美联储推迟加息的最大原因

促使美联储在周三维持利率不变的另一个原因是：新的货币市场法规将在下月生效，金融环境会进一步收紧。

伦敦银行间同业拆解利率(Libor)是用来计算银行之间相互借贷美元的成本。它也是世界各地私营部门数以亿计的美元债务的参考基准利率，其中包括企业贷款和房贷。该利率自去年开始持续上涨，近来甚至突破了2008年至2009年金融危机时期的最高水平。

上涨主要归功于将在十月中旬上线的证券和交易委员会货币市场新规。

德意志银行首席国际经济学家Torsten Slok在周一的评论中指出，紧缩的金融环境到达了与加息相同的结果。

Slok 写道：“我认为Libor利率上涨会促使美联储推迟加息。他们会观察在10月14日货币市场新规发布后，短期Libor利率是会维持在当前水平还是会出现回落。”

上升的Libor和短期融资成本通常被视为银行间市场的压力信号。上涨的Libor也会反映出官方利率上升的预期。

但近来的大部分移动都归因于新的货币市场规定，该规定要求商业票据、定期存款等私营部门债务投资允许价格浮动。目前为止，大多数基金将股价定为1美元。SEC认为透明度的增长会促使投资者调整持有数量，从而应对不断变化的资本价值，这样就不会出现价值不足1美元时投资者蜂拥退出的情况了。

而随着规定的变更，很多投资者会退出所谓的主要货币基金，涌向新规豁免的基金，因为他们只投资政府证券。这意味着商业票据和定期存款的购买量会随着Libor的增长而减少。

美联储的政策制定者希望在周三的两日会议中保持利率稳定，少数央行观察人士认为,这将是千钧一发的时刻。周一收盘时股市波动不大，标普500指数基本持平。

Slok并不孤单。

“如果美元变得强势，Libor和美国债券收益皆有增加，面对紧缩的金融环境，美联储何必要加息呢。”墨尔本IG集团首席市场策略师Chris Weston在周一的评论中写道。

确实，近几周来某些投资者认为增加的货币市场利率会给美联储鸽派官员带来极大的助力。

Here’s one big reason the Fed can wait to raise rates

Here’s another reason why the Federal Reserve can leave rates unchanged Wednesday: Financial conditions are significantly tighter thanks to new money-market regulations that go into effect next month.

Libor—the London interbank offered rate, a measure of the cost for banks to borrow from each other in dollars that also serves as a benchmark reference rate for trillions of dollars in private-sector debt around the world, including corporate loans and mortgages—has been on the rise since late last year, recently hitting levels not seen since the 2008-09 financial crisis.

Much of the increase has been attributed to anticipation of new Securities and Exchange Commission money-market rules that will take effect mid-October.

The upshot is that the resulting tightening of financial conditions is doing the same job that a Fed rate increase would accomplish, argues Deutsche Bank’s chief international economist, Torsten Slok, in a Monday note.

“I think that the move up in Libor rates is an important argument for the Fed to stay on hold this week and then wait and see if short Libor rates remain at these levels after the new money-market funds rules go into effect on Oct. 14, or if they begin to come down,” Slok wrote.

Elevated Libor and related short-term funding costs are often viewed as a sign of stress in the interbank market (such rates were watched with alarm in the midst of the financial crisis as credit markets froze and the global banking system teetered on collapse). Rising Libor can also reflect expectations for rising official interest rates.

But the bulk of the move this time around has been attributed to the new money-market rules, which will require funds that invest in private-sector debt, such as commercial paper or certificates of deposit, to let their share prices float. Until now, most funds fixed share prices at $1. The SEC contends increased transparency will let investors adjust holdings in response to changing asset values rather than stampeding for the exits when they realize their shares are worth less than $1. While only one fund “broke the buck” following the 2008 collapse of Lehman, the ensuing panic sucked liquidity out of the money market and amplified the crisis, market watchers said.

As a result of the rule change many investors have exited these so-called prime money funds to pile into funds that are exempt from the new rules because they invest solely in government securities, as the above chart from Slok shows. That means fewer buyers of commercial paper and certificates of deposit, which is reflected in rising Libor:

Fed policy makers are expected to keep rates steady when they conclude a two-day policy meeting Wednesday, though a minority of central-bank watchers argue that it will be a close call. Stocks ended little changed on Monday, with the S&P 500SPX, +0.00%  virtually flat on the day.

Slok isn’t alone.

“If one is to add [U.S. dollar] strength to a rise in Libor and U.S. Treasury yields and you have a tightening of financial conditions that makes one question why the Fed needs to hike anyhow,” wrote Chris Weston, Melbourne-based chief market strategist at IG, in a Monday note to clients.

Indeed, some investors have been making the case for weeks that rising money-market rates would give Fed doves a solid reason to stand their ground, as MarketWatch noted in late August.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-one-big-reason-the-fed-can-wait-to-raise-rates-2016-09-19