2016年表现最差的货币

英国突然决定退出欧盟使英镑在2016年的外汇市场中剧烈下跌。事实上，英镑在2016年1月到6月中旬的下跌的幅度高于任何其他主要货币，并在期间跌到30年最低点。但是英镑不是唯一下跌的货币，而且有比其更严重的货币。像阿根廷比索、尼日利亚奈拉、埃及镑和委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔等主要货币都对英镑出现大幅度贬值。

虽然高度的不确定性和有争议的货币政策抑制了英国、埃及和阿根廷的货币，但是委内瑞拉的问题来自不同的原因。尼日利亚的情况特殊，原因是6月20日开始浮动汇率之前有几个月的固定汇率，使其很难与其他货币进行横向比较。

委内瑞拉玻利瓦尔

委内瑞拉的在2016年上半年的处境非常艰难，而且2016年下半年的前景也不尽人意。大量的委内瑞拉人正在与粮食短缺、停电和日益增长的军事分裂做斗争。获得准确的委内瑞拉经济信息是非常困难的，但是有充分的理由怀疑政府给出的62.2%的通胀率是否真实。

国际货币基金组织在4月发布的预测估计委内瑞拉2016年的通胀率为481%。到7月，这一数字增长到700%。由于当前政府政策和预计的经济下跌，2017年的通胀预期为惊人的1642%。

情况很快就变成了一个典型的恶性通货膨胀循环模式。2013年，委内瑞拉的通胀率约为41%。这一数字在2014年增长到63%，而到2015年则达到了275%。换个角度来说，2012年1美元约可以兑换4内瑞拉玻利瓦尔。而这一汇率在2015年末达到了1美元兑换900内瑞拉玻利瓦尔。如果国际货币基金组织的预测是准确的，2017年末1美元可以兑换90000到100000玻利瓦尔。

尼日利亚奈拉

2016年表现最差的货币是奈拉。到7月，奈拉在官方市场价值下跌约29.5%，交易价格约为360奈拉对兑1美元和470 奈拉兑1英镑。所有的这些下跌都出现在6月中旬开始自由浮动之后的6周。当货币从固定汇率变成浮动汇率时价格出现剧烈波动是很正常的，但是尼日利亚的历史和巨大的通胀率都使人担忧。

埃及镑

埃及中央银行在2016对埃及镑实施战略性贬值，试图遏制在埃及黑市的巨额非法交易。与奈拉和英镑不同，虽然有预测表示埃及央行可能采用更加灵活的汇率机制以应对困难的经济形势，埃及镑现在还在执行固定汇率体制。

2016年初埃及镑兑美元的固定汇率为7.73 EGP/USD，远远高于黑市的9.5-11 EGP/USD。埃及央行的决定会帮助缓解这一不平衡状况，但是一些人担心增加的货币将会加剧埃及已经令人不安的通胀率。

阿根廷比索和英镑

很难弄清阿根廷比索和英镑在2016年前七个月中表现谁更糟糕。二者分别兑美元下跌11%和13%，而且出于不同的原因这两个国家都曾登上过金融新闻的头条，阿根廷的原因是政治腐败，英国的原因是内斗和退欧带来的不确定性。

比索的情况可能比英镑还要糟糕，因为其未来前景更少。英国退欧在最初引起了金融市场的震动，但是商业环境已经开始反弹，而且距离英国正式和欧盟脱离关系还有两年的缓冲。

阿根廷的经济更加脆弱并且其政治前景更加不确定。此外，阿根廷的通胀率被预计在年底前将超过35%。阿根廷的情况还没有像委内瑞拉那么严重，但是这个国家的经济已经到了崩溃的边缘。阿根廷不想重复其货币失败的历史。

The Worst-Performing Currencies of 2016

By Sean Ross | August 25, 2016 — 3:00 PM EDT

The United Kingdom's surprising decision to leave the European Union, known as the "Brexit," sent the British pound sterling (GBP) tumbling in foreign exchange (forex) currency markets in 2016. In fact, the pound lost more value than any of the world's major currencies from January to mid-July, and plunged to 30-year lows in the process. It isn't the only currency that struggled, however, and some have been far worse. Minor currencies such as the Argentine peso (ARS), Nigerian naira (NGN), Egyptian pound (EGP) and Venezuelan bolivar (VEF) have each fallen significantly against the U.S. dollar (USD).

While heightened uncertainty or questionable monetary policy helps suppress currency used in the United Kingdom, Egypt and Argentina, the calamity in Venezuela is of a different magnitude altogether. The Nigerian situation is unique because the naira was pegged to the U.S. dollar for several months before being allowed to float on June 20, 2016, making it difficult to conduct an apples-to-apples comparison.

Venezuelan Bolivar

Venezuela had a very difficult first half of 2016, and prospects are poor for the second half. Masses of Venezuelans struggle with food shortages, power outages and an increasingly militaristic government desperate to maintain control. It is difficult to get accurate economic information from Venezuela, but there is serious reason to doubt the validity of government statistics that show a 62.2% annual inflation rate.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released projections in April that the estimated annual inflation in Venezuela during 2016 would be 481%. By July, those estimates rose to 700%. Based on current government policy and expected economic declines, the 2017 inflation projection is a dizzying 1,642%.

The situation is quickly resembling a classic hyperinflation pattern. In 2013, Venezuelan inflation was estimated at 41%. This rose to 63% by 2014 and 275% in 2015. To put this into perspective, an American could exchange one U.S. dollar for approximately four Venezuelan bolivars in 2012. The exchange ratio climbed to $1 for 900 bolivars by the end of 2015. If the IMF's projections are accurate, $1 could purchase between 90,000 and 100,000 bolivars by the end of 2017.

Nigerian Naira

The worst-performing currency in 2016 is the naira. By July, the NGN lost approximately 29.5% value on the official market, trading at more than 360 NGN/USD and more than 470 NGN/GBP. All of those losses occurred within a six-week window after the naira began free-floating in mid-June. Sharp swings in relative currency prices are customary when switching from a fixed-rate to a free-floating-rate regime, but Nigeria has a history of dramatic and worrying inflation.

Egyptian Pound

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) strategically devalued the Egyptian pound in 2016, in an attempt to drive out illegal transactions in Egypt's huge black market. Unlike the naira or pound sterling, the Egyptian pound still operates on a fixed exchange-rate system, though there are expectations that the CBE might adopt a more flexible exchange rate regime in response to tough economic conditions.

The Egyptian pound started out 2016 at a fixed rate of 7.73 EGP/USD, well above the going black market rate of roughly 9.5 to 11 EGP/USD. The CBE's decision to devalue the pound should help alleviate this imbalance, but some worry that the extra currency will exacerbate Egypt's already troubling inflation rate.

Argentine Peso and British Pound

It is tough to figure out whether the Argentine peso or the British pound had a worse first seven months of 2016. Each fell between 11 and 13% against the U.S. dollar, and each country has been in the financial headlines for the wrong reasons: Argentina for political corruption, and the United Kingdom for internal strife and the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit.

The peso is probably in worse shape than the British pound, because of fewer future prospects. Brexit dominated headlines and initially shook financial markets, but business conditions are already on the rebound, and it will still be two years before the country officially breaks ties with the European Union.

Argentina has a much more fragile economy and a more uncertain political future. Moreover, the Argentine inflation rate is expected to be greater than 35% before year's end. Conditions in Argentina aren't nearly as bad yet as in Venezuela, but this is an economy on the edge. Argentina does not want to repeat its history of failed currencies.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stock-analysis/082516/worstperforming-currencies-2016.asp