Neuberger Berman  2016年7月15日

从日本开始，货币政策可能需要进入下一个级别。

在对英国退欧公投两周的消化中，我发现了一些市场反弹的关键因素。

在公投后的前三天中出现大量抛售，之后出现许多风险资产的反弹。但是新闻中把这一现象当成经济反弹，我觉得还是有一点诱导成份。

一种看法是英国退出欧盟带来的好处需要很长时间才能实现，而且在我看来重要的反弹还非常有限。另一个看法是议会和首相可能没有真正执行退欧，投票人可能不知道什么是至关重要的。考虑到参与投票的重大基数和投票胜利系数，我相信这样的想法不能成立。不管好坏，英国推出欧盟是真实的。

在我看来对市场反弹更重要是看央行们的反应。英格兰银行宣布鼓励银行在低存款准备金率时期放贷，欧洲央行主席Mario Draghi多次做出确定支持政策的讲话，美联储加强了非美国条件对其政策的影响。

因此投资者感觉这将代理积极的影响，这非常好。

但是我认为最重要的是了解投票驱动因素本身对全球产生的深远影响。特别是对贸易和移民的影响，这对西方国家民众非常重要，因为他们长期受到经济低增长和就业率低的严重影响。

在我看来，解雇欧洲和美国的英国雇员将是一个错误。事实上，找到一个好工作非常困难，尤其是那些不熟练工人和年轻人，而人们把这一现象的罪魁祸首归咎于移民和贸易。事实是造成这一现象的许多原因是无形的，例如低效率的税务法案、过度的管理和单一的人口结构。

日本的出口政策会出现革新吗？

那么更大的问题就出现了，怎样实现经济更好的增长呢？不幸的是，尽管央行能提供一些支持，目前他们还不能自己解决经济增长的问题。事实上，美联储前主席伯南克在五年前就指出过货币政策的局限性，而且一些主要重要银行不愿意实行消极政策利率刺激经济增长，他们能采用的政策就变得更少。

在英国退欧公投之后，我的同事 Joe Amato、Erik Knutzen与 Global Equity团队主管Benjamin Sega参加了一个网络研讨会，在其中他们讨论了怎样做才能打破现在的经济僵局。Erik在期间表示一个需要重点观察的市场就是日本。

日元的大幅上涨是公投的许多主要影响之一。长久以来日元一直被视为避险货币，因此其最近上涨到2014年以来的高点可能会破坏安培经济政策的发展。

由于出现这一不利因素，我们认为日本可能会成为第一个推出下一阶段货币政策的国家，他们的政策可能是“直升机洒钱”，这是Milton Friedman创造出来的概念，用于描述央行不依赖银行的间接刺激，而是直接将钱放到消费者手中。

当然，央行不能独自完成这一政策的实施。它需要政府和立法机构的配合。这将使任务更加困难，但是它也能让政府和经济转向结构化改革。这可能包括通过简化税法、减少或者简化管理增加经济效率，这对经济健康增长至关重要。

如果日本成功，可以鼓励其他地区展开行动。那些被夸大的风险反过来可能成为一个全球经济复苏漫长旅程中的转折点。

Will Central Banks Look to New Tools?

By Neuberger Berman | Updated July 15, 2016 — 1:00 PM EDT

Starting in Japan, monetary policy may need to go to the next level.

With a couple weeks to digest the Brexit vote, I see some key takeaways tied to the market rebound.

There was a substantial selloff for the three days after the vote, and then (leaving aside more durable currency effects) a meaningful, if uneven, resurgence for many risk assets. But headlines regarding the bounce have been, I think, a bit misleading.

One notion is that the gains were driven by the fact that separation will take considerable time to implement—but this was known the day of the Brexit vote and seems to me of limited importance to the bounce-back. Another is that the parliament and prime minister may not have to follow through on Brexit at all, that voters “may not have known” what was at stake. Given the sizable turnout and wide margin of victory, I believe the idea of such a turnabout has been debunked. Brexit is real, for better or worse.

More significant for the rebound, in my view, was the response by central banks: The Bank of England announced that it would encourage bank lending through lower reserve requirements; ECB Chair Mario Draghi made reassuring comments about supportive policy; and Federal Reserve minutes reinforced the importance of non-U.S. conditions to its policies.

So investors felt better, which is great.

But I think it’s crucial to understand some key drivers of the vote itself that have far-reaching, global implications. In particular, I’m talking about the issues of trade and immigration, which have become lightning rods for voters, across Western economies, who are frustrated by subpar growth and the lack of opportunity and jobs it has engendered.

In my view, it would be a mistake to dismiss "Leave" voters and their counterparts on the Continent and in the U.S. as being narrow-minded or lacking global perspective. In fact, it is hard to find a good job, especially for the less skilled and the young, and people have latched onto what they perceive to be the most tangible culprits, namely immigration and trade. The reality is that many of the culprits are less tangible, such as inefficient tax codes, excessive regulation and simple demographics.

Could Japan Export Policy Innovation?

So the bigger picture issue becomes, how can you deliver better growth? Unfortunately, although central banks can provide some support, at the end of the day they can’t address the growth issue on their own. Indeed, then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke was talking about the limits of monetary policy some five years ago, and with major central banks appropriately reluctant to aggressively pursue negative policy rates to spur growth, there are fewer policy options at their disposal.

After the Brexit vote, my CIO colleagues Joe Amato and Erik Knutzen, along with Benjamin Segal, head of the Global Equity team, participated in a webinar in which they discussed what could be done to break the economic logjam. One key market to watch, Erik said, was Japan.

The sharp rise in the Japanese yen is one of the more challenging effects of the referendum vote. The yen has long been viewed as safe-haven currency, and thus recently reached highs not seen since 2014, threatening to undermine progress made via Abenomics.

Given the bleak picture, we think it’s possible that Japan could be the first country to introduce the next stage of the Bernanke playbook, which is “helicopter money”—a term first coined by Milton Friedman to describe central bank policy that, instead of relying on indirect stimulus through banks, put dollars directly in the hands of consumers.

A central bank cannot implement such a policy on its own, of course. It needs the cooperation of executive branch heads and legislatures. This makes the task more challenging, but it also has the advantage of moving governments and economies toward structural reform. This could include increasing economic efficiency by simplifying tax codes, and reducing or streamlining regulation—which are key impediments to healthy growth.

Success in Japan could encourage action elsewhere. At the risk of overstatement, that in turn could prove a turning point in what has become a very long journey toward meaningful global recovery.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/partner/neuberger-berman/articles/markets/071516/will-central-banks-look-new-tools.asp