非趋势价格摆动指标（DPO）

我第一次发现非趋势价格摆动指标（DPO）是在Steven Achelis 所著的《技术分析A~Z》一书中。从那以后，我就一直很偏爱该指标。它将收盘价与前一天的移动平均线相比较，消除了比移动平均线长的周期的影响，从而将短期周期分离出来。

DPO的真正作用是识别长期趋势的转折点：

• 当DPO的低点越来越高——预示着中期价格趋势会向上发展。
• 当DPO的顶点降低——价格有可能向下反转。

交易信号

首先你要评估出自己要交易的最大周期。该周期的一半用作移动平均线周期。DOP指标在周期小于21日时表现最好。

市场调整期

通过观察以前的价格走势，设置超买和超卖区域。

• 当DPO指标自下而上穿过超卖区域时做多。
• 当DPO从超买区下降的时候做空。

所有交易都要设置止损。

市场处于趋势中

跟随市场的方向交易。

• DPO下降到零以下并再次折回的时候做多。
• DPO上升到零之上并再次下降到零之下的时候做空。
只有当价格始终在MA一侧的时候交易。利用趋势指标确定离场位置。

利用止损保护你的仓位。

另外一种（更激进）原则：

• DPO的低点较前一低点有所升高时，做多。
• DPO的高点较前一高点降低时，做空。

始终要跟随趋势交易，并设置止损。

示例：

IBM 公司股价以及  7 日DPO、  21 日移动平均线(MA)。DPO被用来识别短期趋势，而MA作为趋势过滤器，可以识别和退出趋势交易。

 
1. 调整期——价格围绕MA波动。[S] 处做空：DPO重新回到  超买区域之下。
2. [L] 处做多：DPO价格从  超卖区域折回。
3. [S] 处做空。
4. [L] 处做多。
5. 价格突破交易区间——DPO曲线摆动剧烈。趋势信号产生。
6. 长期趋势快速的上升，但是DPO隔离出了短期趋势。形成一个较低的顶点。激进的交易者会在这时退出交易。
7. DPO重新上升到零之上，预示着一个很好的趋势入场点。上升趋势没有动摇——收盘价始终位于MA之上。激进的投资者会在这时进场：DPO形成了一个更高的低点。
8.  [X] 处价格收于MA下方，平仓。

计算公式

1. 决定你要分析的时间周期。该周期的一半时间设置为n。
2. 计算出n日的简单移动平均数。
3. 计算    (n / 2 + 1)
4. 从收盘价减去(n / 2 + 1)的简单移动平均数。
DPO=收盘价- (n / 2 + 1) 简单移动平均数

Detrended Price Oscillator
I first discovered the Detrended Price Oscillator in Steven Achelis'Technical Analysis A-Z. Since then it has become a firm favorite. Used to isolate short-term cycles, Detrended Price Oscillator compares closing price to a prior moving average, eliminating cycles longer than the moving average.
The real power of the Detrended Price Oscillator is in identifying turning points in longer cycles:
• When Detrended Price Oscillator shows a higher trough - expect an upturn in the intermediate cycle;
• When Detrended Price Oscillator experiences a lower peak - expect a downturn.
Trading Signals
First, estimate the maximum length of the cycle that you wish to track. Use half of the cycle length as the MAperiod. The Detrended Price Oscillator is most effective with indicator periods of 21 days or less.
Ranging Markets
Set overbought and oversold levels based on observation of past price behavior.
• Go long when Detrended Price Oscillator crosses below and then back above the oversold level.
• Go short when Detrended Price Oscillator crosses above and then back below the overbought level.
Use stop-losses at all times.
Trending Markets
Only trade in the direction of the trend.
• Go long when Detrended Price Oscillator crosses below zero and then turns back above.
• Go short when Detrended Price Oscillator crosses above zero and then turns back below.
Only execute trades if the trend is intact (price does not close below the MA). Exit using a trend indicator.
Use stop-losses to protect your position.
Alternative (and more aggressive) rules:
• Go long when Detrended Price Oscillator forms a higher trough.
• Go short when Detrended Price Oscillator forms a lower peak.
Trade only in the direction of the trend and always use stop losses.
 
EXAMPLE
IBM Corp. with    7 day Detrended Price Oscillator, and    21 day exponential moving average (MA). The Detrended Price Oscillator is used for analyzing the short cycle and the moving average is used to identify and exit trends (with closing price as a filter).
1. Price is ranging - indicated by the fluctuation around the MA. Go short [S] when Detrended Price Oscillator turns back below the   overbought level.
2. Go long [L] when the Detrended Price Oscillator turns back above the   oversold level.
3. Go short [S].
4. Go long [L].
5. Price breaks out of the trading range - confirmed by the larger Detrended Price Oscillator swing. Switch to trend signals.
6. Note how the long trend rises steeply but the Detrended Price Oscillator isolates the short cycle, forming a lower peak. More aggressive traders (see alternative rules) will exit at this point.
7. Detrended Price Oscillator crosses back to above the zero line, indicating a useful trend entry point. The up-trend remains intact - there are no closes below the MA. More aggressive traders (alternative rules) would re-enter their position at this point: Detrended Price Oscillator has formed a higher trough.
8. Exit when price closes below the MA at [X].
Setup
The default indicator window is set at 20 days. To alter the default settings - Edit Indicator Settings.
See Indicator Panel for directions on how to set up an indicator.
Formula
To calculate the Detrended Price Oscillator:
1. Decide on the time frame that you wish to analyze. Set n as half of that cycle period.
2. Calculate a simple moving average for n periods.
3. Calculate    (n / 2 + 1)
4. Subtract the moving average, from (n / 2 + 1) days ago, from the closing price:

           DPO = Close - Simple moving average [from (n / 2 + 1) days ago]

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

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