2016年会是一个熊市吗？

Dan Moskowitz  2015年10月29日

你可能不认同以下观点，但是它却是根据纯粹逻辑学建立的。逻辑通常都会在投资界取得胜利，尤其是当你对自己的仓位有信心而且不断逢低买入时。

当前的经济和投资环境非常独特并呈现了一个巨大的机会，虽然机会是在做空上而不是做多上。这里的风险是做空如果是错误的而且使用逆向交易所交易基金将会导致灾难性的后果。如果你同意下列观点，考虑1倍反向交易所交易基金。他们不那么剧烈并给你一个做空市场的机会，至少能对冲你的多头。

国内前景

你还记得2008年投资市场的灾难吗？你还记得2008年末和2009年股票持续下跌和我们的经济通货紧缩吗？但是那不是终点。如果美联储没有干预那种趋势将会继续。

尽管市场崩盘的催化剂是次贷危机，但是早在一年之前发生了别的因素——婴儿潮一代开始退休。那一代是历史上最大的一代，也是历史上消费支出最多的一代，从那时开始收入降低，导致消费支出的下降。这是通货紧缩，美联储和这种现象斗争了很多年。通过保持低利率，允许大额借贷辅助股票。

美联储没有尝试控制通货膨胀。反之则是不断通过人为手段对抗通货紧缩制造通胀。这也是大宗商品在危机后短短几年就飙升的原因。但是全球通货紧缩的事实也让大宗商品价格降回原来水平。美联储的政策开始在对抗经济现实中失去作用。

全球前景

你可能注意到了上面全球那个词。这是因为中国和日本，即第二大和第三大经济体也在进入老龄化。对美国和中国来说幸运的是，人口和消费最终将会回升，但是日本则不会。但是让我们把目光关注下未来几年。

为什么说中国和日本而不提已经进行宽松货币政策的欧元区？那是因为他们也在和通货紧缩作斗争。当美联储无能为力时，其他央行开始介入。但是现在这些行为影响的时间越来越短。几年以后，一个央行削减利率将会产生持久的影响。现在这个影响持续几周已经算好的了。这意味着我们正迈向流动性高峰。

大宗商品剧烈下跌是即将到来的通货紧缩的一个预示，这证明了美联储的政策不再和过去一样管用。美联储也因为利率上升而受困，再不久之后将会再次降低，这使美联储看起来非常愚蠢而且使经济看起来一团糟。如果美联储不移动利率，那么就证明以前所做的对经济复苏一点作用没有。

美联储是一个巨大的因素，但是中国的影响更大。目前，它正在关注自己的经济风暴。中国股票回暖可能需要几周甚至几个月。然而在那之后，中国将会再次对其货币进行贬值，这将导致美元走强和美国跨国公司销量和利润下降。当然，这对股市不是个好消息。

即使这一现象不会实现，美国经济也不像看起来那样强劲而且不可能在没有美联储的帮助下自己崛起。讽刺的是失败对经济来说是最好的药，因为能停止为子孙后代增加更多的债务让经济重新设置。虽然是痛苦的，但是必要的。

总结

央行的行为使许多人相信复苏已经开始。事实是他们在人工推动复苏，这会使将来处理这一情况更加复杂。央行们的通性处于顶点，中国经济正处于风暴中，美联储受困，2016年很有可能成为熊市。

Will 2016 Bring a Bear Market?

By Dan Moskowitz | October 29, 2015 

You might not agree with the following assessment, but it’s based on pure logic. Logic tends to win in the investment world, especially if you have total conviction in your positions and continue adding to them on dips, thereby playing to win and greatly increasing your return.

The current economic and investing environment is unique and presents significant opportunity, though that opportunity is on the short side, not the long side. The risk here is that shorting individual stocks can lead to disastrous results if you’re incorrect, and using inverse exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can lead to extremely volatile rides. If you agree with the assessment below, consider 1x inverse ETFs. They are not as volatile yet still give you an opportunity to short the market, or at least hedge with your long positions.

Domestic Outlook

Do you remember the disastrous 2008 investing environment? Do you remember that stocks were continuing their descent and that our economy was deflationary in late 2008 and 2009? But that’s not the ultimate point. The ultimate point is that these trends would have continued if it hadn’t been for Federal Reserve intervention.

Despite subprime being the catalyst for the market crash, something else happened one year earlier in 2007 – Baby Boomers began retiring. The largest generation in history, as well as the largest spending generation in history, was now beginning to see lower incomes, which would lead to a decline in consumer spending. This is deflationary, and it’s what the Federal Reserve has been fighting against for years. By keeping interest rates at record lows, this has allowed for excessive borrowing, which has aided stocks.

The Federal Reserve hasn't been trying to keep inflation in check. It has been trying to fight against deflation by artificially creating inflation. This is why commodities soared in the few years following the financial crisis. But the reality of global deflation is also why commodities have come back down. Federal Reserve policies are beginning to lose the battle against economic reality.

Global Outlook

You might have noticed the word global above. That’s because China and Japan, the second- and third-largest economies in the world, are also aging. Fortunately for China and the U.S., population and consumer spending should eventually rebound, but that’s not the case in Japan. But let’s focus on the next several years. 

Why do you think China and Japan – not to mention the Eurozone – have been implementing such accommodative monetary policies? It’s because they’re also fighting against deflation. When the Federal Reserve ran out of steam, other central banks stepped in. But now the effects of those actions are becoming shorter and shorter lived. Several years ago, a central bank cutting interest rates would have a lasting impact. Now that impact is a few weeks at best. This means we’re heading for peak liquidity – an environment where central banks around the world are running out of ammunition.

This was said about the Federal Reserve for a several years, but the commodities plunge is an indicator of approaching deflation, and it proves that Federal Reserve policies don’t hold as much weight as in the past. The Federal Reserve is also trapped because if it raises rates, it will soon after lower them again, making the Federal Reserve look inept and the economy appear as though it’s in shambles. If the Federal Reserve doesn’t move, then it’s proof that what’s really taking place in the economy has nothing to do with a recovery. 

The Federal Reserve is a big factor, but China is even bigger. Currently, it’s in the eye of its economic storm. There could be a few weeks, perhaps even a few months, of Chinese equities holding their own. However, when that comes to an end, China will continue to devalue its currency, which will strengthen the U.S. dollar and lead to lower sales and profits for most U.S. multinationals. This, of course, will be bad news for stocks.

Even if this cycle weren’t to come to fruition, there is still no doubt that the U.S. economy is not as strong as advertised and that it could not stand on its own two feet without Federal Reserve support. The irony is that failure would be the best medicine since it would put a halt to adding excessive debts for future generations and allow the economy to reset. It would be painful, but necessary. 

The Bottom Line

Central bank actions have led to many believing there has been a recovery. The truth is that they have driven an artificial recovery that will make dealing with this situation only more difficult in the near future. With central banks now nearing peak liquidity, China’s economy in the eye of the storm, and the Federal Reserve being trapped, the bear market is most likely to arrive at some point in 2016. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102915/will-2016-bring-bear-market.asp