Thom Tracy  2016年6月23日

在支持留在欧盟的英国议员 Jo Cox被枪杀使英国退欧的可能性降低之后，全球股市在2016年6月20日经历了巨大的单日涨幅。尽管如此，爱尔兰立法者还是评估了英国退出欧洲对爱尔兰经济的影响，因为爱尔兰和她东边的这个邻居在贸易和劳动力上有非常严重的互相依赖。

二战结束不久之后建立的欧盟是一个包含28个国家的经济和政治团体，其中19个国家把欧元当作统一货币。虽然2015年爱尔兰的进口和国内支出增加使其国内生产总值（GDP）增长了7.8%，英国退出欧盟将将对爱尔兰产生巨大影响。欧元疲软促进了美国在爱尔兰的药物和技术的投资和爱尔兰的出口，帮助了GDP增长。但是GDP的真正增长很难实现，因为该国大部分财富是以股东利润的形式产生的。

贸易影响

出口到英国的货物占爱尔兰总出口量的三分之一。英国退欧可能使其与欧洲邻居之间的关税增加，使出口更加昂贵。随之而来的影响将是爱尔兰对英国出口的产品和服务减少，使爱尔兰不得不降低对向英国出口的依赖。英国退欧也可能使英国经济增长放缓，这同样会影响爱尔兰经济。受欧盟和英国重新建立贸易协议的影响，预计英国从爱尔兰的进口量将下降21.6%，出口也将下降3.3%。

劳动力影响

爱尔兰和英国之间的劳动力出口很大程度上决定了经济的健康程度。在2011到2013年间，随着爱尔兰国内的失业率上涨，大约有6万的爱尔兰公民到英国工作。共同旅游区的建立使爱尔兰劳动力流入英国，这个政策可能因为英国退出欧盟而被终止。两国之间劳动力自由流动的限制将会给爱尔兰工资增长带来压力，因为将会有更多的人竞争更少的职位。据预测熟练工人工资将下降5%，非熟练工人工资将下降4%。超过40万爱尔兰人居住在英国，英国退欧将可能因为劳动力自由流动的关闭对这些人进行大规模遣返。

外国投资影响

英国的外国直接投资可能在重组的企业所得税投入使用后增加，这是英国退欧的好处之一。据预计英国境内的外国公司投资将增加9.7%。然而，企业在考虑建立分公司时不仅仅考虑企业税务。爱尔兰当前对外国投资的吸引力与英国类似，取决于其教育的质量和市场的效率。英国退欧对爱尔兰吸引外国投资的影响可能不会很大，因为爱尔兰当前维持了很高的跨国公司投资水平。持续改善的爱尔兰基础设施和金融市场将会增加其对跨国公司的吸引力，从而最大化的减小与其经济息息相关的英国退出欧盟的负面影响。

 How Brexit Would Impact Ireland’s Economy

 By Thom Tracy | June 23, 2016 — 3:29 PM EDT

Global stocks enjoyed significant one-day gains on June 20, 2016, as the United Kingdom’s departure from the European Union (EU) appeared less likely after the murder of pro-EU British legislator Jo Cox prompted parties on both sides of the issue to suspend crusades. Nonetheless, Irish policymakers examine the economic impact of a British exit, or Brexit, as the emerald isle maintains a healthy trade and labor interdependence with its neighbor to the east.

The EU, formed shortly after World War ll, is a cooperative economic and political unit that contains 28 nations, 19 of which adopted the euro as its common currency. The United Kingdom’s potential withdrawal from EU membership holds broad implications for the developing nation, as Ireland saw rising imports and domestic spending boost its gross domestic product (GDP) by 7.8% in 2015. Ireland’s embrace of U.S. drug and technology company investment, along with exports bolstered by a weakened euro, aided in its rapid growth. The true measure of expansion is difficult to assess, however, as much of the wealth generated exits the nation in the form of shareholder profit.

Trade Impact

Exports of goods to the United Kingdom account for nearly one-third of Ireland’s total output. Britain’s exit from the EU could trigger increased tariffs on trade with European neighbors, rendering imports more expensive. The subsequent reliance on domestic goods and services portend a marked decline in volume crossing the Irish Sea to the United Kingdom, considerably denting volume on which the Celtic tiger has come to rely. Slowed growth in Britain translates to contraction in Ireland as a Brexit increases the prospects for a U.K. economic downturn that could extend from Coleraine to Cork. Resulting from the creation of bilateral trade agreements between EU nations and the United Kingdom, a projected 21.6% decrease in British import volume expects to ripple across Ireland, whose exports to its neighbor are predicted to fall by 3.3% in turn.

Labor Impact

Economic health largely determines migratory movements of laborers between Ireland and the United Kingdom. Between 2011 and 2013, approximately 60,000 Irish citizens sought residence in the United Kingdom, as unemployment spikes forced laborers to seek employment elsewhere. The establishment of a common travel area enables the flow of Irish labor to the United Kingdom, a policy that might be curbed should the Brits terminate membership in the EU. The restriction of free movement between borders holds that the absence of a diaspora equal to that seen in previous years may exert pressure on Irish wages as more people compete for fewer jobs. Forecasts see a 5% drop in skilled laborers’ salaries and a 4% decline in earnings among unskilled workers. With over 400,000 Irish citizens residing in Britain, a Brexit puts forth the possibility of mass repatriation resulting from a shuttered market once freely accessed by Celtic labor.

Foreign Investment Impact

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United Kingdom is expected to increase in the wake of restructured corporate taxes, a perceived benefit of the nation’s separation from the EU. A proposed rate of 12.5% translates to a 9.7% increase in activity by foreign companies within British borders. However, companies consider factors beyond taxation when choosing locations in which to set up shop. Ireland’s current attractiveness to FDI, mirroring that of the United Kingdom, hinges on the quality of its education and efficiency of its markets. British separation from the EU is expected to have minimal effects on the draw of FDI in Ireland as the nation currently maintains a significant level of multinational activity. Continued improvements in Irish infrastructure and financial markets serve to increase its attractiveness to global companies, thereby minimizing any negative influence realized from the EU’s split with the United Kingdom, an economy with which the republic strongly correlates.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/062316/how-brexit-would-impact-irelands-economy.asp