八月的市场平静无波，但并不意味着大股指已经平稳地结束了，或许独立版块的行动还没有开始。
标普500指数本月仅仅下跌了0.1%，使得能源金融股票的趋势变得模糊不清，公共事业等防御性板块的疲软也被弥补了。
即便如此，交易员们似乎也在纷纷“离开”。分析家们指出：“近来的市场表现远不及五月，快离开吧。”从以往的历史经验来看，夏季表现不佳似乎是颠之不破的真理。
芝加哥蒙特利尔私人银行首席投资官Jack Ablin说：“截至八月底，我们公司股票上涨了5%，我们今年的收益主要从五月开始的。当前的市场仍然十分平静，大选即将到来，问题在于美联储。投资者们认为，如果继续等待，很多问题便会渐渐明朗。”
以往他们便是这样做的。不仅指数、版块及资产类别的交易量偏低，季节性问题也要考虑在内，但是投资者们所见的移动确实很小。高盛集团指出，7月8日以来，标普500指数在一天之内的波动幅度不及1%，这是2014年夏天以来时间最久的一次。而CBOE波动指数在八月上涨了13%，将“恐慌指数”推至13.4，但仍然低于20这一长期平均水平，这是六月以来未曾出现的情况。
虽然历年八月的交易量都不太高，但是今年八月是在是太安静了，专业交易员们都大为吃惊。SPDR S&P 500 ETF八月的交易量约为17.3亿股，远低于2015年同期的26亿。ETF的交易量较去年八月减少了一半不止，但是去年八月人民币贬值，引发了市场动乱，很难直接和今年的情况进行比较。
美国全球投资者有限公司的操盘手主管Michael Matousek说：“我做这一行有20多年了，状况似乎一年不如一年。”八月的交易量少，因而被称为“最不适合交易的月份”。“在我做职业交易员的时候，我总会把假期安排在八月，因为这时候交易量低，开仓平仓不易，很容易亏损。”
也许八月最大的事件就是美联储在杰克逊霍尔召开的年度例会，美联储主席耶伦表示，她看到了美国经济增长的迹象，这会提高加息的可能性。投资者便将其视为九月加息的信号。
对加息的期待会促进金融股的增长（通过提高净息差），也会损害到公共事业股（更倾向于分红的低利率环境）。在八月中，美国金融指数ETF在所有的标普500版块ETF中表现最为强势，上涨了3.9%，而公共事业股票则表现最差，下跌了5.5%。
在其他版块，黄金期货在八月底创下两月新低。
SPDR黄金信托基金在八月下跌了3%，流出额约为9710万美元。自年初至今，该基金是所有ETF中表现最好的，投资者投入了110亿美元的资金。而iShares白银信托基金则下跌了8.1%。
Here are August’s biggest movers on the Dow, S&P 500
It’s no secret that markets were quiet in August, but don’t think that just because broader indexes ended relatively flat that individual sectors didn’t see their share of action.
The slight downward bias of the S&P 500 SPX, -0.24% which fell 0.1% for the month, obscures the strength that was seen in energy and financial stocks, as well as the offsetting weakness in more defensive areas of the market like the utility sector.
Even though traders seemed to “go away,” in August, analysts noted that recent market action didn’t qualify as a “sell in May, go away” situation, referring to a popular market axiom about historical underperformance in the summer.
“Since the end of April we’re up 5%—most of the entire return we’ve enjoyed this year has been since the beginning of May,” said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank in Chicago. “But it’s still very quiet out there. Markets are fully priced, we’ve got an election coming up, questions about the Fed—there are a number of issues that investors think they’ll get more clarity on if they just wait.”
Wait they did—historically so. Not only were trading volumes low across indexes, sectors and asset classes, even when seasonality is taken into account, but the moves investors did see were slight. The S&P 500 hasn’t closed with a daily move of more than 1% (either positive or negative) since July 8, the longest such period since the summer of 2014, according to Goldman Sachs. And while the CBOE Volatility index VIX, +2.29% rose 13% over August, bringing the “fear index” to 13.4, it remains well below its long-term average of 20, a level it hasn’t seen since June.
Even though volumes in August are traditionally thin, professional traders expressed surprise over how quiet it was this year. Roughly 1.73 billion shares traded on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY, -0.28% over the course of the month, significantly under the average monthly volume of 2.6 billion seen over the course of 2015. Trading on the ETF was also more than 50% below its volume last August, although direct comparisons are difficult as concerns over China in August 2015—including the country’s unexpected devaluation of its currency—led to turmoil with no equivalent this year.
“I’ve been doing this for 20 years, and every year it feels like it gets slower,” said Michael Matousek, head trader at U.S. Global Investors Inc. in San Antonio, who called August “one of the worst months to trade in” because of the low volume. “When I was a prop trader I would take the majority of days off in August because the low volume makes it harder to get in and out of your positions and I’d lose more money than I’d make.”
Perhaps the biggest story of the month came after the Federal Reserve’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, where Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said she was seeing signs of improvement in the U.S. economy and a strengthening case for a rate rise. Investors took the statement as a sign that a rate increase was in the cares in coming months, a view reinforced by subsequent comments from Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer.
Hopes for higher rates both boosted financial shares—which stand to benefit from rising net interest margins—and hurt utility stocks, which have been favored in the low-rate environment for to their dividends. The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETFXLF, +0.08% had the strongest performance of any S&P 500 sector ETF this month, with a gain of 3.9%, while the utility equivalent XLU, +0.41% had the weakest, down 5.5%.
Among other asset classes, gold futures GCZ6, +0.08% ended August at two-month lows, recording their first monthly loss since May.
The SPDR Gold Trust ETF GLD, -0.20% fell 3% in August and saw outflows of $97.1 million. However, the fund has seen some of the strongest inflows of any ETF year-to-date, with investors pouring more than $11 billion into it. The iShares Silver Trust ETF SLV, +0.28% fell 8.1% in August.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
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