黄金和美元

黄金通常以每盎司多少美元计价，因此，美元的任何波动都有可能反映在黄金价格上：美元下跌，黄金价格则上升；美元升值，黄金价格下降。然而，二者的关系并不总是对立的，有些时候黄金和美元的价格会同时的上升或者下降。

背驰

下面的图表周期显示的是美元指数和黄金的价格关系。美指升高，黄金则下降，反之亦然。除了图中显示的A、B区域。A处黄金价格的上涨是美指价格即将下降的前兆。

B处美指的下降趋势随着黄金价格的升高而进一步确认，B处有可能刑成倒置的头肩顶形态或是上升的三角形，这取决于美指是否会突破92.5的阻力位。

美指反映了美元在主要货币对中的价值。其中比重最大的是欧元，占美指数据来源的57.6%.

如果金价跌破550美元每盎司的近期支撑位，那么美元指数就可能达到92.5。反之，如果金价上涨到近期730美元高点，则预示着美元指数示弱，并将下降至83.5的近期支撑位。

美联储掌握着主导权：美元利率的上涨会利好美元，并很有可能干扰其和黄金正常的背驰走势规律。

黄金并不是随意的被政府选择作为货币标准，很多世纪以前，黄金就已作为自由市场上稳定的货币媒介而存在。
~穆瑞•罗斯巴德

财政赤字后的财政支出，是政府隐匿的征用社会财富的一种手段。而黄金在这过程中起到了对财产权的保护作用。
〜格林斯潘

Gold and the Dollar
Gold is generally quoted in US dollars per ounce of gold; so any fluctuations in the strength of the dollar are likely to be reflected in the dollar price of gold: when the dollar falls the gold price rises........ and when the dollar rises gold falls. The relationship is not exactly inverse, however, and there are times when both gold and the dollar rise or fall simultaneously.
Divergences
For want of a better term we call these periods, when the normal inverse relationship breaks down, divergences. On the chart below the US Dollar Index rises when gold falls, and vice versa, except for divergences at [A] and [B].
The divergence at [A] occurs when a rising gold price gives advance warning of a decline in the dollar.
At [B] the index consolidates while gold continues to rise. The consolidation may be the start of an inverted head and shoulders or ascending triangle, but either pattern would only be confirmed if the index breaks through resistance at 92.5.
If gold falls below its recent support level of $550 per ounce, then the US Dollar Index is likely to reach 92.5. If not, and gold rises above its recent high of $730, expect the US Dollar Index to show weakness and fall through its recent support level of 83.5.
The Fed holds the only wild card: further interest rate rises would support the dollar and possibly interfere with the normal inverse relationship.
Gold was not selected arbitrarily by governments to be the monetary standard.
Gold had developed for many centuries on the free market as the best money;
as the commodity providing the most stable and desirable monetary medium.
~ Murray N. Rothbard

Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the 'hidden' confiscation of wealth.
Gold stands in the way of this insidious process.
It stands as a protector of property rights.
~ Alan Greenspan

文章翻译由兄弟财经提供，

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