美国经济的严重失衡

保罗•沃尔克，美联储前主席（1979 - 1987），2005年2月在斯坦福大学做了关于经济政策研究的演讲，强调了美国经济的严重失衡：
1、 个人储蓄几乎完全消失;
2、 消费者购买房屋的价格在不断提高;
3、 使用住房权益偿还个人不断增长的债务水平;
4、 唯一积极的是企业正在重新建设自己的资金储备;
5、 但这是远不能抵消美联储巨大的财政赤字。

实际上，美国正在超前消费和投资其产出的6％，长期来看，这是不可持续的。

如何实现国家的收支平衡？美国的财政赤字每天都会被多达20亿美元的海外资产所填充，美元作为全球性货币被投资者认为是资金安全的避风港。近期一些经济体，尤其是中国和日本的央行，出现了一个令人不安的转变——取代私人资本。美国市场的活跃符合它们的利益，因为它们的出口都或多或少的依赖于美国。问题是，正如沃尔克所指出的，美国不愿意解决这些问题：“最后能做的只是叹息——唉，为时已晚。”

那么美国将如何解决这个问题？
1、 说服中国和别的亚洲主要经济体允许其货币对美元大幅升值；
2、 鼓励日本和欧洲国家解决国内需求增长的结构性障碍，以刺激国内需求的增长；
3、 采取强硬措施提高个人储蓄率，从而减少对进口的需求。

美联储前任主席呼吁大家树立起资金和财政的强烈意识。如果美国不在恰当时机解决经济失衡问题，那么，政府只能在金融危机之时被迫处理这个问题。公众对于美国资本市场发展的信心早晚会衰退、海外的投资者或央行也会厌倦于不断满足美元的欲望。不论哪种情况的发生，美国经济必然崩溃，并将没有能力处理突发事件。

Cause for Concern: Serious imbalances in the US economy
Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve (1979 - 1987), in his February 2005 address to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, highlighted serious imbalances in the US economy:
• personal savings have almost completely disappeared;
• consumers are buying housing at ever increasing prices;
• and using equity in their homes to fund rising levels of personal debt;
• the only positive is that businesses are re-building their reserves;
• but this is more than offset by the huge federal deficit.
In effect, the nation is consuming and investing 6% more than it produces. This is unsustainable in the long term.
How does the country balance its books? The deficit is funded by a huge influx of capital from offshore investors; to the tune of $2billion per working day. The US is seen as a safe haven and the dollar is the closest there is to an international currency. Lately there has been a disturbing shift with central banks, especially China and Japan, replacing private capital. It is in the interest of these economies that the US market remain buoyant, as they are to some extent dependant on their exports to the US.
The problem, as Volcker points out, is that there is a lack of willingness to tackle these issues: "What can be left till later usually is -- and then alas, it's too late".
How can the problem be solved?
1. Persuade China and other major Asian economies to permit a substantial appreciation of their currencies against the dollar;
2. Encourage Japan and Europe to deal with structural obstacles to domestic growth and to stimulate their domestic markets; and
3. Introduce measures to forcibly increase the rate of personal savings, thereby reducing demand for imported goods.
The former Fed chairman called for a strong sense of monetary and fiscal discipline. If the imbalances are not tackled in good time the government will sooner or later be forced to face them during a financial crisis. Confidence in US capital markets may fade or offshore investors and central banks may decide that they have had their fill of the dollar. In either case the economy is ill-equipped to deal with unforeseen events.

文章翻译由兄弟财经提供，

本文来源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/economy/cause_for_concern.php