Lawrence Pines 2016年6月30日
2016年的银行仍在努力从2008年的经济大萧条中恢复。美国有史以来纳税人进行的最大救助又对美国银行产生了新的挑战。2008年疲软的经济环境导致美联储采取激进措施进行减息。这个历史上最低水平的利率压低了放贷的盈利能力。与此同时，筹集资金和限制自营交易的新规定进一步压缩了利润。
一些分析人士认为提高利率能解决银行业遇到的这一问题。首先，更高的利率能够增加银行放贷的利润。2008年到2016年的低利率已经严重压缩了银行利润。欧洲央行将欧元区的存款基准利率设置为负值，这一举措更严重影响了银行的盈利。德国最大银行德意志银行的股价几乎处于历史最低点。
其次，更高的利率往往能带来更好的消费者支出并促进工资增长。改善的经济环境能对银行的盈利能力起到进一步的促进。然而，增加利率会导致美元升值，尤其是在美元利率增加比其它货币高的时候。那么接下来的问题就是美元升值是否会对美国银行有所帮助。
美元强势有助于增加房贷利润
由于金融危机的推动，美元指数（USDX）从2008年7月的85点变为2009年三月的97点。在2009年3月之后美指开始缓慢下降，到2011年7月变为80点。在接下来的三年半左右时间中美指都在80点左右徘徊，之后在2015年迅速走高。一份同时期的美国银行净利息收益率调查表明银行的盈利能力在美元下跌时受创，并随着美元上涨回复。净利息收益率测量银行利息收益与向借款人支付利息的差额，因此是银行盈利能力的主要测量手段。净利息收益率从2010年第一季度的3.83%下降到2015年第一季度的2.95%。之后上涨到2016年第一季度的3.02%。
美元与银行盈利能力的关键测量手段之间的关联非常明显。利率下降通常伴随着美元疲软。尽管美联储直到2015年12月才抬高利率，但是2015年美指的升高却与美联储有密切关系。如果美联储提高利率并且美元升值，那么净利息收益率可能会上升。
美元强势损害大宗商品
虽然美元强势有助于提高净利息收益率，但是却可能不会使银行的其他业务受益。大宗商品价格同样显示出与美元有很强的相关性。一项关于美元指数与原油价格的调查显示尽管程度有所不同，二者在过去十年的走势呈相反方向。在对美指和更多大宗商品的调查中也呈现出相同的关系。全球大宗商品以美元计价，因此二者之间通常都会反向移动。
2016年2月的公开数据显示美国银行在大宗商品领域有大量投资。摩根大通在石油和天然气勘探行业的投资占其批发信贷的6%，金属和采矿行业占2%。该银行在石油天然气勘探行业的投资为5.5亿美元，在金属和采矿行业的投资为0.68亿美元。与此同时，花旗银行有9%的投资在石油和天然气行业，26%的投资在勘探开发行业。花旗银行有32%的投资在非投资级债务上。
关键结论
美元强势可能对银行业产生两个互相矛盾的结果。一方面，美元强势可能会使大宗商品持续疲软，这可能会严重影响大银行的资产负债表及损益表。另一方面，美元强势可以改善银行的贷款利润率。投资者面临的问题是改善的贷款利润率能否抵消投资大宗商品带来的坏账。无论如何，美元的强势对银行股来说都不简单的是一个灵丹妙药。
Why the Dollar Can't Help U.S. Banks
By Lawrence Pines | June 30, 2016 — 9:00 AM EDT
The banking industry in 2016 is still struggling to recover from the Great Recession of 2008. The biggest taxpayer-funded bailout in U.S. history produced new challenges for U.S. banks. The weak economic environment in 2008 led to aggressive action by the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) to lower interest rates. The historically low level of rates compressed the profitability of lending. At the same time, new regulations raised capital requirements and curtailed proprietary trading, which further squeezed profits.
Some analysts suggest a rise in interest rates might cure banks' problems. First of all, higher rates allow banks to generate larger spreads on loans. The low interest rate environment from 2008 to 2016 has punished bank profits. The European Central Bank (ECB), which sets key interest rates for the eurozone, has kept rates on its deposit facility negative, which severely impacts the ability of banks to make profits. Shares of Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB), Germany's largest bank by assets, are trading near all-time lows.
Secondly, higher rates usually follow better consumer spending and wage increases. The improved economic environment could provide further stimulus for bank profitability. However, higher interest rates may lead to a stronger U.S. dollar, especially if U.S. rates move higher than rates in other countries. The question, then, is if a higher dollar helps U.S. Banks.
Strong Dollar Helps Lending Profits
A flight to quality during the financial crisis propelled the Fed's U.S. dollar index (USDX) from 85 in July 2008 to 97 by March 2009. After that point in March 2009, the index began a slow descent that carried it to 80 by July 2011. After churning in the mid-80s for the next 3 and a half years, the index moved rapidly higher in 2015. An examination of net interest margins for U.S. banks over the same period shows that bank profitability suffered from the move lower in the dollar and gradually recovered as the dollar rose. Net interest margins measure the difference between banks' interest income and the interest they pay out to their lenders, and are therefore a key measure of bank profitability. Net interest margins declined from 3.83% in the first quarter of 2010 to 2.95% the first quarter of 2015. They then rose to 3.02% in the first quarter of 2016.
The correlation between the dollar and a key measure of profitability for banks is clear. Lower interest rates generally correspond with a weaker dollar. Although the Fed did not raise rates until December 2015, the move higher in the U.S. dollar index in 2015 anticipated tightening by the Fed. If the Fed raised rates and the dollar strengthened, the net interest margins may rise.
Strong Dollar Hurts Commodities
While the strong dollar may help net interest margins, it may not be beneficial to other bank businesses. Commodity prices also show a strong correlation with the dollar index. An examination of the U.S. dollar index and the price of oil shows that the two items have moved in an opposite direction over the last 10 years, though the extent of these moves has varied. Similar relationships exist between the dollar index and broader measures of commodities, such as the Thomson Reuters/CoreCommodity CRB Commodity Index. Market price global commodities in U.S. dollars and, therefore, commodities and the U.S. dollar generally move inversely.
Publicly available data from February 2016 shows that U.S. banks have significant exposure to the commodities sector. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) had 6% of its wholesale credit exposure to the oil and gas exploration industry and 2% to the metals and mining sector. The bank had $550 million in reserves against its oil and gas exposure and $68 million against its metals and mining exposure. Meanwhile, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) had 9% of its total exposure to oil and gas, 26% of which was to exploration and production. Citigroup had 32% of its exposure to non-investment-grade debt.
Key Takeaways
Strength in the U.S. dollar may create two contradictory results for the banking industry. On the one hand, dollar strength should produce continued weakness in commodity prices, which could significantly impact both the balance sheets and income statements of the largest banks. On the other hand, dollar strength should improve lending margins for banks. The question for investors is whether improvements in net interest margins can offset expected write-downs for bad loans from commodity investments. Regardless, strength in the dollar is not a simple panacea for bank stocks.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets-economy/063016/why-dollar-cant-help-us-banks.asp