Russ Koesterich 2015年8月21日
上周是对股票来说的另一个艰难时期，特点是由于中国货币意外贬值产生的上周中期的剧烈抛售。对于许多投资者来说，这一现象增强了对这个世界第二大经济体增长前景的担忧。尽管美国股市仍有弹性，其他市场却面临巨大压力。欧洲股市在中国货币贬值和欧元升值使出口商损失惨重的时候尤为艰难。
而且还传传出了使人们担心另一趋势的消息：美国通胀率急剧下降。通胀率太小和太大是一样危险的，通胀率预期减小可能预示未来经济增长放缓。
也就像我在一周评论里说的：“缓慢增长和没有增长有巨大的区别，因此把上周事件放到整体环境考虑非常重要。”
人民币的意外贬值
我不认为中国的举动会有那样可怕的影响，由于新兴市场的支援减少，这更可能使全球经济放缓。
这需要从货币相对强势的背景下考虑：人民币是少数过去五年对美元升值的货币之一。如此看来，这一举动可以看成是向市场决定汇率的转移和更广泛的金融自由化。此外，在中期内，它将给经济一些温和的刺激。
通胀预期下降
尽管通胀预期剧烈下降和出现另一个美国经济增长低于趋势的信号，我不认为会出现通货紧缩。上周出现了更多的关于美国经济将会在下半年温和增长的信号，尽管不太可能大幅度增加。零售、工业生产和生产价值的报告都是坚实的。
最后，最近大多数通货膨胀预期的下降是由大宗商品下降造成的，尤其是原油。上周，所有的新闻头条都在关注石油交易价格下降到6年半以来的最低点。然而，产生这一现象的原因是供大于求，这是由美国钻井数量的平稳增长和产量增加导致的。
至于对投资者来说这意味着什么，这有一个关键的导读：这将给金融市场带来巨大的波动性。
根据Bloomberg的数据，在上周的顶峰， 测量标准普尔500指数的VIX指数，从前一周的低点上升了50%。虽然波动性还是低于长期平均水平，过去几年低波动性的形势与增长缓慢、不稳定的通胀预期的和美元年底即将进行加息的情况不符。
Signs of a Struggling Economy?
By Russ Koesterich | Updated August 21, 2015
Last week was another difficult one for stocks, marked by a bruising mid-week selloff triggered by China’s surprise devaluation of its currency. For many investors, the move reinforced fears about the growth prospects of the world’s second-largest economy. Though U.S. equities remained resilient, other markets came under pressure. European equities in particular struggled as the fall in China’s currency and the appreciation of the euro hit exporters especially hard.
It also did not help that the news came on the back of another worrisome trend: an accelerating decline in U.S. inflation expectations. Too little inflation can be just as perilous as too much, as a decline in inflation expectations can indicate slower growth ahead.
That said, as I write in my new weekly commentary, “The Scene Is Set for Higher Volatility,” there is a big difference between slow growth and no growth, so it’s important to put last week’s events in context.
China’s surprise devaluation.
While I don’t believe China’s move has the dire repercussions some have suggested, it does fit within the broader narrative of a slowing global economy, with less support from emerging markets.
But it needs to be viewed in the context of the currency’s relative strength: The yuan was one of few currencies to have appreciated against the dollar over the past five years. In that light, the move can be viewed as part of a shift toward a market-determined exchange rate and broader financial liberalization. In addition, over the intermediate term, it should provide some modest stimulus to that economy.
Declining inflation expectations.
Despite the slump in inflation expectations and other signs that U.S. growth remains below trend, I don’t view deflation as a real risk. Last week brought more evidence that U.S. economic growth should be modestly higher in the second half of the year, although it’s unlikely to surge. Reports on retail sales, industrial production and producer prices were all solid.
Finally, much of the recent drop in inflation expectations is being driven by lower commodity prices, particularly oil. Last week, headlines were focused on oil trading down to a six-and-a-half-year low. However, this had more to do with supply than demand and was mostly a U.S. phenomenon, driven by the recent stabilization in the U.S. rig count as well the fact that production has remained resilient, despite the pullback in drilling activity.
As for what this means for investors, there’s one key takeaway: the ingredients are in place for more financial market volatility.
At its peak last week, the VIX Index, which measures volatility of the S&P 500 Index, was up 50 percent from the previous week’s low, according to Bloomberg data. Yet volatility is still below its long-term average, and the low-volatility climate of the past few years is incompatible with a world marked by slow growth, unstable inflation expectations and a likely Federal Reserve rate hike before year’s end.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
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