风险策略:金字塔加仓法

2017-02-08 16:11:36

金字塔加仓法是指随着价格沿着预想的方向移动而不断增加仓位。金字塔加仓法是一种极其激进的交易策略,仅适合全职的专业交易员,因为他们了解如何控制风险,会依照计划严格执行交易。金字塔加仓法必须严格按照测试好的方法来执行。

虽然金字塔加仓法可以在行情顺利时增加收益,但也会在行情反转时增加亏损,所以风险控制才是关键。在趋势反转时,回报/风险比例会瞬间降低。因为加仓改变了整个仓位的成本,每个单位的成本都会走向最后的价格,快速的价格反转会带来巨大的亏损。如果价格出现快速的波动甚至跳空,依照计划控制风险几乎是不可能的。

加仓的点位是依照趋势方向提前选定的。该点位是由波动通道、移动平均线、多种趋势线、逻辑图、阻力位穿透等多方因素决定的。

标准金字塔又称正向金字塔,起手一笔较大仓位,随后加仓逐渐减少。举例来讲,第一手买进100股,达到下一个入场点时买入50股,接下来25股,然后13股,共计188股。

倒金字塔又称等额金字塔,每笔交易的加仓量等额增加。举例来讲,如果第一步买入100股,那么随后依次买入100股、100股、100股,共计400股。但平均每股价格是在不断增加的,所以微小的价格反转会减少整体收益。较标准金字塔相比,倒金字塔提供的潜在收益更大,风险也更大。

反射式金字塔加仓法按部就班地在目标点位加仓,随着趋势的移动,增加的仓位不断减少,因此反射式金字塔不是纯粹的趋势追踪方法。如果价格顺势移动,反射式金字塔的盈利会少于标准金字塔和倒金字塔。

最大杠杆金字塔加仓法不断增加加仓规格,使利润和保证金要求最大化。这可能是最激进的策略,潜在的收益和风险也是最高的,但回报/风险比例却是最低的。该金字塔加仓法必须配合严格的退出策略,否则极易爆仓而血本无归。

Pyramiding: A Risky Strategy

Pyramiding is adding to positions as price moves in the desired trend direction. Pyramiding is a highly aggressive trading strategy suitable only for full-time professional traders who know how to control risks and have the discipline to execute a tested plan consistently. Pyramiding should be executed only according a predetermined and tested method which includes an effective stop loss.

Although pyramiding increases profits if the trend continues as hoped, pyramiding also increases losses if the trend reverses, so risk control is key. Reward/risk tradeoffs quickly turn against the pyramid trader when the price trend reverses. Because adding to positions changes the total cost of the entire position on a per-unit basis toward the last price, a quick reversal to the original entry price can result in a significant loss. And if the price changes direction quickly and steeply, such as on a gap or fast market, it can be impossible or difficult to limit risk according to plan.

The signal to add to positions may be triggered at predetermined price points that confirm the trend direction. Such price points might be based on volatility bands, moving averages, a variety of trendlines, logical chart points, penetration of resistance levels, and so on.

The standard pyramid, which is also known as the scaled-down pyramid or upright pyramid, starts with a large initial position and is followed by predetermined additions that decrease systematically in size as price moves in the indicated trend direction. For example, if the initial entry was for 100 shares, then as price moves to the next predetermined level add 50 more shares, then 25 more at the next level, then 13 more, for a total of 188 shares.

The inverted pyramid, which is also known as the equal amounts pyramid, adds to an initial position in equal share-size increments. For example, if the initial entry was for 100 shares, then as price moves to the next predetermined level add 100 more, then if the price continues 100 more, then 100 more, for a total of 400. Here, however, the average cost per share is much higher, such that a smaller price reversal eliminates all profit. The inverted pyramid offers greater potential reward at the cost of much greater risk, as compared to the standard, scaled-down pyramid.

The reflecting pyramid systematically adds to a position up to a predetermined price level, then it reduces the position systematically as the trend continues, so the reflecting pyramid is not a pure trend following method. If the price does have a major move in the indicated trend direction, the reflecting pyramid would result in less profit than both the standard and inverted pyramids.

The maximum-leverage pyramid keeps on adding maximum size up to the limits of accumulated profits and margin requirements. This is the most aggressive strategy possible, and it offers the maximum potential reward, the maximum potential risk, and the worst reward/risk ratios. This pyramid must be combined with tight exit rules, or else it is a formula for near-certain ruin.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源:http://www.actionforex.com/articles-library/money-management-articles/pyramiding:-a-risky-strategy-200603035356/
 

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