If you had followed Buffett’s investments over the past few decades, you would easily be a millionaire. This might immediately make you think that you should initiate a position in PSX, but that’s not the case.

Thanks to diversification and quality management, PSX might hold up better than its peers, but you shouldn’t expect it to hold up in a deflationary bear market. Listening to me versus Warren Buffett would seem absurd, but I stand by this call. 

Warren Buffett has often admitted that he doesn’t pay much attention to macroeconomic conditions. He simply invests in exceptional companies, knowing that he will eventually make money. He’s correct, but “eventually” in this environment has the potential to be a very long time. 

Buffett made his money during the biggest economic boom in history. Therefore, he didn’t need to pay much attention to macroeconomic conditions. He just needed to pick high-quality companies. That makes sense. The problem is that the booming-economy-era is over. This is why Buffett didn’t perform well during the financial crisis. He was saved by highly accommodative monetary policy. That isn't likely to be the case this time around. 

PSX has appreciated 6.14% over the past year, which is excellent for any energy-related company. PSX was written about bullishly here on several occasions, but there is too much external pressure for that opinion to remain. In fact, PSX has slid 15.29% over the past three months. One positive for PSX is a low dividend yield of 2.79%. That might seem counterintuitive, but this will help prevent Phillips 66 from running into debt problems down the road. Nevertheless, PSX is still too risky here. Expect it to offer more resiliency than peers, but stock appreciation over the next year will be difficult to achieve.

The Bottom Line

To keep it simple: It’s too early to begin looking for bargains in oil companies. That includes the three companies listed above, with BP being the riskiest. You even have to be careful over the long haul because alternative energy will steal share by the time global demand for oil improves. This is clearly evident in the United States; China is trying to curb pollution; and the Indian government is focused on increasing investment in alternative energy. Those are just three important examples. Everything written here is a matter of opinion. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/020316/buffetts-bet-oil-right-you-xom-psx.asp