投资多样化之谜

2017-07-18 16:22:20

Adinah Brown

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在世界上的任何地方,任何一本描述资产管理的书都强调多样化的重要性,你的财务顾问可能会担心你的资产配置,试图将你的资产分配到成长股、国际股票、各种ETF等等,这样你就可以免受某项资产暴跌的损害。因为你将鸡蛋分散到不同的篮子里,很多很多的篮子。

你的财务顾问是绝对正确的。如果你将所有的鸡蛋放在同一个篮子里,一旦有人踢翻了你的篮子,你就鸡飞蛋打、血本无归了。

多样性的目的不仅是使你免于风险,它会在降低风险的同时提高收益。这不是一个简单的过程,更准确地说是会涉及到各类资产的多样化分数计算,从而找到适合投资者的组合。

但若你是一个专业的投资者,就市场及交易的产品有深切的认知,多样性还会适合你吗?

让我们暂停一下,来思考多样性在生活中的应用。想一想那些创造出巨额财富的人,他们都是通过多样性实现的吗?他们每一个人都是找到最适合的领域然后坚持做下去直至成功。马克·扎克伯格会因为担心科技衰落而跑去教普拉提课程吗?

让我们引用巴菲特的勒布朗·詹姆斯类比来解释这一点。巴菲特说:“如果你的队伍中有勒布朗·詹姆斯,不要让他中途下场去给其他人腾位置。”

重点就在这里,如果你当前的投资已经能够为自己提供高额的回报,而且高额的回报会继续存在,那你会把钱取出来,然后投到那些明显达不到这么高回报率的产品中吗?

如果考虑到持有产品多样性分析的类别,结果就很明显了。对于主要的持有资产,你分析的目的是利润预期,你看重的是潜在获利能力。而你的多样化产品呢?你分析他们只是为了测试或了解多样性分数。也许你只是想要一个涉及多个市场板块的ETF。这里有你的利润目标吗?

你已经选择了主要持有资产,因为你非常相信它的获利能力。你的多样化持有资产只是为了对获利资产进行补充,从而达到平衡。

对于那些非专业投资者,他们的投资组合可能不是勒布朗·詹姆斯,因此多样性就很重要了。但是投资者都是为利而来。他们中大多数都喜欢波动性,因为他们可以从中找到低价买入和大量交易的机会。

我认识一个优秀的投资人,对于他来说,多样化就等于用詹姆斯·琼斯替换掉勒布朗·詹姆斯。在这种情况下,多样化与投资存在的理由是相对的。

所以,如果你身处投资游戏中,你的最佳选择是派勒布朗·詹姆斯打完全程。

The Myth of Diversification

Every risk management book in every corner of the world propounds the values of diversification. Your financial advisor is probably worrying about the weight of your assets and trying to balance them so that you get a healthy spread of growth stocks, international shares, broad ETF’s, bonds, or some other such thing that allows you to think that your immune from big drops, simply because you now have your eggs in many, many baskets.

And your financial advisor is 100% right. If you had all your eggs in one basket, and someone knocks over your basket, all your eggs are gone!

Diversification’s job is not just to protect you from risk. It seeks to provide higher returns AND lower risk. And this is not a simple process, but rather involves calculating the diversity scores between each asset to find the right correlation and then align this with the investor’s risk/reward profile.

But if you are a professional investor, with an intimate knowledge of the market and what you are trading, is diversification for you?

Let’s stop for a moment to think about applying diversification to life. Think about all the people that have created great wealth, and ask yourself, have they done it through diversification? Every last one of them found something that made them money and kept doing it until they were wealthy. Did Mark Zukerberg decide to switch to teaching Pilates in case his tech work fell through?

Actually, let’s use the Lebron James analogy postulated by none other than Warren Buffett to make this point. He said “If you have Lebron James on your team, don’t take him out of the game just to make room for someone else.”

This is the main point here. If you have an investment that has provided you with strong returns, and you expect will continue to make strong returns, would you take money out of this position to put it in a position that you don’t expect to make the same returns?

It’s telling when you think about the type of analysis that goes into identifying diversified holdings. For your primary holdings, you analyze them because of an expectation of profit. You have reviewed it primarily because of its profit potential. And your diversified holdings? Probably you analyzed the beta or checked that diversity score. Maybe you simply want an ETF in a completely different market sector. Is profit your primary objective here?

You have chosen your primary holdings because you strongly believe that it has profit potential. Your diversified holdings are simply because of the need to balance against the likely profitable holdings.
For someone that isn’t an investor, the profit holdings might not be Lebron James, and so diversification is critical. But an investor invests for profit. Most like volatility, since it gives them the chance to purchase low and plenty of volume to trade.

For someone who knows, and is a quality investor, diversity is the equivalent of taking out Lebron James and replacing him with James Jones (who is not as good a basketball player as Lebron, which is a massive understatement if you know basketball). In this case, diversification goes somewhat against the very raison d’etre of investing.

So if you are in the game of investing, your best play may be to ride Lebron James all the way to the title. Just like Cleveland did in 2016.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:https://www.leaprate.com/experts/adinah-brown/the-myth-of-diversification/
 

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