伊拉克拒绝减产 油价再度下跌

亚洲交易时间周一早间，油价再度下滑，原因是伊拉克拒绝加入OPEC的石油冻产计划。

在纽约商品交易所，十二月交割的轻质低硫原油期货价格为每桶50.55美元，下跌0.6%。在伦敦洲际交易所，十二月交割的布伦特原油成交价为51.54美元，下跌0.5%。

伊拉克石油官员在周末表示，不会缩减石油产量。他们当前的产量为每天477万桶。伊拉克是OPEC第二大石油制造商，仅次于沙特阿拉伯。如果伊拉克拒绝加入，那么石油冻产计划会更难成功。

SCI International能源分析家高健表示：“伊拉克的拒绝可能会引发多米诺效应，致使其他制造商退出冻产计划。”

澳新银行研究中心指出：“伊拉克的态度可能会带来持续的油价压力。”如果OPEC的内部矛盾越来越多，俄罗斯的态度也会受其影响。俄罗斯最大的石油制造商Rosneft经常说，如有需要，他们有能力扩大生产，但若政府坚持减产，他们也会依令而行。

OPEC成员计划在11月30日召开会议，讨论配额问题，从而将集团总产量控制在每天3300万桶以下。但很多市场观察认为协议会失败，因为成员们往往不会依照配额生产。

石油价格也正处于压力之下，因为美国的活跃石油钻井数量仍在不断增长之中。美国油田服务公司贝克休斯的数据显示，上周的石油钻井数量增加11个，达到了443个。

美国的石油钻井数量可以视为石油版块活跃度的标志。钻井数量在2014年10月达到1609的最高点，此后低迷的油价促使石油产量和钻井数量急剧减少。摩根士丹利表示，石油钻井数量在今年夏初开始回升，并有进一步增加的趋势。

摩根士丹利指出：“石油钻井数量的变化会比油价滞后三到四个月，我们认为钻井数量会继续增加，尤其是在年底。”

投资者们本周都在期待中国的九月原油最终数据，该数据已经推迟了一周。据分析，中国的汽油和柴油出口量将会出现大幅增长，原油进口量也会稳步增加。

在纽约商品交易所，十一月交割的新配方汽油合约价格为每加仑1.5214美元，下跌了100个点。十一月交割的柴油价格为1.5697美元，下跌了43个点。

在洲际交易所，十一月交割的汽油价格为每吨463.25美元，较周五下跌了1.25美元。

Oil prices fall after Iraq says it won’t scale back output

 Oil prices slipped in early Asian trade Monday on signs that the production cut plan proposed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries could face more headwinds after Iraq signalled it wants to be excluded from the pact.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in December CLZ6, -0.53%  traded at $50.55 a barrel, down $0.30, or 0.6%, in the Globex electronic session. December Brent crude LCOZ6, -0.39%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.24, or 0.5%, to $51.54 a barrel.

Iraqi oil officials over the weekend were reported to have said they would not scale back output which currently stands at 4.77 million barrels a day. Iraq is the second largest OPEC producer after Saudi Arabia and a collective production cut would be harder to achieve without it on board, said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at SCI International.

“There is a risk that Iraq’s refusal could trigger a domino effect that other producers would ask to be exempt from the cuts too,” he added.

ANZ Research said Iraq’s comments will likely keep oil prices under pressure for the session. Analysts say rising discords within OPEC could potentially fluster Russia’s participation in the cut. Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft recently said it has the capacity to expand production if necessary, and would only curb if the government instructs it to do so.

OPEC members are scheduled to meet on November 30 to discuss individual production quotas, in order to limit the group’s production under 33 million barrels a day. However, many market observers are bracing for the deal to flop given the members’ track record of not complying to the quotas.

Oil prices are also under pressure as the number of active oil rigs in the U.S. continue to climb. Last week, the oil-rig count rose by 11 to 443, according to oil-field services company Baker Hughes.

The U.S. oil-rig count is typically viewed as a proxy for activity in the sector. After peaking at 1,609 in October 2014, low oil prices put downward pressure on production and the rig count fell sharply. The oil-rig count has generally been rising since the beginning of the summer and the uptrend is likely to continue, Morgan Stanley said in a note.

“Rig count typically lags prices by three to four months, so we would expect to see more rigs added, especially near year-end,” the bank said.

Investors this week will be watching for China’s final September oil data which was postponed last week. The data is expected to show a surge in China’s gasoline and diesel exports as well as a steady rise in the country’s imports of crude.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for November RBX6, -0.29%  — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 100 points to $1.5214 a gallon, while November diesel traded at $1.5697, 43 points lower.

ICE gasoil for November changed hands at $463.25 a metric ton, down $1.25 from Friday’s settlement.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-fall-after-iraq-says-it-wont-s