图表形态

图表形态可以出现在各种各样的时间框架中。你可以在日线图的几个小时内或者长达几个月的时间框架中看到头肩顶形态。

图表形态由支撑阻力位和趋势线组成。我们主要关注图表形态的支撑和阻力位，因为它们有完整的理论基础。

批评者认为，图表形态是基于随机数据的，且在随机数据中表现显著。如果数据没有趋势性，那么图表形态存在的意义是什么？

1. 返回到最大的时间框架中：道琼斯工业平均指数始于1896年3月份，40的水平，而今天该指数位于10，000水平线之上——一个多世纪的稳定上升趋势。这数据显然不是随机的。

2. 你或许可以在随机数据中看到头肩顶形态，但是你不会看到阻力和支撑位。外汇市场的研究表明，市场中有限的订单不是杂乱分布的，而是集中在支撑和阻力位（整数价位）：请参照奥斯勒的《外汇订单和动态汇率：成功技术分析解析》

3. 美国普渡大学的厄尔•戴维斯教授对各种点数图形成的实验研究表明，点数图可以在牛市的时候实现70％和90％的盈利，在熊市时的盈利概率在80％和90％之间。托马斯•多西在1965年通过研究点数图得出：盈利订单的平均收益是非盈利订单平均损失的2~3倍。

图表形态出现在各种图表类型中：

•点数图在预测价格走势方面作用突出；

•等量成交线在成交量图中作用理想。

•同样的图表形态也可应用于动量指标、非趋势价格摆动指标（DPO）、MACD指标，并以类似的方式进行交易。

Chart Patterns

Chart patterns may occur in various time frames. You may find a head and shoulders pattern formed over several hours during a day, or over several months.
Patterns are formed by support and resistance levels and by trendlines. We concentrate on the patterns formed by support and resistance levels as these tend to have a sounder conceptual base.
A criticism of patterns is that they are also evident in random data, charts generated using random numbers. If the patterns appear in data where there is no trend then what is their significance?
1. Go back to the largest possible time frame: the Dow Industrial Average commenced in May 1896 at a level of 40, today the index stands at more than 10,000 - a steady up-trend for more than a century. The data is definitely not random.
2. You may observe head and shoulders and similar patterns in random data, but you will not observe support and resistance levels. Studies of foreign exchange markets have shown that limit orders are not scattered randomly in the market, but are clustered around support and resistance at round numbers: see Currency Orders and Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Explaining the Success of Technical Analysis by C Osler.
3. Empirical tests carried out on various point and figure chart formations, by Professor Earl Davis of Purdue University were profitable between 70 and 90 per cent of the time in bull markets and between 80 and 90 per cent in bear markets. Average gains (on profitable trades) were 2 to 3 times as large as average losses (on unprofitable trades). Thomas Dorsey describes the results of the 1965 study in Point & Figure Charting, including which formations had the highest success rates.
Chart patterns appear on all the various Chart Types:
• Point & Figure charts are especially useful in identifying price patterns; and
• Equivolume is ideal for identifying Volume Patterns;
• The same patterns are also be found on Momentum, Detrended Price Oscillator andMACD indicators and can be traded in a similar fashion.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/chart_patterns.php