技术分析

一、技术分析
1、什么是技术分析？
技术分析或“图表”是通过对金融市场价格和成交量的研究来预测他们未来表现。我特意用了“预期”，而不是“预告”或“预言”：市场随时可能向上或向下，不同的只是每一步的可能性。
技术分析—不是精密的科学 。技术分析不应该被用作预测，因为我们从来不会百分百的知道一个特定的形态或者一系列情况的最终结果。最多，我们只是能通过技术分析得到某一情况的80%可能性，这意味着总有20%意想不到的可能性总会发生。
我的方法是分析这些可能性的百分比，这意味着一定程度的精确性，而这种精确性通常是无法实现的。大多数情况下，我们可以得出至少有三分之二的可能性会向某一方向移动。这就足够让一个好的交易者在市场上脱颖而出。
2、技术分析的基础
技术分析基于以下三点理念：
• 价格反映市场的一切：所有重要的政治、经济信心都将反映在市场价格上。
• 价格波动有趋势性：一个多世纪前的查尔斯•道的“道理论”就是建立在对趋势的观察之上。
• 历史往往会重演：最基本的人性是不会变化的，而市场正是反映了所有参与者行为的总和并遵循可识别的走势。
3、技术分析真的有效吗？
一些学术研究宣称金融市场上的价格波动完全是随机的、没有可识别的形态。而另外一些研究表明买单和卖单不是随机分配的—它们通常集中在主要的价格线周围，即支撑和阻力位。技术分析也受到大量的中短线交易者的青睐---这说明技术分析具有实际应用价值
阻力和支撑是经典技术分析的基础：交易者在关键价位买卖的行为。趋势理论就是建立在价格在主要阻力和支撑位的表现之上。类似的，图表形态也是在阻力和支撑位上鉴别交易者行为。
4、技术指标
交易者需要在对基本概念有深入的了解之后，进而学习技术指标和更加复杂的图表形态。
在学习技术指标之前，你要确保自己拥有扎实的技术分析基础。技术指标的作用就是通过不同方式总结价格和成交量的关系来突出重要的部分。要记住的是，每当你做出总结的时候，你总会有所失。技术指标所能做的只是把最主要的数据关系通过更加可读的方式呈现出来，同时别的关系都将被忽略。
技术指标，使用得好就是有用和重要的工具，但它们不是“圣杯”。体现所有数据的总是价格和成交量表。
二、阻力和支撑
阻力和支撑是绝大多数图表的基础。
1、支撑
支撑位是买家想从卖家手中夺回市场的主导权的价格线
市场有“记忆力”。当价格创新低后便会回升，买家错过第一轮的低点后，如果再次达到该低点时，买家便有可能集结起来从卖家手中夺回控制权。结果就是价格上升并创造出市场关于支撑位的概念。
 
2、阻力
当价格达到新高并回调的时候，卖家会在价格再次达到该价位时进场。因害怕错过第二次机会，他们会以足够的卖方力量压倒买方。这时市价格不可能进一步上升并创造出阻力位的概念。
 .
点数图可以很好的帮您识别支撑和阻力位。
3、角色互换
价格一旦突破支撑位，通常情况下支撑就会变成阻力，反之亦然。
市场的逻辑很简单：在支撑位进场的买家，他们很有可能在价格反弹至盈亏平衡点平仓以挽回损失。这种情况下，支撑位就变成了阻力位。
 
同样，当价格遇到阻力位却没有反弹时，这会让很多提前平仓的交易者失望。如果价格重新回到支撑位，因为害怕错失机会，他们也很有可能向相反方向进场。阻力位因此就变成了支撑位。
4、支撑和阻力的识别
支撑和阻力线比别的价格线要重要得多，下面是辨别支撑和阻力位的重要方法：
• 该价位被认为是阻力和支撑位的次数
• 靠近该价位的成交量
• 该价位是新的还是旧的----通常新形成的支撑和阻力位会发挥更重要的作用
• 该价位是否是新高或新低---更极端的价格水平会有更大的影响
• 是否是整数价位

Technical Analysis
What is Technical Analysis?
Technical analysis or "charting" is the study of price and volume behavior in financial markets in order to anticipate their future performance. I have deliberately used the word "anticipate" rather than "forecast" or "predict":
The market can go up or down at any time -- it is only the probability (of each move) that varies.
Technical Analysis - Not An Exact Science

Technical Analysis should not be used to make predictions because we never know the outcome of a particular pattern or series of events with 100 per cent certainty. The best that we can hope to achieve is a probability of around 80 per cent for any particular outcome, which means that something unexpected will occur at least one in five times.

