美联储暂时维持利率不变

美联储领导人用“点阵图”预测出，在未来几年利率增加的幅度将越来越小，这意味着他们降低了对美国经济的预期。

点阵图显示，2016年只有一次加息，2017年有两次加息，而不是三次。

联邦基金利率是美国经济的润滑剂，美联储将这一短期利率的长期目标从3%降至2.9%。美联储计划在2020年之前都不会超过这一水平。加息的步伐越稳，就越能说明美联储委员认识到了经济不会再向二战后期那样迅速地增长了。

自大萧条结束以来，美国经济的年增长率始终低于2%，远低于历史平均水平3.3%。经济增长上一次超过3%是在2005年，美国经济连续十年增长缓慢，这是二战结束后最久的一次。

这种走势可能会一直延续下去。今年上半年经济表现疲软，美联储便将2016美国国内生产总值(GDP)的预期降至1.8%。美联储在年初的预期为2.4%，上一次过度乐观的预测是在2009年中期经济刚刚复苏之时。

美联储有效基金利率突破2.9%是在20世纪五十年代至六十年代。利率水平如此之低足以说明未来经济的增长能力不甚乐观。

最新的点阵图将美联储政策制定者之间的巨大分歧显露无遗。夏初之时，每一位高级委员都认为年内至少会加息一次，大多数人认为会加息两次。

现在有三名美联储重要委员反对在年内加息，他们显然对耶伦主席有很大的影响力。

但另外四名美联储委员希望在年内加息两次，其中三人明确地提出了异议。波士顿联储、堪萨斯城联储及克利夫兰联储主席的主席都投出了反对票。委员们最终以7-3决定维持利率在当前水平不变。如此之多的反对票实属罕见。

耶伦的难处在于调节鸽派和鹰派之间的矛盾，防止出现进一步分裂。若分裂加剧，投资者们会感到困惑，这很有可能影响到经济复苏。但点阵图显示，美联储未来政策的分歧远高于2017年。

Fed stands pat on interest rates ‘for time being’

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — A “dot plot” used by Federal Reserve leaders to mark their forecasts for interest rates predict fewer increases in the next few years, underscoring diminished expectations for the U.S. economy.

The dot plot points to only one increase in rates in 2016 and just two in 2017 instead of three.

The Fed also trimmed its long-term target for fed funds, a short-term rate that acts as a lubricant for the U.S. economy, to 2.9% from 3%. The central bank doesn’t even expect to reach that level until 2020 at the earliest. Read FOMC statement

The more gradual pace of rate hikes reflects growing recognition on the part of Fed officials that the economy is unlikely to grow as quickly as it has through most of the period following World War Two.

The U.S. had expanded at just under 2% a year since the end of the Great Recession, well below the nation’s historic 3.3% average. The last time the economy grew 3% was in 2005, a 10-year barren stretch that is the longest since the end of World War II.

The dubious streak is about to get extended. After a weak first half of the year, the Fed also cut its estimate for U.S. gross domestic product in 2016 to 1.8%. When the year began, the central bank had estimate 2.4% growth in yet another overoptimistic prediction that has characterized the Fed’s forecasts since a recovery began in mid-2009.

The last time the effective fed funds rate consistently topped out around 2.9% was in the late 1950s and early 1960s. Such a low ceiling now illustrates more pessimism about the economy’s future ability to grow.

The latest dot plot also starkly reveals a sharp rift among Fed policymakers. As the summer got underway, every senior Fed official expected at least one rate increase in 2016 and a majority forecast two.

Now three Fed VIPs oppose any rate hike this year and they clearly held enough sway with Chairwoman Janet Yellen to ensure that the central bank stood pat.

Yet four other Fed members want two rate increases this year, three of whom felt strongly enough to dissent. The presidents of the Boston, Kansas City and Cleveland Federal Reserve all voted no in a 7-3 result. So many dissents at one meeting are rare historically.

The challenge for Yellen is to reconcile the doves and the hawks and prevent the split from getting worse, a outcome that could confuse investors and possibly harm the recovery. Yet the dot plot shows big divergences for future Fed policy well beyond 2017.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-holds-off-interest-rate-hike-but-only-for-the-time-being-2016-09-21