基本面分析

什么是基本面分析？

基本面分析试图根据某一只股票的预期未来现金流分析出该股票的现值。

现值

现值是指对未来所有现金流量以恰当的折现率进行折现后的价值。现金流入量通过贴现率将其未来的价值转换为现有等值价值。

贴现率

贴现率包括两个组成部分：
• 一个毫无风险的利率（通常指国债利率）
• 补贴给投资者的、针对未来预期现金流的风险溢价

预期未来现金流

预期未来现金流是投资者或分析师根据企业的现状以及发展前景做出的推断。

不确定性

对价值的详细评估过程中常见的错误是忽略了评估要素的不确定性：
• 当前的财务结构有可能改善或恶化；
• 企业的运作环境可能面临较大改变：
o 新的法律法规或新的关税、税收政策；
o 竞争对手引入新的产品；
o 新技术或替代品；
o 新的销售渠道；
o 原材料过剩或短缺；
o 劳动力市场变化；
o 消费者爱好的改变；
o 融资成本上升或下降；
o 战争、瘟疫或自然灾害影像购买力。
• 新的风险投资可能盈利或大规模亏本；
• 不断的诉讼风险——集体诉讼、版权或专利侵权、垄断等等；
• 经营手段有可能出乎意料的成功也可能沮丧的失败。
大多数情况下，分析师对企业前景的最准确预测也仅仅类似于在黑暗中射击。

基本面分析与技术分析

论坛上关于基本面分析与技术分析孰好孰劣一直以来都存在分歧，每一方都声称自己的方法更有效。他们似乎都忽略了所讨论的时间框架。短期和中期的价格波动容易受市场情绪驱动，而长期价格走势与股票的内在价值一致——该言论得到了市场上大部分长期趋势交易者的认同。
技术分析非常适合短期及中期投资，而基本面分析或基本面与技术相结合的分析（称为积极投资）更适合交易长期趋势。

估值模型

分析师倾向于过分强调自己的估值模型，因为它是一个可以达到高精密度的领域。但与正确假设相比，其重要性又显得微不足道。

Fundamental Analysis
What is Fundamental Analysis?
Fundamental analysis attempts to determine the present value of a stock based on its expected future cash flows.
Present Value
Present value is the aggregate of all future cash flows discounted to their current value. Cash flows are discounted by converting their future value to an equivalent current value using a discount rate.
Discount Rate
The discount rate includes two components:
• a risk-free rate of interest (usually the yield on treasury notes or bonds), and
• a premium to compensate investors for the increased risk associated with uncertain future cash flows.
Expected Future Cash Flows
Expected future cash flows are the investor's/analyst's assessment of future cash flows based on their assessment of the present position and future prospects of a company. See Value Investing for further details.
Uncertainty
The most common mistake is to prepare a detailed assessment of value without recognizing the uncertainty surrounding many of the assumptions on which your valuation is based:
• The current financial structure may improve or deteriorate;
• The operating environment may radically alter:
o new legislation or new tariffs or taxes;
o competitors introduce new products;
o new technologies or substitute products;
o new distribution channels;
o raw material surpluses or shortages;
o labor market changes;
o changes in consumer tastes;
o financing costs rise or fall; or
o wars, pestilence and natural disasters may affect the ability to trade.
• New ventures may succeed or fail spectacularly;
• Litigation is a continual risk - from class actions, copyright or patent infringements, and antitrust violations; and
• Management may succeed beyond expectations or fail dismally.
In many cases the analysts best estimate of a company's future prospects is no more than a shot in the dark.
Fundamental Analysis versus Technical Analysis
There is a long-standing debate on the forum between fundamental and technical analysts, each camp claiming that their method is better. What they seem to have lost sight of is that they are talking about different time frames. Short and medium-term price fluctuations tend to be driven by market sentiment rather than changes in the intrinsic value of a stock, while in the long-term price tends to converge with intrinsic value -- or at least the consensus view of intrinsic value among the major market players.
Technical analysis is ideally suited to short- or medium-term investing, while fundamental analysis, or a combination of technical and fundamental analysis (called active investing), is more suited to the long term.
Valuation Models
Analysts tend to place too much emphasis on their valuation model because it is the one area where they can achieve a fair degree of precision. The importance of the valuation model is comparatively insignificant when compared to the importance of making the correct assumptions.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/investing/fundamental_analysis.php