Sham Gad 2016年6月28日

虽然经济衰退使许多人认为大萧条即将来临，但是到目前为止还未出现类似在2008年经济大萧条中实行的货币和金融刺激政策。对大多数投资者来说，从未认真考虑把黄金当成一个长期投资。

黄金难题

在2008年和2009年经济衰退中，投资黄金成为许多投资者的主要想法。这一现象出现的主要原因是由于黄金价格的上涨。市场观察人士往往会对任何价格正在上涨的股票或者资产进行炒作。受到人们购买实物黄金和通过包括ETF和黄金开采企业股票等多种方式投资黄金的影响，黄金价格涨幅巨大。

2008年的经济大衰退对未来十年我们的经济系统有深远的影响。2016年英国公投决定退出欧盟也具有同样的效果，黄金价格随着未来英国经济的不确定性增加而上涨。

投资黄金的问题

在投资黄金之前，首先要了解为什么投资黄金存在基本问题。

黄金的主要问题是，与其他大宗商品不同，它不会被消耗殆尽。黄金一旦被开采出来之后，就能一直存在。一桶石油会被转化成其他产品消耗殆尽，谷物同样会被消耗掉。黄金则被制成首饰、用于艺术品、储存在金库中或者用于其他用途。不考虑最终目的，黄金的化学组成不会产生消耗。

因为这个原因，适用于石油、铜、谷物等其他大宗商品的供求参数不适用于黄金。

历史克服这一问题

然而，与其他大宗不同，黄金从一开始就是人类社会追逐的目标。无数王朝由于黄金被建造和毁灭。随着社会的发展，黄金成为一种普遍令人满意的付款方式。简而言之，历史给与了黄金与任何其他商品都不同的含义。

而且这种含义从未真正消失。直到20世纪70年代，美国的货币制度还建立在金本位之上。金本位支持者认为由于债务的产生与黄金的实际供应相关，这一制度能有效的控制债务的扩张并严格贷款标准。

从基本面角度看来，黄金通常被认为是通货膨胀良好的对冲。黄金的价值是作为一种储蓄手段对冲货币贬值。

黄金投资

投资黄金最简单的方式是通过股票市场，在股票市场你可以投资实物黄金或者黄金开采公司股票。投资实物黄金时不会获得投资黄金开采公司时能使用的杠杆。随着黄金价格的升高，开采公司利润率的升高可以使投资收益大幅上涨。假设一个开采公司在黄金价格为1000美元时利润是200美元。如果黄金价格上涨10%达到1100美元，则该公司的营业毛利将达到300美元，即上涨50%。

当然，投资黄金股票时还需要考虑其他问题，例如政治风险和黄金产量水平的维持。

投资实物黄金最常见的方式通过标准普尔存托凭证（SPDR）的黄金股ETF持有黄金。在投资ETF时需要注意净资产价值，因为有时购买价格会大福度超过净资产价值，尤其是当人们处于乐观状态时。

黄金开采公司包括Barrick Gold、Newmont Mining、Goldcorp和Anglogold Ashanti。想要消极投资黄金开采公司的投资者可以考虑黄金矿业股票ETF（Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF ），其中包含所有主要的黄金开采公司。

其他投资选择

虽然黄金是通胀中的一种投资方式，但是却不是唯一的选项。大宗商品通常都会在通胀中受益，因为它们具有定价权。投资大宗商品型企业的关键是选择那些低成本的生产商。更加保守的投资者将会考虑TIPS等通胀保值债券。你不会在通胀侵蚀你的资金的时候认为闲置资金是个好的选择。

总结

在投资黄金时，你不能忽视人类的心理影响。黄金一直是伴随着经济萧条和衰退的恐惧和不确定时期的投资首选。

Why Gold Matters

By Sham Gad | Updated June 28, 2016 — 11:50 AM EDT

 While economic recessions usually draw many comparisons to The Great Depression, so far there has been little (if any) historical precedent to the monetary and fiscal stimulative policies that our country embraced in the fall of 2008. For many investors, gold has never been seriously considered as a long-term investment.  

