外汇走势可以预测吗？

伊恩·科普赛

我经常听到交易者说价格走势是可以预测的。

我认为绝对是可以预测的，而且也实践中证明了技术分析有极大的准确性。

经济学家们当然对此不屑一顾，他们不相信会有比经济理论更好的方法。

那么交易新手和老手应该用何种方式预测价格走势呢？说实话，每个人的方法都是不一样的。他们最需要做的是评估自己的技能。他们是天生的分析师还是交易员？每种人在分析中都有不同的思考模式。

一个纯粹的交易员是反应式的，他们想要快速决策、快速交易。

一个纯粹的分析师是思考式的，会考量影响市场的多方因素，深思熟虑之后才会做出决定。

大部分市场参与者是混合式的。他们有时迅速反应、做出决定，有时又犹豫再三，仔细计算入场点和出场点。

那么一个交易新手该如何选择分析方式呢？

我是一个纯粹的分析者。我的分析不掺杂任何基本因素。我是一个100%的技术分析者，技术分析对我来说非常管用。我曾在市场环境良好的时候，对未来6-10个月的走势进行了预测。这是极难的技术分析。要知道，技术分析较之基本分析的优胜之处在于可以提供精确的目标点，包括回落和预期。技术分析也能提供很好的时间点。

这样说来，我是在推荐所有的交易新手专攻技术分析吗？

当然不是。

想要进行高准确率的技术信息预测，就需要对价格走势有着极其深入的了解，为什么价格会这样走，如果价格与预期走势不符，它又会怎样波动呢？我的方法是以艾略特波浪为基础的，但是在我发现艾略特的理论不适用于外汇市场之后，就对艾略特波浪加入了个人的理解。经过几年的实践应用，终于找到了合适的方法。我没有将预测方法直接投入使用，而是加入了时间周期。如果你不知道该怎么做，那就先放弃糟糕的交易。要多久才能用100%的技术分析方法进行准确的预测呢？至少需要5-10年，这取决于你的个人分析水平。

那就是说，交易新手只能专注于基本分析了吗？

其实不然。

我在基本分析方面的水平一般，但是我周围有很多基本分析师，我见证过他们的成功与失败。他们也需要时间去学习外汇市场中的异常行为，去体会用显而易见的经济因素进行预测如何一败涂地的。他们通常能预测出基本方向，但却预测不出准确的入场点和出场点。

因此，对于交易新手来讲，在进行交易决策之时要同时考虑两方面因素。基本分析更受欢迎是因为更容易概念化。基本分析看起来比技术分析更有逻辑。交易新手学会一点基本分析的皮毛要比技术分析入门要容易得多。

但更大的问题是，何时入场，在哪里止损。只有技术分析能够解决这个问题。因为技术分析的熟练过程需要很长时间，订阅技术服务会起到一定的帮助作用。因为80%的交易者都不是天生的分析师，所以对大多数交易者来说，长期订阅分析服务是很有帮助的，通过尝试不同的服务，选出最适合自己的交易方式。

何时入场、为何入场、何时获利、何时亏损，在这几个问题上要态度坚定。如果你的交易策略中不包含这几点，你就要承受更多不必要的亏损。

成功盈利的关键是学习和坚持。众所周知，交易是个压力山大的职业，这不是个简单的消遣，对持有大量信息的机构交易员来说亦是如此。但是当前的环境中，个人交易者也可以获得足够的信息，只要做好了功课，盈利也是可观的。

Is it possible to forecast future Forex movements?

I often hear traders claim that it is impossible to forecast price movement.

I can categorically claim that it is possible, and have considerable success and good accuracy in the process utilizing technical analysis in 100% of my forecasting.

Economists of course laugh at the idea that there can be any other method than applying economic theory.

So how should new, and for that matter experienced traders, formulate their own approach to forecasting future price movements? To be honest it is something personal to each trader. The most important factor they need assess is their own personal skill set. Are they analysts by nature, or are they traders. Each has a completely different mind set and also different abilities in terms of analyzing.

A pure trader is reactive, wants to trade and wants to make quick decisions.

A pure analyst is reflective, ponders decisions but likes to explore different factors that are affecting the market.

Most market participants are a hybrid of the two. Some err on the side of reaction and some err on the side of making sure of their trade, planning the entry and exits.

So how should a new trader decide what he or she should do in terms of analysis?

I am a pure analyst. I include no fundamental factors in my analysis. I am 100% pure technical analysis and I can be no other way since it works well for me. I have been able to forecast approximate targets 6-10 months in the future when the circumstances all work together well. That is how strong technical analysis can be. If an analyst knows what they are doing the advantage that technical analysis has over fundamental analysis is the ability to provide accurate targets, both on retracements and projections. It may also provide good timing.

In that case, do I recommend that all new traders base their trading on technical analysis alone?

Indeed not.

To be able to forecast with technical analysis in this way with a high success ratio requires a deep understanding of price movement, why it does what it does and what happens when it doesn’t move in the way that has been predicted. My method is based around Elliott Wave and a purely personal interpretation of Elliott Wave since I have found the Elliott’s methodology does not really apply to the Forex market, Elliott Wave takes years of practice and use to feel comfortable applying it. I also use time cycles which are also not plain straight forward to apply. If you don’t know what you are doing then you can end up making very bad trades. How long would it take to forecast accurately utilizing 100% technical methodologies? At least 5-10 years depending on the individual’s analytical skills.

So does that imply that new traders should base their trading on fundamental analysis alone?

Indeed not.

I am not a skillful fundamental analyst but I have worked with several and have seen their successes and failures. Certainly they require time to understand the vagaries of the Forex market and how what appear to be understandable and underlying economic factors can apparently fail totally. They can often forecast the underlying direction but what is impossible is to forecast precise levels to enter or exit.

Thus, for the new trader it is important to incorporate both elements into trade decisions. Fundamentals are normally favored because it is easier to conceptualize the concepts. They appear logical while technical analysis does not. It is normally easier for a new trader to become a little more skillful in applying fundamentals in a quicker time than he/she can with technical analysis.

However, the bigger problem for traders is knowing when to enter and where to place stops. The only solution is technical analysis. Since the process of understanding how to use technical analysis will take time it can be useful to subscribe to a technical service. Since probably 80% of traders are not analytical in nature it could be that most traders will find it useful to subscribe to an analytical service permanently and will need to try several services to see which suits their own personal style of trading.

Choosing an analytical service is important. Since there are always several ways a price pattern can develop what a good service must do for you is provide you with guidance to the possible alternatives, the levels that confirm a move and when it breaks down. It is vital to have a firm view of when to enter, why you are entering and when to take profit, or take a loss. Not to have this in your trading strategy will cause you more losses than you need take.

The key to successful and profitable trading is study and that means hard work. It is well know that trading is a stressful profession and that in itself implies that it is not a simple pastime, even for institutional traders who have a wealth of information at hand. However, there is enough information available to private traders these days and for the savvy who do their homework, there are good profits to be made.

Ian Copsey

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
文章来源：http://www.actionforex.com/articles-library/forex-articles/is-it-possible-to-forecast-future-forex-movements%3f-2006092511156/