经济数据对市场的影响及对应方法

美國——消費者情緒

這是由美國麥葛根大學主持的一個大型調查，旨在調查消費者面對當前或未來經濟發展的因素而表現出的消費意向。

每次數據調查都以500人為基數，並在每月的第二個周五作出速報數字的公布，然後再隔兩周公布最終的結果；這一個調查結果，跟消費者的消費強度，有非常直接的關係——即是說，消費者情緒越高，當月消費部份的經濟表理通常都會較強勁。

US - Construction Spending

How does this affect the market?

The dollar value of new construction activity on residential, nonresidential, and public projects. Data are available in nominal and real (inflation-adjusted) dollars.

Construction spending has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities because it is a part of the economy that is affected by interest rates, business cash flow and even federal fiscal policy. In a more specific sense, trends in the construction data carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders and large-scale construction contractors. Commodity prices such as lumber are also very sensitive to housing industry trends. Businesses only put money into the construction of new factories or offices when they are confident that demand is strong enough to justify the expansion. The same goes for individuals making the investment in a home. A portion of construction spending is related to government projects such as education buildings as well a highways and streets. Why investors are more concerned with private construction spending, the government projects put money in the hands of laborers who then have more money to spend on goods and services. Thats why construction spending is a good indicator of the economys momentum.

US - ISM Mfg Index

How does this affect the market?

The Institute for Supply Management surveys nearly 400 manufacturing firms on employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A composite diffusion index of national manufacturing conditions is constructed, where reading above (below) 50 percent indicate an expanding (contracting) factory sector. Export orders, import orders, backlog orders and prices paid for raw and unfinished materials are also measured, but these are not included in the overall index.

p.3

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data like the ISM manufacturing index, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures. The ISM manufacturing data gives a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. More than one of the ISM sub-indexes provides insight on commodity prices and clues regarding the potential for developing inflation. The Federal Reserve keeps a close watch on this report that helps it to determine the direction of interest rates when inflation signals are flashing in these data. As a result, the bond market is highly sensitive to this report.

US - Motor Vehicle Sales

How does this affect the market?

Individual automakers (including foreign & domestic makes) report unit sales of domestically-produced cars and light duty trucks (including sport utility vehicles and mini-vans). Motor vehicle sales are good indicators of trends in consumer spending.

Since motor vehicle sales are an important element of consumer spending, market players watch this closely to get a handle on the direction of the economy. The pattern of consumption spending is one of the foremost influences on stock and bond markets. Strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. The bond market focus is on whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s. Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market in 2000 and 2001, although motor vehicle sales moderated to a lesser extent. A low interest rate environment environment through 2004 curtailed the decline in motor vehicle sales. In a more specific sense, auto and truck sales show market conditions for auto makers and the slew of auto-related companies. These figures can influence particular stock

p.4

prices and provide insight to investment opportunities in this industry. Given that most consumers borrow money to buy cars or trucks, sales also reflect confidence in current and future economic conditions.

GB - CIPS Services PMI

 3/12   首页 上一页 1 2 3 4 5 6 下一页 尾页