The Gold Conundrum
The topic of investing in gold came to the forefront of many investors' minds during the 2008-2009 recession. The most obvious reason for this was due to the rise in the price of gold. Market watchers love to sensationalize any stock or asset class that is experiencing a rise in price as the next possible investment to latch on to. Yet the rise in the price of gold happened largely due to people buying physical gold or betting on the metal through various investment options, such as ETFs or gold miner stocks.

The Great Recession of 2008 is set to have profound effects on our economic system for decades to come. This was also seen after the UK voted to leave the EU in 2016, when gold prices soared as Britain's economic future was deemed highly uncertain.

Problems with Gold as an Investment
Before jumping on the gold bandwagon, first examine reasons why investing in gold holds fundamental problems.

The main problem with gold is that, unlike other commodities, it does not get used up. Once gold is mined, it stays with you. A barrel of oil is turned into gas and other products that are expended and grains are consumed. Gold on the other hand is turned into jewelry, used in art, stored in vaults, or a variety of other uses. Regardless of its final destination, gold's chemical composition is such that it cannot be used up. 

Because of this, the supply demand argument that can be made for commodities like oil, copper, grains, and so forth doesn't hold up for gold. 

History Overcomes This Problem
However, unlike other commodities, gold has been the facination of human societies since the beginning of time. Empires and kingdoms were built and destroyed over gold. As societies developed, gold was universally accepted as a satisfactory form of payment. In short, history has given gold a power unlike any other commodity on the planet.

And that power has never really disappeared. The U.S. monetary system was based on a gold standard until the 1970s. Proponents of the gold standard argue that this monetary system effectively controls the expansion of credit and enforces discipline on lending standards since the amount of credit created is linked to a physical supply of gold. It's hard to argue with that line of thinking after nearly three decades of a credit explosion in the U.S. led to the financial meltdown in the fall of 2008.

From a fundamental perspective, gold is generally viewed as a favorable hedge against inflation. Gold functions as a good store of value against a declining currency. 

Investing in Gold
The easiest way to gain exposure to gold is through the stock market, in which you can invest in actual gold bullion or gold mining companies. Investing in gold bullion won't give the leverage that you get from investing in gold mining stocks. As the price of gold goes up, miners' higher profit margins can boost earnings exponentially. Suppose a mining company has a profit margin of $200 when the price of gold is $1000. If the price of gold goes up 10% to $1100 an ounce, the operating margin of the gold miners goes to $300, a 50% increase.

Of course, there are other issues to consider with gold mining stocks, namely political risk (since many operate in third world countries), and maintaining gold production levels. 

The most common way to invest in physical gold is through the SPDR's Gold Shares (NYSE:GLD) ETF, which simply holds gold. When investing in ETFs, pay attention to net asset value (NAV) as sometimes the purchase can exceed NAV by a wide margin, especially when folks are optimistic.

Gold mining companies include Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX), Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM), Goldcorp (NYSE:GG), and Anglogold Ashanti (NYSE:AU). Passive investors who want great exposure to the gold miners may consider the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDX) which includes investments in all the major miners.

Alternative Investment Considerations
While gold is a good bet on inflation, it's certainly not the only one. Commodities in general benefit from inflation, since they have pricing power. The key consideration when investing in commodity-based businesses is to go for the low-cost producer or producers. More conservative investors would consider inflation-protected securities like TIPS. The one thing you don't want is to be sitting idle in cash thinking you're doing well when inflation is eroding the value of your dollar.

The Bottom Line

In investing, you can't ignore the effect of human psychology when it comes to gold. Gold has always been a go-to investment during times of fear and uncertainty, which tend to go hand in hand with economic recessions and depressions.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/why-gold-matters.asp