达拉斯联储主席反对零利率政策

达拉斯联储主席 Rob Kaplan 在周三的就职演讲中表示，要告别零利率政策，反映出美联储对货币政策的态度。

上一任达拉斯联储主席 Richard Fisher 是个对美联储政策委员会态度强硬的局外人，并且善于引用温斯顿·丘吉尔和米克·贾吉尔的名言。

Kaplan 在九月加入美联储后发表了第一次演讲，他极力避免与对手费希尔发生冲突，并对国家和德州的经济前景进行了详尽的描述。

他说：“宽松的政策并不意味着联邦基金利率为零。”

Kaplan 曾任高盛集团副总裁和哈佛大学商学院教授，他认为零利率可能会导致商业投资决策的扭曲。

他说：“扭曲的后果不会立时出现，但会导致投资、存货和雇佣决策的不平衡，在政策恢复正常之后，严重的后果才会显现。”

Kaplan 在2017年之后才会拥有美联储政策委员会的投票权。他认为美联储至今未增加利率是“明智的”。

美联储大多数官员对2008年以来的零利率政策都表示过不安。

自六月推迟加息以后，美联储在十月表示，是否应该在十二月的会议上加息仍值得商榷。

美联储主席 Janet Yellen 随后表示，下个月加息“极有可能”。

周三早些时候，其他三个地区的美联储主席也支持不久后的加息。

华尔街日报报道，拥有2015年投票权的亚特兰大联储主席 Dennis Lockhart 表示支持不久后的加息。Lockhart 称美联储加息是有条件的。进一步加强劳动力市场，这一条已经满足了，而国际金融市场动荡问题已在十月的会议中得到解决。

同样地，拥有2016年投票权的克里兰夫联储主席 Loretta Mester 重申，她认为当前的经济能够消化十二月的小幅加息。

里奇蒙德联储主席 Jeffrey Lacker 在 CNBC 访问中表示，他会继续支持加息。 Laker 在前两次会议中曾对加息表示反对。

下一次美联储会议将在12月15日-16日举行。

在Kaplan 演讲之后发布的美联储十月会议记录显示，大多数与会者都认为，下次会议可能会达到紧缩的条件。

Federal Reserve Bank of DallasDallas Fed president joins chorus of those who see reason to end zero-rate policy

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Rob Kaplan, the president of the Dallas Fed, in his inaugural speech Wednesday expressed the need to let go of the zero interest rate policy, a position that puts him in the center of the U.S. central bank’s views on monetary policy.

Kaplan’s predecessor, Richard Fisher, often found himself a hawkish outlier on the Fed policy committee and was famous for speeches that quoted both Winston Churchill and Mick Jagger.

In his first speech since joining the Fed in September, Kaplan seemed to be deliberately trying to avoid competing with Fisher, presenting a detailed, if dry, overview of the national and Texas economic outlooks.

Kaplan said that the outlook for the U.S. economy seemed to justify a lower-than-usual federal funds rates and that a return to “normal” rates would be gradual.

“However, accommodative policy does not necessarily mean a zero fed funds rate,” he said.

Kaplan, a former vice chairman of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and a professor at the Harvard Business School, said zero rates could lead to distortions in business and investment decisions.

These distortions, which are hard to see in real time, “can create imbalances in investments, inventory and hiring decisions that may later need to be painfully unwound when policy normalizes,” he said.

Kaplan, who won't have a vote on the Fed policy committee until 2017, didn't specify whether he would back a rate hike in December. He said the decision by the U.S. central bank not to hike rates so far this year was “prudent.”

Most Fed officials have expressed similar unease with rates stuck at zero since late 2008.

After considering delaying a rate hike at every meeting since June, the Fed said in October, for the first time, that it would consider whether it would be appropriate to hike rates at its next meeting in December.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen followed up by telling Congress a rate hike next month was a “live possibility.”

Earlier Wednesday, three other regional Fed presidents also backed a rate hike in the near future.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, a voting member this year, told a panel discussion in New York that he is comfortable moving rates higher “soon,” according to The Wall Street Journal. Lockhart said the one of the Fed’s criteria for a rate hike — further improvement in the labor market- has been met and international financial market volatility issues have settled down since the last Fed meeting in October.

Speaking on the same panel, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, a voter in 2016, repeated she thinks the economy can handle a small rate hike in December.

And Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said in a CNBC interview that he also continues to support a rate increase. Lacker has dissented at the last two Fed meetings in favor of a rate hike.

The Fed next meets on Dec. 15-16.

Minutes of the Fed’s October meeting released after Kaplan spoke, confirmed that “most” participants at the meeting anticipated that conditions for tightening could well be met by that meeting.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dallas-fed-president-like-most-of-his-colleagues-sees-reasons-to-let-go-of-zero-rates-2015-11-18