日元为什么不会下跌

FXstreet.com  2016年3月20日

荷兰兰博银行报告分析师Jane Foley指出因为2月中旬道琼斯工业平均指数恢复年初以来损失的价值，风险开始回升。

主要引证

“德国DAX指数已经恢复到下跌之前的73%，而日经平均指数只恢复到50%。日本股票长期弱势的最简单解释是因为日元持续的强劲。但是值得注意的是，日元在过去一个月没有随着股票市场和风险资产的回暖而削弱。尽管近几周的风险整体水平有所改善且日本央行在2月29日宣布负利率政策，以日元为避险手段的资金流入并没有减少。

除了日元，日本债券的需求也在持续。美联储比预期温和的态度已经对整体债券的收益率产生影响。投资者加剧的对日本债券的需求增加了对供应缺乏的担忧，因为债券已经受到日本央行大量宽松政策的影响。投机者认为宽松政策将会在今年被加大力度，这进一步加剧了对日本央行今年日元供应短缺的担忧。

虽然低收益率通常会削弱货币，但是根据彭博社的报道，投资者使用日本国债进行的交叉货币基础互换增加了对日元的需求。日本政府公布的数据显示，在过去五周中流入日本的净资金增加2.762万亿日元，这增加了对日元的需求。

展望未来我们确实看到日元在未来几个月兑换美元将丧失一些价值。这种观点基于两个关键因素。第一个是假设美国的通胀指标将会上升，使美联储能最早在6月提高利率。由于对美国债券收益增高的预期，我们会发现资金将流向美元。第二个因素是假设美联储能在不把投资者推向例如日元的避险资产情况下实现这一目标。即使实现这一目标，我们也不认为USD/JPY会上涨太多。鉴于世界经济增长的缓慢速度和对货币政策有效性的以及过多的政治风险的担忧我们把USD/JPY12个月之后的目标价格定在116。”

JPY: Why won’t it fall? - Rabobank

By FXstreet.com | March 20, 2016

Jane Foley, Research Analyst at Rabobank, suggests that the rebound in risk appetite since the middle of February has allowed the DJIA to recoup all of the losses registered at the start of the year.

Key Quotes

“The DAX has recovered around 73% of its fall but by contrast the Nikkei 225 has only covered 50%. The simplest explanation for the underperformance of Japanese stocks is the continued strength of the JPY. However, it is notable that the JPY has not weakened over the past month as stock markets and risky assets have recovered. Despite the improvement in general levels of risk appetite in recent weeks and the BoJ’s announcement of negative interest rates on January 29, the JPY has proved reluctant to relinquish its safe haven inflows.

In addition to the JPY, Japanese bonds have also been in demand. The more dovish than expected tone of the Fed this week had the impact of depressing bond yields in general. Heightened investor demand for JGBs has been reinforcing concerns about a lack of supply which were already prevalent given the BoJ’s enormous QQE plan. Speculation that QQE could be extended later this year has further enhanced fears of JGB supply shortages.

Although low yields will usually trigger a weaker currency, according to Bloomberg foreign investors have been able to used favourable cross-currency basis-swaps to bolster returns from JGB which has underpinned demand for the paper. Portfolio flows appear to validate the view that there has been overseas demand for JGBs. Data released by the Ministry of In total Japanese net international portfolio flows have seen an increase of JPY 2762 bln over the past 5 weeks which in turn has helped support the JPY.

Looking ahead we do see scope for the JPY to relinquish some ground against the USD in the coming months. This view depends on two key factors. The first is the assumption that US inflation indicators will pick up to allow the Fed to hike interest rates this year potentially as soon as June. On an anticipated rise in US bond yields we would expect flows to be drawn into the greenback. The second factor assumes that he Fed can engineer this without sending investors scurrying into safe haven assets such as the yen. Even if this is achieved we do not expect USD/JPY to rise too far this year. In view of the slow pace of world growth, concerns over the effectiveness of extraordinary monetary policy settings and the plethora of political risks we have a 12 mth target at USD/JPY116.”

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/fxstreet/forex/news/jpy-why-wont-it-fall-rabobank.aspx