美国原油数据发布在即 油价上扬后回落

亚洲交易时间周二早间，原油价格在一夜的上扬之后迅速回落。油价上涨是因为世界石油联盟可能在九月重新召开冻产会议，而随后的油价下跌则属于见利抛售行为。

在纽约商品交易所，九月交付的轻质低硫原油期货的成交价为每桶42.66美元，较上个交易日下跌了0.36美元。在伦敦洲际交易所，十月交付的布伦特原油期货为每桶44.99美元，下跌了0.4美元。

OPEC成员国卡特尔的能源部长默罕默德·萨利赫萨达在周一表示，十四国集团将在9月26日-28日召开非正式会议，会议地点为阿尔及利亚国际能源论坛。

萨达对原油市场十分看好，他认为2016年下半年的石油需求会很强势，而全球石油供应却会减少。

对2016年下半年原油需求预期的增加以及可行性的降低，让分析家得出这样的结论——他们认为熊市只是暂时的，油价会在年末继续上涨。

冻产计划最早出现在四月的多哈会议上，多个OPEC成员国想要重议此事。与此同时，沙特阿拉伯却认为市场力量会重塑供需平衡状态。伊朗也对冻产计划表示反对，并表示会继续生产原油直至恢复到制裁前的水平。

现如今，伊朗的产量已经攀升至每天360万桶，比一月核限制时期的产量高出了近60万桶。这样下去不久就能达到每天400万桶至420万桶，这是伊朗官员可以接受的冻产产量。

某些分析家认为油价陷入困境已有两年，如今连召开会议的消息都能给投资者带来信心，让他们忘记低迷的中国七月原油进口量——六个月以来的最低进口量。

花旗银行能源期货分析家Tim Evans说道：“市场愿意把这种情况视为牛市的前兆，但这回他们可能要失算了。但我们不得不承认，如果得不到沙特的认同，冻产计划的所有努力都是白搭。”

怀疑主义者认为这次会议不会有什么实质性的结果，因为这些成员在过去几个月油价极低的时期明明可以减产，却都没这样做。

澳大利亚联邦银行大宗商品策略师Vivek Dhar指出：“他们不过是在纸上谈兵。”

近期市场将会追踪美国汽油和原油库存的最新数据，普氏能源的分析家认为，二者的库存量在上周预计减少了160万桶和175万桶。

上周的数据比2011年至2015年间的平均库存减幅240万桶少了27%。原油库存比过去五年的平均水平高出了36.6%。

美国能源信息署的官方数据将在周三发布。

在纽约商品交易所，九月交付的新配方汽油合约的成交价为每加仑1.3563美元，下跌了57个点。而九月交付的柴油价格则为1.3377美元，下跌了59个点。

Oil prices walk back from sharp rally with focus on U.S. data

Crude oil prices edged down Tuesday morning in Asia on profit-taking after a sharp rally overnight as investors were emboldened by the possibility that the world’s oil cartel may reconsider a production freeze at a meeting in late September.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September CLU6, -0.63%  traded at $42.66 a barrel, down $0.36, or 0.8%, in the Globex electronic session. October Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.40, or 0.9%, to $44.99 a barrel.

Qatar’s energy minister, Mohammed bin Saleh al Sada, the president of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, said Monday the 14-member group will hold an informal meeting Sept. 26-28 at the International Energy Forum in Algeria.

Read: Oil market déjà vu sets in as OPEC plans ‘informal’ meeting

Sada sounded a positive note about the crude-oil market, saying demand was expected to be strong in the second half of 2016, while the global petroleum supply would weaken.

Expectations for higher crude demand in the second half of 2016, coupled with a decrease in availability, are leading analysts to conclude the current bear market is only temporary, and oil prices will rise later in the year, he said.

Several OPEC members want to revive the idea of setting new limits on production — a subject raised but quashed in April when cartel members met in Doha. At the time, Saudi Arabia said market forces were helping to reset supply and demand back toward a rebalance. Iran also rejected the idea, saying it would continue to produce until it reaches the pre-sanction level.

Now, Iran’s production has crept back up to 3.6 million barrels a day, almost 600,000 barrels a day higher since world powers lifted economic restrictions over the country’s nuclear program in January. That brings production to within reach of 4 million-4.2 million barrels a day that Iranian officials said they would require before agreeing to a freeze.

Some analysts say that with prices in the doldrums for two years, just the suggestion of talks was enough for investors to shrug off disappointing China crude imports in July, China’s imports plunged to the lowest level in six months.

“The market seems willing enough to take this as a bullish development and perhaps this time will be different,” said Citi energy futures analyst Tim Evans. “But we note that without the support of Saudi Arabia all prior efforts at a production freeze amounted to nothing.”

Skeptics fear the meeting won’t result in any concrete actions, as these members could have reduced production when prices were lower in the past months, but chose not to.

“They talk more than they do,” said Vivek Dhar, commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

In the near term, the market will be monitoring movements of U.S. gasoline and crude stocks movements, which likely shrunk last week by 1.6 million barrels and 1.75 million barrels, respectively, according to a survey of analysts by S&P Global Platts.

Such a decline in crude would be 27% short of the average 2.4-million barrel drop seen during this period during 2011-2015. Crude oil stocks were 36.6% above the five-year average through the last reporting period.

Official data from the Energy Information Administration will be released Wednesday.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for September RBU6, -0.54% — the benchmark gasoline contract--fell 57 points to $1.3563 a gallon, while September diesel traded at $1.3377, 59 points lower.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-walk-back-from-sharp-rally-with-focus-on-us-data-2016-08-09