美联储14日演讲的底线是什么？
美联储专家表示，主席保留了年底加息的可能性，因为他要在年底对英国退欧给美国带来的冲击进行评估。
德意志银行首席经济学家 Joe LaVorgna 表示：“如果年底的数据如其所料，他们便会加息。他们打算加息，但是加两次很难，加一次倒是可行。”
上周五发布的六月就业数据表现强势，CME 的美联储观察工具随后发布了报告，认为十二月加息的可能性高达40%。此前的报告显示，加息的可能性仅有12%。年内还有四次美联储政策会议，分别在7月26日-27日，9月20日-21日，11月1日-2日，12月13日-14日。美联储主席耶伦计划在九月和十二月召开新闻发布会。
分析家们认为，七月的会议不可能决定加息。华尔街日报近来的投票结果显示，只有四分之一的经济学家认为加息会在九月进行。十一月加息也是没有可能的，因为十一月的会议距离总统选举仅余6天。
蒙特利尔银行资本市场的高级经济学家 Sal Guatieri 表示：“我们的目标是非常平缓的，我们希望在今年年底加息。”
很多美联储专家都十分支持亚特兰大联储主席洛克哈特的观点。这位曾经的银行家在刺耳声弥漫的委员会中显得尤为平和，他被视为鸽派的代表。
洛克哈特在爱达荷的演讲中表示，英国的退欧公投给美国的经济前景蒙上了一片阴云，公投的冲击会源源不断地向美国袭来。
Guatieri 说：“洛克哈特强调美联储仍会保有耐心。”
LaVorgna 指出，洛克哈特对美联储加息的预期正在逐渐减少，计息的次数已从年内三至四次变为一次或两次。
少数人对美联储的前景发表了不同意见。
Marvin Goodfriend 曾为美联储官员，现任卡耐基梅隆大学的经济学教授，他在彭博社发表了观点，十分担心通胀率的增长。他十分欢迎美联储在七月加息，但他知道这是不可能的。
另一边，加拿大皇家资本市场高级美国经济学家 Jacob Oubina 认为美联储会搁置加息计划，直至2017年6月。
Jacob Oubina 表示，英国退欧的风波以及美国、法国的总统选举，都会对欧元区产生重大影响，湖面将不复平静。
Flood of Fed speeches point to December interest-rate hike
What was the bottom line of the 14 Federal Reserve speeches this week?
Fed experts said that the central bankers kept the flame alive for a possible interest-rate hike at the end of the year but want to wait until then to assess the impact of the Brexit referendum on the U.S. economy.
“They’re buying the option to raise rates this year if the data unfold the way they anticipate,” said Joe LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank.
“Their hope and intention is to raise rates. Two seems difficult, one is feasible,” LaVorgna said.
In the wake of the strong June jobs report from last Friday, investors are now pricing in a 40% chance of a rate hike in December, according to the CME’s Fed Watch tool. This is up from only 12% before the report.
The Fed policy meeting has four meetings remaining this year: July 26-27, Sept. 20-21, Nov. 1-2 and Dec. 13-14. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen is scheduled to hold news conferences in September and December.
Analysts see no probability of a Fed rate hike at the meeting in 11 days. Only a quarter of economists see a rate hike in September, according to a recent poll by The Wall Street Journal. And a November move is seen as unlikely as the meeting is six days before the presidential election.
“Our call is still super-gradual, one move at the end of the year,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Several Fed experts said they gave the most weight to comments by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart. The former banker is seen as a moderate in a committee with strident hawks and doves.
In a speech in Idaho, Lockhart, an avid fly fisherman, said the vote by Britain to leave the European Union has clouded the U.S. economic outlook and there might be persistent headwinds from the vote.
“Lockhart reinforced the Fed can remain quite patient,” Guatieri said.
LaVorgna noted that Lockhart has steadily reduced his forecast for Fed rate increases this year from four to three and now to “one or possibly two.”
There are minority opinions about the outlook for Fed policy.
Marvin Goodfriend, a former Fed officials and now a professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University, said in an interview with Bloomberg he is worried about a spike of inflation. He said he would welcome a Fed rate hike in July although he doesn’t expect one.
On the other side, Jacob Oubina, senior U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets, sees the Fed on hold until June 2017.
“That is the first shot of calm waters,” given the potential Brexit spillovers, the coming U.S. presidential election and elections in France that could impact the eurozone, Oubina said.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
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