炎炎夏日即将结束，下半年的经济即将开始迅速增长，这为美联储加息铺平了道路。
就业率在停滞了一个春天之后重新开始加速。消费支出稳定，没有放缓的迹象。房地产呈现出近几年来最好的形势。而挣扎求存的制造业板块也逐渐趋于稳定
本周涌现了大量的报告来描绘这一景象。新房和现房的销量突破了衰退后时期的峰值，虽然学校即将开学，销售旺季即将结束，但销量仍会保持强势。七月的长期商品和耐用品的订单也在连续两个月下跌后开始反弹。
并非所有的消息都是好消息。商业投资作为美国经济的三大拦路虎之一，自2015年起开始疲软，七月的表现可能依旧如此。
瑞士联合银行分析家在一篇报告中指出：“核心耐用品订单在近几年一直处于低迷状态，没有任何恢复的迹象。”
为了应对低迷的经济环境，美联储主席耶伦可能在周五发布“即将”加息的信号。怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔是全球央行年会的举办地，耶伦将成为这个度假胜地的绝对焦点。
至于这次投资者们会不会相信美联储，就很难说了。自2013年至今，美联储多次接近加息的边缘却最终反悔，最近一次便是在今年春天。
蒙特利尔资本银行高级经济学家Sal Guatieri指出：“现如今，投资者们都已了解联邦公开市场委员会的鸽派原则。”
美联储最担心的不是美国经济，而是全球经济。
中国仍在扩张，但近几年的经济增长速度明显放缓。欧洲状况略有好转，但仍表现平平，英国退欧的阴云仍未散去。日本经济再度陷入停滞。
全球业务咨询公司德勤的首席财务官Frank Friedman指出：“日本经济增长停滞已经持续了一段时间了。”
如果美联储加息，很可能会引领美元继续走高，并吸引更多的外国货币。强势的美元会抑制美国出口和商业投资并伤害其他经济体。
考虑到这些问题，美联储在七月的会议上表示，将评估加息对美元及全世界的影响。
此外，美联储的主要职责是确保美国的通胀数据不被公开。虽然价格压力仍然很低，但若美联储继续推迟加息，紧缩的劳动力市场会抬高工资成本，迫使美联储加速提高利率。
这是大萧条时期使用的方法，美联储不想再犯这样的错误了。
U.S. economy providing ammo for higher interest rates
As the dog days of summer draw to a close, the economy appears primed for somewhat faster growth in the second half of the year that’s likely to pave the way for higher U.S. interest rates.
Hiring has accelerated after a spring pause, consumer spending is steady and shows no sign of slowing, the housing market is the best it’s been in years and even the struggling manufacturing sector appears to have stabilized.
A raft of new reports this week is likely to underscore a picture. Sales of new and existing homes recently hit fresh post-recession peaks, and although the main buying season is coming to an end as school starts, sales are expected to remain strong if a toucher lower in July. Orders for long-lasting or durable goods probably also rebounded in July after two straight declines.
Not all the news is cheery. Business investment, one of three key pegs holding up the U.S. economy, has been weak since 2015. It’s likely to be soft in July as well.
Core durable orders “have been dismal for the past year and we have not observed any signals that suggest a pickup is in sight,” UBS analysts wrote in a report.
Against that backdrop, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Friday is expected to signal that an increase in interest rates is coming — soon. She is the headline attraction in the resort town of Jackson Hole, Wy., the site of an annual central bank retreat.
Also read: Yellen to say ‘ready’ for another rate hike
Whether investors believe the Fed this time, however, is far from certain. The Fed has gone to the brink of rate hikes several times since 2013 — most recently in the spring — only to pull back.
“By now investors know the doves rule the FOMC henhouse,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
The Fed’s biggest worry is not the U.S. economy, but the global one.
China is still expanding but at the slowest pace in years. Europe has shown improvement but it’s still a lackluster performer, and U.K. Brexit vote continues to hang over the region like a dark cloud. Japan has stalled again.
“Japan has been in a long period of no growth,” noted Frank Friedman, chief financial officer of the global business consultant Deloitte LLP.
If the Fed raises rates, there’s a good chance it could increase the value of an already strong DXY, +0.34% and draw more foreign money toward the U.S. at a time when many other countries hunger for investment. A strong dollar could continue to depress Americans exports and business investment and hurt other economies.
Mindful of those worries, the Fed at its July meeting said it would evaluate the impact of a rate hike on the dollar and thus the rest of the world.
Still, the Fed’s main job is to make sure that U.S. inflation stays under wraps. While price pressures remain low, a tightening labor market could drive up the cost of wages and force the central bank to raise interest rates faster than it would like if it continues to put them off.
That’s been a recipe for recessions in the past — a mistake the Fed does not want to repeat.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
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