利用美联储消息交易

前面我已经提到很多次，任何自由市场的价格波动都是供给与需求之间不断寻求平衡所致。当这种简单、直截了当的均衡“失去平衡”的时候，交易机会便产生了。在任何一个市场中，当供给和需求出现严重不平衡时，意义价格便会在当前的价位发生改变。作为市场投资者的关键是有能力识别价格图表上的交易机会。最低的风险，最高的回报，以及最有可能进场做多的时间，比如，在价格低于供给曲线（需求大于供给）时做多。在这些价格水平买入，利润空间达到最大化，并且风险低。不幸的是，价格不会跌到我们希望的位置，即使达到，它也不会长久。当然，这是因为需求远大于供给。

需要考虑的另外一件事是市场价格是如何以及为什么会跌到期望位置。消息事件越强劲，交易者对消息的感知也就越大。感知越强烈，买卖交易也就越多，价格波动也就越剧烈。上周五的美联储决议，尽管消息并不是完全的出乎意料，但是仍然造成价格大幅度、迅速的波动。

许多交易者问我关于消息（诸如美联储的利率决议等消息）交易的一个同样问题：他们是否应该在消息发布之前平掉所有仓位。对此我有两个答案，第一，如果你是一个新手，且不知道如何识别真实的市场供给，那么在消息事件发布时不宜交易。第二，如果你很擅长识别真实的市场供给平衡位置，你真切地期待消息的发布，那么你就可以交易。就价格波动而言，消息只会加速即将发生的事。
 
上图中的纳斯达克期货在联邦决议之前，价格大幅下跌到我们的“期望交易区间”。接下来，价格从交易区间处快速上升。不论消息结果如何，是否强劲，价格波动都仅仅是供给不平衡导致，是一个简单的数字游戏。

华尔街告诉我们，你不能确认市场的转折点，这只是在浪费时间。如果一个普通的交易者可以预测市场的转折点，那么没有人需要华尔街。而我认为，任何一个人都可以像我们预测纳斯达克期货一样预测市场的转折点，并不是说我们在确定每一个市场转折点的时候都是正确的。通过我们的规则，我可以说一个普通的交易者可以很精确地预测市场转折点。

Trading the Fed News
As I have written about so many times, the movement of price in any and all free markets is simply a function of an ongoing supply and demand equation. Trading opportunity exists when this simple and straight forward equation is “out of balance.” Meaning prices turn at price levels where supply and demand are most out of balance, in any market. The key for the market speculator is to have the ability to identify what this picture of opportunity looks like on a price chart. The lowest risk, highest reward, and highest probability time to buy into a market, for example, is to buy at price levels way down on the supply/demand curve where demand exceeds supply. At these price levels profit margins to the upside are huge and the risk is low. Unfortunately, price does not fall to these types of desired levels as much as we would like and when it does, it doesn’t stay their long. Of course, this is because demand exceeds supply in such a big way.
Another thing to consider is how and why prices in markets fall to these desired sale prices. The stronger the news event, the greater mass perception is created. The stronger the mass perception, the more buying and selling happens and this moves price. Last week we had a Fed day. While the news was not all that unexpected, price moved fast and far.
Many traders ask me the same question regarding news days like the Fed day. They ask if they should pull their orders from the market around news events like the Fed news day last week and not trade. I have two answers… first, if you’re new to trading and don’t know how to identify real supply and demand in the markets, don’t trade around news events (don’t trade period). Second, if you are good at identifying real supply and demand in a market, you really want to be ready with orders in the market around news events. When it comes to price movement the news typically speeds up what was going to happen anyway. As you can see on the NASDAQ Futures chart above, just prior to the Fed announcement, price declined in somewhat strong fashion right into our demand zone from that mornings supply/demand grid. Next, price exploded away from that demand zone. Whatever the news is, however strong it is, the movement of price is always a function of pure supply and demand, a simple numbers game.
Wall Street tells us that you can’t time the market’s turning points and that it’s a waste of time. Of course they tell us that. If the average person could time the market’s turning points no one would need Wall Street. I would argue that the average person can time the market’s turning points like we did with the NASDAQ. It’s not that we are always right and can pick every turning point in a market. With our rules however, I would argue that the average person can time the market’s turning points with a very high degree of accuracy.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.fxstreet.com/education/trading-strategies/lessons-from-the-pros/2015/03/24/