长期形态一、带柄杯子形态

1988年欧奈尔在《如何在市场中获利》一书首次对这一形态的分析。带柄杯子形态的形成需要长达数周。

带柄杯子形态在第一轮上升趋势之后，会继续形成第二轮的上升趋势。带柄杯子形态也是上升三角形态的一种。杯子形态的形成至少需要七周时间，一些甚至会达到一年。杯柄的形成时间为2周和几个月不等。

举例：

1998~1999年的两个头肩顶形态：
 
1. 杯子的起点从一个新高[1]处开始；
2. 在价格从[1]处的高度下降了50%左右，这就是杯子形态的高度，杯柄高度通常是该高度的10%~30%。
3. 随后第二处高峰在[3]处形成，比[1]处稍低。
4. 当杯柄高度突破[3]处高度就表示杯柄形态的完成。杯柄应该在杯子形态的上半部分。杯柄的确认是为以后的突破阻力做准备。
5. 随着带柄杯子形态的结束，[5]处出现了一个小的带柄杯子形态。[5]处的形态随着杯柄突破$4.00而完成。交易量在杯柄的短暂积聚之后，价格突破阻力大幅上升。.

需要避免的形态：
• 杯底呈“V”型。因为只有柔和的U型才能证明底部有效的支撑能力。
• 杯柄太深：杯柄的高度应该在杯子形态的上半部分。

交易信号

在杯柄的突破处做多，并在最近的地点处设置止损。

举例：
 
1. 带柄杯子形态的形成；
2. 杯子形态的结束和杯柄的开始形成；
3. 在[3]处突破[2]处的高点后做多；
4. 在杯柄的低点设置止损。

Cup and Handle
Cup and handle patterns were first identified by William J O'Neil in his book How To Make Money In Stocks. The cup and handle is a longer term continuation pattern, normally observed on weekly charts.
The cup and handle forms as an intermediate/secondary cycle correction before the primary cycle resumes its up-trend. The pattern is a form of (ascending) triangle.
The cup pattern should take a minimum of 7 weeks to form. There is no upper limit with some patterns taking as long as a year. The handle may form over one or two weeks but may also take several months.
EXAMPLE
Newcrest Mining Limited (Australia) exhibits 2 cup and handle patterns over 1998/1999.
6. The cup commences with a new peak [1], formed after a strong up-trend.
7. A secondary correction occurs, with price falling +/- 50% from the peak at [1]. This is high - cup and handle corrections normally vary between 10% and 30%.
8. The stock then forms a second peak at [3], slightly lower than the first.
9. The handle is completed [4] when price breaks above the intervening peak [3]. The handle should form in the top half of the cup pattern, with volume contracting as the trough forms and then expanding on the breakout.
10. A smaller cup and handle pattern follows with the cup completed at [5] and the handle completed by the subsequent breakout above $4.00. Again, observe how volume contracts as the handle forms and then rises sharply at the breakout.
Patterns to avoid:
• "Cups" with a sharp "V" bottom. The more "U" shaped the cup bottom is, the stronger the signal.
• Handles which are too deep. The handle should form in the top half of the cup pattern.
Volume Confirmation
Volume should contract as the handle forms and then expand on the breakout.
Trading Signals
Go long at the breakout from the handle pattern with a stop below the most recent low in the handle pattern.
EXAMPLE
United Energy Limited (Australia) shows a cup and handle pattern.
5. Start of the cup pattern.
6. The intervening peak completes the "cup" and starts the "handle".
7. Go long at the breakout [3] above the high of [2].
8. Place a stop-loss below the most recent low in the handle pattern.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

原文地址：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/cup_and_handle.php