油价震荡 市场仍呈上升趋势

亚洲交易时间周二早间，油价略有回升，交易员和投资者们一夜的投资推动了油价的上涨。

在纽约商品交易所，九月交付的轻质低硫原油的成交价为每桶45.48美元，较上一交易日下跌了0.6%。在伦敦洲际交易所，十月交付的布伦特原油成交价为每桶48.07美元，下跌了0.6%。

市场对石油输出国组织冻产计划的预期在持续升温，这为油价提供了一定的支撑。在两大石油制造巨头——沙特和俄罗斯表现出了对冻产计划的支持后，牛市的情绪进一步加深了。

但很多分析家提出了反对意见，他们认为当前的石油生产速度已经达到了极致，冻产计划很难对市场产生实质性的影响。还有一些分析家还提出了阴谋论，鉴于个别成员曾经的表现，OPEC可能会伪造一份协议。

OptionsXpress 大宗商品分析家Aaron Lynch指出：“沙特表明态度是值得庆贺的，但是这种论调我们已经听过了无数遍。”

冻产计划最早出现在二月，当时卡塔尔、俄罗斯、沙特及委内瑞拉这四大原油制造商同意达成有条件的协议，将产量维持在一月的水平。会议是在美国原油价格跌至26.05美元的几天后召开的，这一油价创下了十三年的最低记录，已经超出了石油巨头们的底线。

但是这项协议始终没有达成，因为伊朗拒绝参与协议，沙特也在两个月后改变了态度。

油价在二月份上涨了75%，但较2014年顶峰时期的100多美元相比仍是相去甚远。

一些分析家仍然相信，不断加剧的供应过剩会削弱石油巨头的金库，所以达成协议仍有希望。

山东SCI国际集团能源分析家高健指出：“很多石油制造商都处于马力全开的状态，他们几乎没有继续提升的空间了，所以他们极有可能同意冻产计划。”

而委内瑞拉、利比亚等小型制造商则会举手欢迎，因为冻结产量的直接结果就是油价上升，这会为石油板块吸引到更多的投资。

OPEC月报显示，委内瑞拉七月的石油产量为每天210万桶，环比减少20%。利比亚每日生产30.4万桶，环比下降21%。

短期来讲，市场会密切关注美国能源信息署在周三发布的美国原油库存数据。普氏的全球调查显示，上周美国原油库存减少了20万桶，汽油库存则减少了180万桶。

在纽约商品交易所，九月交付的新配方汽油合约的成交价为每加仑1.3948美元，下跌了59个点，九月交付的柴油则下跌了36个点，成交价为1.4463美元。

洲际交易所九月交付的汽油成交价为每吨423.5美元，较周一下跌了1美元。

Oil stumbles as investors cash in on gains, but sentiment still upbeat

Crude oil prices retreated slightly in Asia early Tuesday, as traders and investors cashed in on the strong rally overnight.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September CLU6, -0.52%  traded at $45.48 a barrel, down $0.26, or 0.6% in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude LCOV6, -0.56%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.28, or 0.6%, to $48.07 a barrel.

Growing expectations that members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would agree to a production freeze have supported prices since last week. The bullish sentiment was further heightened after the two largest oil producers — Saudi Arabia and Russia — indicated their support for such a limit.

Several analysts have, however, argued that a production cap at a time when producers are pumping at top speed would hardly take enough barrels off the market to make a material difference. Others have expressed skepticism that the 14-member bloc would be able to forge a consensus given the historical tension among some players.

“It is encouraging that Saudi Arabia has flagged its intention, but how many times have we heard the same rhetoric?” said Aaron Lynch, a commodities analyst at OptionsXpress.

The idea of a production freeze was pitched in February when four oil producers, namely Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, agreed to a conditional pact to freeze output at the January level. The meeting took place just days after U.S.-traded prices dipped to $26.05, a 13-year low, signalling prices had hit a bottom line for the heavyweight producers.

The pact was, however, never formalized after Saudi Arabia reversed its position two months later on Iran’s refusal to take part in the agreement.

Prices have risen around 75% since February, but are still sharply lower from the above-$100 level in mid-2014.

Still, some analysts believe that as the bulging global glut is starting to dent big producers’ coffers, the likelihood of a pact is quite likely.

“The fact that many oil producers are producing at full tilt makes it more likely they are more inclined to freeze in September because they have little spare capacity left to expand,” said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at the Shandong-based SCI International.

Smaller producers, such as Venezuela and Libya, will welcome the gesture because a production freeze should boost prices, and higher prices could entice more investment into their struggling oil sectors, he added.

Venezuela’s production in July fell 20% on-month to 2.1 million barrels a day, while Libya saw a 21% drop to 304,000 barrels a day, according to OPEC’s latest monthly report based on secondary sources.

For the short term, the market will be watching the weekly U.S. crude inventories data by the American Petroleum Institute later today and by the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. A S&P Global Platts survey estimates U.S. crude ebbed by 200,000 barrels last week, while gasoline stocks reduced by 1.8 million barrels.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for September RBU6, -0.36%  — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 59 points to $1.3948 a gallon, while September diesel traded at $1.4463, 36 points lower.

ICE gas oil for September changed hands at $423.50 a metric ton, up $1.00 from Monday’s settlement.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-stumbles-as-investors-cash-in-on-gains-but-sentiment-still-upbeat-2016-08-16