对于中国的高级官员来讲，只要守住正确的政治方向，就能保住铁饭碗，他们被解雇的消息几乎闻所未闻。但一周之前，中国证监会主席肖刚被免职，让所有人大吃一惊。
在肖刚的监管下，股票泡沫已经膨胀破裂。他在2013年初成为中国证券监管委员会 (CSRC) 主席，而证券市场在2014年中陷入疯狂，并在2015年中彻底崩盘，股市蒸发了5万亿美元。更糟糕的是，在股市暴涨和暴跌的时候，都有他的手笔。
在股票上涨的时候，他扮演的是活力十足的拉拉队长。在股票价格涨到顶峰，即将崩溃之前，他将股市戏称为“改革牛”，认为这是在响应政府的经济改革计划，实际上却是镜花水月。他还错估了市场风险，认为杠杆购买的股票已在可控范围内，而实际情况却已达到了前所未有的水平。在股市下跌的过程中，他采取熔断机制试图降低损失，最终因恐慌加剧、大量抛售而不得不取消。
近几个月流言四起，传说高层领导已对肖刚失去信心。投资者称给他起了外号叫“消光”，听起来和他本名很像。路透社在1月18日报道称，他已提交了辞呈。但最终批准的却是李克强总理。现在，肖刚成了股市和李克强总理之间的缓冲带，很多重大事件的责任都会归咎到他的身上。
肖刚的位置将由刘士余接任。刘士余刚刚被任命为中国农业银行行长，此前曾任农行副行长。他最希望的莫过于最糟的时期已经过去：蓝筹股沪深300指数自去年六月的顶峰下跌了40%。但在大量卖空之后，小盘股的成交价仍是去年收益的90倍，这表明价格修正还有很长的路要走（倍数达到40倍甚至更低才是合理的）。
除此之外，刘先生将接手一项艰巨的任务：修改首次公开招募 (IPO) 制度。今年来，当局试图将单一机构审批制度转变为注册制。在审批制度下，监管机构有权决定哪家公司、何时、以何种价格上市，但在注册制度下，这些决策将有市场（承销商、公司及投资者）来决定。
审批制容易引发贪污，因为监管机构被赋予了极大的权力。但是中国的市场波动极大，缺少对投资者必要的法律保护，因此注册制可能会导致大量公司为了圈钱而上市，股市更会一泻千里。面对困难，肖刚先生犹豫不决，刘士余先生则需大刀阔斧。
China’s Stockmarket Fail to the Chief
AS LONG as they stay on the right side of political battles, officials who reach the exalted heights of Chinese government can generally count on job security. Firing them in the middle of their term for poor performance is almost unheard of. The removal last week of Xiao Gang, China’s securities regulator (pictured), more than two years before the end of his term, was thus remarkable.
It was bad enough that a stockmarket bubble had swollen and burst on Mr Xiao’s watch. He became chief of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) in early 2013; the stockmarket rally began in mid-2014 and turned into a mania before collapsing in mid-2015, wiping out some $5 trillion in wealth. Worse, his fingerprints were all over the market’s excesses, when it soared and when it fell.
On the way up, he was an energetic cheerleader. In the months before the crash, when prices were already unsustainably high, Mr Xiao described the rally as a “reform bull”—that is, a fair response to the government’s economic-reform plans, however vague and incremental they actually were. He also missed the dangers in the market, arguing that leveraged buying of shares was under control, when in fact it had reached unprecedented levels. On the way down, he was the guiding force behind the adoption of a circuit-breaker mechanism intended to slow losses. This ended up exacerbating panic-selling and had to be scrapped.
For months, rumours spread that senior leaders had lost faith in Mr Xiao. Investors took to referring to him as Xiao Rectum, which sounds very similar to his actual name. Reuters reported on January 18th that he had offered to resign. Yet the final decision to remove him from the CSRC is still a risky one for Li Keqiang, the premier. Until now, the bumbling Mr Xiao stood as a buffer between the stockmarket and Mr Li. In the event of more market mayhem, blame will now filter upstairs.
Mr Xiao’s successor is Liu Shiyu, who most recently was chairman of Agricultural Bank of China, a big state-owned bank, and previously was a deputy governor of the central bank. He is doubtless hoping that the worst is past: the CSI-300 index of blue-chip shares has shed more than 40% of its value since last June’s peak. Yet even after the sell-off, small-cap shares still trade at nearly 90 times last year’s earnings, which suggests that the correction may have further to run (a multiple of 40 or so would be more reasonable).
What’s more, Mr Liu has the unenviable task of changing the way that initial public offerings (IPOs) are conducted. For years the authorities have mulled shifting from a system in which these are individually authorised to one in which eligible firms simply register their intention to list. Under the former, regulators control which companies get to list, when and roughly at what price. In the latter, these decisions are given over to the market (in effect, to underwriters, firms and investors).
The authorisation system is prone to corruption because it gives regulators undue power. But in a volatile market with scant legal protection for investors, the fear is that registration will be abused by unscrupulous firms and so could be even more damaging. Mr Xiao handled this dilemma by dragging his feet. Mr Liu will be under pressure to move more boldly.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
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