美国原油库存增加 油价继续下跌

亚洲交易时间周四早间，美国原油库存量再度增加，沙特原油产出创历史新高，原油价格也因此下跌。

上述两个因素足以说明，虽然多地供应中断，美国石油产量稳步减少，但全球仍处于供大于求的状态。

在纽约商品交易所，九月交付的轻质低硫原油期货的成交价为每桶41.5美元，下跌了0.5%。在伦敦洲际交易所，十月交付的布伦特原油价格为每桶43.83美元，下跌了0.5%。

美国能源信息署发布了截至8月5日的当周库存数据，新增的106万桶原油库存使得油价一夜间骤跌。原油总库存为5.236亿桶，比去年同期的五年平均数据高出37%。

该数据表明美国市场供应过剩的情况正在加剧，因此利润空间减少，原油需求降低。炼油厂使用率的同期数据降低了1.1%。

普氏能源分析中心的能源分析经理Anthony Starkey认为：“秋季的维修在即，炼油厂的开工率正在逐渐降低。”

此外，油价还受到《石油输出国组织月度报告》的影响。报告指出，沙特阿拉伯上个月的石油产量为每天1067万桶，而同期OPEC的日均输出总量为3310万桶。

夏天是沙特电力需求的高峰期，因此会增加原油产量来满足制冷需求。但OPEC数据显示，沙特的石油需要较去年同期有所下降，这说明沙特将更多的产量用于对外出口。

产量的增长说明OPEC的主要成员都以占据市场份额为第一优先原则，且坚信低油价会摧毁非OPEC成员的高成本制造商，如：美国制造商。

OPEC成员计划下个月在阿尔及利亚召开非正式会议。但是在长期的油价混乱中，增加产量意味着石油大亨们对冻产计划不感兴趣。

即使他们达成了冻产计划，也不会对全球供应及油价产生影响，因为还有很多制造商在高速炼油。

花旗期货分析家Tim Evans表示，没有沙特的支持，冻产计划很难成行。在四月初冻产计划刚刚萌芽时，沙特曾表示支持，但却在最后一刻改变了态度，因为伊朗拒绝控制石油产量。

限制产量虽会像第一季度那样起到一时的作用，但这个计划真的很难达成，执行起来也会困难重重。

交易员和分析家们会密切追踪国际能源机构发布的月报。

在纽约商品交易所，九月交付的新配方汽油合约的成交价为每加仑1.2959美元，下跌了55个点。而九月交付的柴油则下跌了65个点，成交价为1.3119美元。洲际交易所九月交付的汽油合约价格为每吨2.5美元，下跌了0.6%。

Oil extends losses after U.S. stockpile growth, record Saudi output

Crude-oil prices dropped more in early Asia trade Thursday, weighed down by the continuous growth in U.S. crude stocks and the record-high output by Saudi Arabia.

The combination of the two factors signals that, despite the multiple supply disruptions and the steady decline seen in U.S. production in recent months, the world is still very much oversupplied.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September CLU6, -0.17%  traded at $41.50 a barrel, down $0.22, or 0.5%, in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude LCOV6, -0.16%  on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.22, or 0.5%, to $43.83 a barrel.

Oil prices fell overnight after the Energy Information Administration data showed a 1.06 million-barrel increase in U.S. crude inventories in the week ended August 5, pushing total stocks to 523.6 million barrels and 37.7% above the five-year average for the same time last year, said analysts at S&P Global Platts.

The build reflects the growing glut of refined products in the U.S. market, which has led to lower margin and reduced demand for crude. Refinery-use rate fell 1.1% in the same week.

“The already slowing refinery runs and resultant builds in crude inventories is a precursor to what is expected in the fall when refiners enter maintenance,” said Anthony Starkey, energy analysis mangers at Platts Analytics’ Bentek Energy.

Prices were also hit by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries monthly report that indicated Saudi Arabia produced at a record-high rate last month by churning out 10.67 million barrels a day. Total OPEC daily production rose to 33.1 million barrels in the same month.

Saudi Arabia usually ramps up crude production during the summer to meet peak domestic demand for electricity for cooling purpose. However, OPEC’s report showed that the kingdom’s local demand in June decreased compared with a year earlier, suggesting the country had sent production higher in part to increase exports.

The upward trend also suggests that major cartel members are making maintaining market shares their priority and holding on to the tactic that lower oil prices will drive away non-OPEC high-cost producers, such as the U.S. frackers.

Increased production amid a persistent price rout suggests the heavyweights inside the group won’t be keen on a collective production freeze when they meet at an informal gathering next month on the sidelines of an energy conference in Algeria.

Even if a freeze pact is forged, it would make little difference to global supply and prices because many producers are pumping at top speed, analysts say.

Moreover, without the full backing of Saudi Arabia and its closest allies, the deal would never come to fruition, said Tim Evans, a Citi Futures analyst. Saudi Arabia was a supporter of a production freeze when the proposal was first floated in April. But the kingdom had a last-minute change of heart when Iran refused to curb its output.

“The talk of limiting output may support the market for a time, much as it did in the first quarter of the year. But a deal seems pretty unlikely and enforcement problematic at any case,” he added.

Traders and analysts will be closely eyeing the monthly report by the International Energy Agency, slated for release today.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for September RBU6, -0.03%  — the benchmark gasoline contract — fell 55 points to $1.2959 a gallon, while September diesel traded at $1.3119, 65 points lower. ICE gasoil for September contract was down $2.50 or 0.6% to $383.75 a metric ton.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-extends-losses-after-us-stockpile-growth-record-saudi-output-2016-08-11