My approach is to assign probabilities to each possible outcome. Assigning actual percentages would imply a degree of precision which, is normally unachievable. Most of the time, however, we can tell that price is at least twice as likely to move in a certain direction, as it is to move in the other. That is sufficient edge for a good trader to out-perform the general market.

Foundations of Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is based on three basic beliefs:
• Price discounts everything.
All fundamental, political and economic information available to the market is reflected in the price.
• Price tends to move in trends.
Charles Dow developed the Dow Theory based on his empirical observation of trends more than a century ago.
• History tends to repeat itself.
Basic human nature does not change and the market, reflecting the sum of all participants actions, behaves in identifiable patterns.
Does Technical Analysis Really Work?
Some academic studies claim that price movements in financial markets are entirely random, with no recognizable pattern. Other studies have shown that buy and sell orders are not randomly distributed -- they tend to cluster around key price levels in the market -- the basic tenet of support and resistance.
Technical analysis further enjoys the support of large numbers of short- and medium-term traders -- evidence of its practical application.
Support and Resistance
The foundation of all classical technical analysis is support and resistance: the behavior of buyers and sellers at key price levels. Trend theory is based on the performance of price at key support and resistance levels. Chart patterns similarly identify the behavior of buyers in relation to support and resistance.
Learning About Technical Analysis
It is important to build a sound understanding of the basic concepts before progressing to indicators and more complex chart patterns.
Indicators
Ensure that you have a sound grasp of technical analysis before moving on to indicators.
All that indicators do is summarize price and volume behavior in different ways to highlight important features. Bear in mind that whenever you summarize you sacrifice. All that an indicator does is to present a particular feature of the data in a more readable format -- while eliminating all other features.
Indicators, in the right hands, are useful and important tools but they are not the holy grail. The big picture, presenting all the data, is always the price and volume chart.
Support and Resistance
Support and resistance form the foundation of most chart patterns.
Support
A support level is the price at which buyers are expected to enter the market in sufficient numbers to takecontrol from sellers.
The market has a memory. When price falls to a new Low and then rallies, buyers who missed out on the first trough will be inclined to buy if price returns to that level. Afraid of missing out for a second time, they may enter the market in sufficient numbers to take control from sellers. The result is a rally, reinforcing perceptions that price is unlikely to fall further and creating a support level.
 
Resistance
A resistance level is the price level at which sellers are expected to enter the market in sufficient numbers to take control from buyers.
When price makes a new High and then retreats, sellers who missed the previous peak will be inclined to sell when price returns to that level. Afraid of missing out a second time, they may enter the market in numbers sufficient to overwhelm buyers. The resulting correction will reinforce market perceptions that price is unlikely to move higher and establish a resistance level.
 
Point and figure charts are useful for identifying support and resistance levels.
Role Reversal
Support levels, once penetrated, frequently become resistance levels and vice versa.
The market logic is fairly simple: buyers who purchase near a support level, only to see price fall, are likely to sell in order to recover their losses, when price rallies to near their break-even point. The support level then becomes a resistance level.
 
Likewise, stockholders who sell when price approaches a resistance level will be disappointed if price penetrates the level and continues to rise. They will be inclined to buy if price returns to near the support level, fearing that they may miss out a second time. The resistance level thus becomes entrenched as a support level.
Strength of Support/Resistance
Some support and resistance levels are more important than others. The significance of the support level is identifiable by:
• the number of times that the level has been respected;
• the amount of volume that has been traded near the level;
• whether the level is old or new - recent levels have greater significance;
• whether the level is a new High or new Low - more extreme levels have greater impact; or
• a level formed at a round number (e.g. $20.00 or $100.00) leaves a lasting imprint.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来自：http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/technical_analysis.php
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/support_resistance.php