如何利用重大经济事件制定交易计划

交易决策要依照计划而行，而如何设定计划则要利用每天的交易机会和非正常环境提供的潜在获利机会。

在新闻时段进行交易是有一定困难的，尤其是出人意料的新闻事件。首先，重大新闻事件是完全无法预料的，比如2015年的黑天鹅事件。

第二个难题是如何在新闻时段进行交易。如果事件导致了意料之外的变化，就需要思考市场会如何反应，这种变化会产生怎样的潜在结果，这是很难预料的。

以瑞士法郎为例，市场反应非常迅速，一瞬间损失了30%的价值，数十亿美金消失。多个经纪商一瞬间破产，即使没有破产，也难以支付仓位，因为之后的走势也难以预料。大多数经纪商都被迫暂停交易，几天之后，流动性供应商和监管机构才找到更好的解决方案。最终，顺势卖空的投资者也没有赚到太多，因为经纪商的风险管理工具自动关闭了他们的仓位，暂停了交易，无法开仓平仓。而破产经纪商名下的客户也遭受了亏损，因为他们无力支付客户。

这是个比较极端的例子，足以体现出黑天鹅这类事件的高风险性。其他的交易事件通常达不到黑天鹅的程度，反而会提供很棒的交易机会和更稳定的获利空间，比如网络泡沫和GFC的爆发、比特币在2013年的走势反转等。

每个人都会制定不同的交易计划，所以在制定方案的问题上提供建议是很难的。但是重大事件下的市场不会遵守常规的市场规律。因此某一事件的准入标准可能是完全相反的，所以在设定进入点时需要多加思考。

此外，重大事件时期的市场表现也会大相径庭，说明退出点也不能以常理推断。

对于技术分析员来说，如果不了解基本分析的内容，很难对市场走势进行合理的解释。这对很多技术分析员来说是个难题。对于基本分析员来讲，如果没有研究过技术指标和图表活动，虽能理解原因，但也无法完美解释市场为何如此反应。

最好的办法是回顾以前的新闻事件。先观察事件发生时，常规的计划如何开始，哪里有不合用之处。如果你的常规方法或指标可以使用，那么就无需调整。如果你需要针对不同的市场环境进行调整，就要给你的计划设定不同的前提条件。如果都不好用，就找到好用的再用。

然后用同样的方法对现有的策略进行修改。

总的来说，对市场活动的历史表现进行分析是非常重要的，这会加深你的理解，促进交易的成功。留意观察财经日历或是经济指标，它们会告诉你有利可图的事件何时发生。

How to take advantage of important economic events through your trading plan
 
Your trading plan is the main template for every trading decision. Whilst plans are designed to take advantage of everyday trading opportunities, unusual situations that offer great potential profitability should be incorporated into the scope of every trading plan.

There are a few difficulties in trading an event, particularly a market shattering one. The first is that a really surprising event, in the likes of the Black Swan event of 2015, are highly unexpected.

The second main difficulty is the issue of how to trade the actual event. If the event is something that creates a new unexpected paradigm, understanding how the market will react, and particularly how the new paradigm defines the potential outcome is something that is difficult to gauge.

To use the unlinking of the Swiss franc as an example, the market reacted so suddenly to the news that it lost in excess of 30% of its value immediately, wiping billions off the market. All in one moment, several brokers lost in excess of their holdings and became insolvent. Those that were not, had difficulty paying out positions because the speed of the movement left doubt as to whether the positions could have been filled or closed. Trading was basically halted by most brokers, and it took days for feed providers and regulators to understand how the situation could have been better handled. In the end, many of those with positions in place to take advantage of the drop did not necessarily receive their profit, with their brokerage’s risk management tools automatically closing their positions, halting trading, unable to identify close or open positions and a variety of other reasons. And many of those who traded with an insolvent broker also lost, as there was no one to pay them out.

Whilst this was an extreme example, it serves to highlight the risks involved in a black swan type event.

Other trading events, though not on the level of a black swan, but more like the bursting of the dot com bubble or the GFC, or paradigm shifts like the emergence of bitcoin in 2013, provide excellent trading opportunities and a much more stable capacity to recoup profits.

Everyone has a different plan and style of trading, so providing advice on incorporating it into the plan is a bit tricky. But a significant market event will generally not fall within the trading rules set out in a plan designed to trade in regular market conditions. The entry criteria are likely to be completely different for an event, and thus some thought needs to be taken into account as to how to identify the entry point.

In addition, the market behaviour during a significant event is generally different as well, meaning that the exit criteria are also unusable.

For those who are technical traders, it might be difficult to identify the reason for the event without understanding the fundamental elements. This in itself might be a challenge for many technical traders. For a fundamental trader, understanding the reasons might not fully give an understanding of how the market is likely to react without studying the technical indicators and chart activity.

The best method for creating a new plan for an event is to go back to previous events. Start by seeing how your regular entry plan works with the event and where it was not able to be used. If your regular method or indicators provide you with insight into how to trade, then use them. If they need modification to address the different market conditions, modify them whilst remembering to supplement your entry plan with an extra set of requirements which determine that an event is actually occurring. If they don’t work, find ones that do and use them.

Then do the same for your exit strategy.

Ultimately, it is important to analyze historical market activities at significant market events, so that you will understand them and be able to trade them successfully. One eye on the market calendar or those economic indicators will then give you some warning when the next profitable event might occur.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：https://www.leaprate.com/experts/adinah-brown/take-advantage-important-economic-events-trading-plan/