比特币的真实价值

2017-09-13 16:00:08

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随着比特币的热议,比特币/美元的价格在上周末突破了4980美元,而大多数加密货币交易所交易员等待买入的价格是5000美元。比特币的价格在2017年上涨了300%,但真正有趣的是比特币的迅速崛起也推动了其他区块链货币和技术的发展。所有加密货币的舞台都在几个月内扩张了数倍。

这就像2000年的互联网泡沫,已经突破了我的舒适区,我的优步司机甚至建议我投资这个最不确定却最有前途的加密货币。如果这还不是泡沫膨胀到极致的表现,我也无话可说。

实际情况是,任何人都不知道比特币的真实价值。

对很多技术和金融市场评论员来说,它是个方案,寻找着需要它来解决的问题。当前的货币估值都是基于对未来技术应用的预期。你拿它毫无办法,除非像黑市产品一样对待。我听说过各种价格,有5000美元、一万美元甚至一百万美元,但任何一个都没有现实基础。尤其是在当前的市场条件下,还有上百种货币可以迅速崛起甚至超越比特币,所有的估值都是抽象的。

Jason Bloomberg 6月26日在福布斯杂志中指出:“在人类商业历史中,从来没有任何一个资产的泡沫是没有内在价值的。”与之相对,比特币能提供的只有内在价值,因为网络世界的加密货币没有任何政府背书,没有人为它提供外在价值。

货币需求可以通过特定时间段内的货币交易量来判断,但是加密货币太过虚无缥缈,以至于无从判定。互联网泡沫产生的影响实在是太大了,大到让人无法忽视,它时刻提醒我,加密货币也会走上这条路。一旦加密货币普及,我们就能对虚拟货币进行真实的估价。现在是一片荒谬的非理性繁荣景象,要到那一天还要几周甚至几个月。显然,我不愿意花钱来探这条路。

The real value of Bitcoin

Adinah Brown

As debate continues on whether the B in Bitcoin is to be capitalised or not, the BTC/USD pair hit $4,980 over the weekend, which is actually $5,000 for most traders looking to buy on cryptocurrency exchanges once the spread is included. That the price has skyrocketed over 300% in 2017 alone is an impressive and well-known statistic, but what’s really interesting is that its meteoric rise has also pulled up other blockchain currencies and technologies. Everything in the cryptocurrency arena has risen hundreds of percentage points in value within a matter of months.

Resembling the .com bubble of 2000 far too much for my comfort level, my Uber driver is recommending taking a stake in the most obscure, but most promising cryptocurrency. If this is not an indication that we’re near the top of this massive speculative bubble, I don’t know what it is.

The reality is, nobody really knows how much each individual Bitcoin is fundamentally worth.

For many technology and financial markets commentators, it’s still a solution looking for a problem. Its current valuation is based on hypothetical and prospective uses for the technology. There is nothing you can do with it that you can’t already do with the US dollar, except perhaps deal in black-market goods. I’m hearing random valuation numbers thrown around, $5,000 US dollars per Bitcoin, $10,000, $1,000,000… but none of them seem to be grounded in fundamentals. These numbers become even more abstract when literally hundreds of other cryptocurrencies could easily rise up and take the market capitalisation crown away from Bitcoin.

As Jason Bloomberg notes in his June 26th article in Forbes, ‘Never before in the history of commerce has a speculative bubble developed around an asset that had no clear intrinsic value.’ Contrary to this, it could be argued that Bitcoin only offers intrinsic value, as the digital world cryptocurrency is not backed by any government inherently, giving it no extrinsic value.

Money demand can be assessed by the number of transactions a currency performs within a time frame, but with cryptocurrencies, this is also virtually impossible to determine. The resonance with .com bubble is just too strong to ignore, giving me every indication that this too will pop. Once it does, we might get a more realistic value of virtual currencies, though I’d say there’s roughly a couple of weeks to a couple of months left of this party, based off current sentiment and levels of irrational exuberance alone. Admittedly, I’m not willing to put money on this prediction.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:https://www.leaprate.com/experts/adinah-brown/real-value-bitcoin/
 

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