大意失荆州。高盛分析家认为，OPEC 错过了降低石油产量，并将油价维持在每桶40美元的最佳时机。
Damien Courvalin 和 Jeffrey Currie 等大宗商品分析家认为，石油联盟根本不会削减石油产量，即使他们这样做了，也挽回不了油价。
他们在报告中说道：“即使 OPEC 有削减产量的想法，但是考虑到美国甚至全球都在增加库存，美国墨西哥湾沿岸也在增加储存能力，OPEC 现在采取任何措施都来不及了，新一轮油价下跌已无可避免。”
他们还补充到：“在宣布降低石油产量之后，油价可能稍有回升，但在库存下降之前，石油期货曲线仍会保持溢价状态，就像1998-1999年亚洲金融危机时一样。”在现货石油价格低于期货石油价格时，溢价就会出现。
因此，银行再次强调，油价可能在很长时间内维持较低的水平，高成本的生产商会被逐渐淘汰。这个“转变阶段”需要油价维持在每桶40美元附近，石油公司在这一价位会经受财务上的压力，当油价跌至20美元时，公司便难以为继了。
他们补充道：“这个阶段的特点是波动剧烈、没有趋势，而且会出现历史最低价。”
这个结论是在上周原油骤涨4%、布伦特原油飙升8%之后得出的，那时 OPEC 和非 OPEC 制造商正在为是否削减产量而争论不休。然后高盛集团提出了一套完整的理论来证明石油联盟不会同意降低产量，并表明降低产量无异于自掘坟墓。
举例来讲，OPEC 在2014年11月和2015年12月决定维持石油产量不变，这是为了中期收益的最大化。虽然高产低价会对短期收益带来巨大冲击，但这是应对高成本非 OPEC 生产商的必要之举。
14个月的等待终于开花结果，在几周前油价跌破每桶40美元时，非 OPEC 国家的制造商开始降低产量。
这意味着降低产量会破坏 OPEC 的计划，反而帮助到石油联盟之外的国家。这也为美国为首的其他制造商提供了增加产量抢占市场份额的机会。
今年一月，伊朗在制裁解除后迅速提高产量，这对 OPEC 的任何行动都会产生影响。伊朗官方声称并未打算涌入市场，但他们的目标仍是侵略性的。上周，一名官员称伊朗在每天的石油产量增加150万桶之前是不会考虑减产的。
因此，减产计划还要对伊朗的增产行为进行调节，但考虑到伊朗同沙特直接的紧张局势，这个协议是极难达成的。
A big reason it’s too late for OPEC to cut production
You snooze, you lose. OPEC may have missed an opportunity to cut oil production, likely leaving oil prices stuck under $40 a barrel for the next five months, analysts at Goldman Sachs warn.
In a note out on Monday, the commodity analysts, led by Damien Courvalin and Jeffrey Currie, argued that not only is the oil cartel highly unlikely to cut output but even if it did, the move would do little to push prices higher.
“Given the likely time necessary to enact such cuts, the continued large builds in U.S. and global inventories and the fast pace at which U.S. Gulf Coast spare storage capacity is filling, it may already be too late for OPEC producers to be able to prevent another large decline in prices,” they said in the report.
“While prices may rally initially upon announcement, we would expect this move to fade and the oil forward curve to remain in contango until inventories decline, just as was the case [during the Asian crisis] in 1998-1999,” they added. Contango occurs when the spot price of oil is lower than the futures price.
As a result, the bank reiterated the view that prices need to stay low for longer to balance the market and weed out production from high-cost producers. This “inflection phase” requires that oil prices remain between $40 a barrel — the level where companies are experiencing financial stress — and $20 — the level where producers experience operational stress — until the second half of 2016, the analysts said.
“This phase will be characterized by a highly volatile and trend-less market with the price lows likely still to be set,” they added.
The observation comes after crude oil CLH6, +0.59% jumped more than 4% and Brent LCOJ6, +0.49% surged almost 8% last week on chatter OPEC and non-OPEC producers were considering a coordinated production cut. However, Goldman Sachs provided a whole host of reasons the cartel won’t agree to change output and why a cut ultimately would be “self-defeating”.
For example, the decision by OPEC in November 2014 and again in December 2015 to sustain production at high levels is about maximizing revenue over the medium term, the analysts said. While the combination of high production and low prices hurts in the short term, it was “necessary in the face of strongly growing higher-cost non-OPEC production.”
“And after a 14-month wait, the strategy is finally bearing fruit, with non-OPEC producer guidance pointing to production declines since oil prices fell below $40 a barrel a few weeks ago,” they said.
That means an output cut to bring prices back above that level would undermine OPEC’s strategy and instead help countries outside the cartel. There’s also the potential for other producers — primarily the U.S. — to quickly respond and ramp up production to win market share.
Another significant hurdle to any OPEC action is the production increase in Iran after sanctions on the country were lifted in January. Iranian officials have indicated they don’t intend to flood the market, but their targets remain aggressive. An Iranian oil official said last week Tehran won’t consider a reduction until its exports have increased by 1.5 million barrels a day over current levels, according to a report from Dow Jones.
“As a result, a production cut would likely need to accommodate continued growth in Iranian production, an agreement which seems unlikely given recent tensions with Saudi Arabia,” they said.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：