Ryan Downie  2016年6月13日

太平洋投资管理公司（ PIMCO）预测中国2016年的GDP增长率在5.5%到6.5%之间。这一数据高于全球平均水平但是明显低于中国在过去十年中的增长率。由于需求不足和过剩的财务刺激引起的投资者不安，中国的房地产和资本市场在2014到2016年间经历了下跌和波动。PIMCO对中国2016年GDP增长率预测不高的原因是出自对房地产市场、主权债务增加、不良贷款增加、股市波动和政策伸展过度的担忧。

房地产市场

中国的房地产行业是其经济增长的重要影响因素，在2014年受国内投资的推动占GDP总量的15%以上。房地产行业的强劲表现推动其他行业的增长，例如建筑业和基础材料行业，因此住房和商业建筑需求增长的影响是巨大的。中国的房地产行业一直受到政府低利率和宽松贷款政策的大力支持。中国已经在许多地区出现了无人居住的鬼城，这使得人们出现了对供应过剩将威胁房地产行业和整体经济增长前景的担忧。

中国房价在2015年出现下降，但是2016年初一线城市房价又开始回升。二三线城市的房价下降还在持续。尽管数据显示房价的增长不受投机的驱动，但是一些分析人士认为中国房地产投资者资金来自股市流出。PIMCO认为二三线城市的不良表现和库存压力足以限制中国房地产行业的增长潜力。这将相对历史表现来说影响GDP的增长，因为房地产行业在中国经济中的地位非常重要。

债务

在2007到2015年间中国增加了21万亿美元的债务。债务和GPD比率从2006年32%增长到2015年的43.9%，而GDP增长率却从15.4%下降到6.7%。由于中国经济正处于周期性放缓中，政府支出成了GDP增长的重要组成部分，因此目前中国必须多承担15%的主权债务以实现其GDP增长目标。这还不足以对经济造成严重影响，但是政府影响的加大和边际收益的递减将限制经济上涨的潜力。

不良贷款

2015年中国银行的不良贷款增长超过了一倍，使不良贷款率达到了1.4%。PIMCO预测这一比率在短期内将继续增长，而且压力测试显示这一数字将会上涨到高达6%。如果想要改变不良贷款持续上涨的趋势，那么就需要对中国银行进行资本重组。不良贷款是一个长期问题，不会在近期对经济造成影响，但是会影响短期内的政策。这一挥之不去威胁会抑制对经济增长至关重要的投资行业。

股票市场

中国股票市场在2015年和2016年出现剧烈波动，而纠正政策往往效果不甚理想。股票市场波动往往对实体经济造成负面影响，因为它能影响投资者信心和消费者情绪。一些投资者可能会撤出资金，导致资本外逃，这将影响经济增长的潜力。低迷的消费者情绪可能会降低总体需求从而影响经济增长。为解决股市波动推出的不完善政策也会影响货币和限制企业投资。

政策效力

中国政府大量使用货币和财政政策解决资本市场缺陷，这使得其他措施的影响减小。货币贬值导致资本外流并使利率临近具有威胁性的阙值。财务刺激导致制造业和房地产行业供应过剩，但是却不能永久的推动企业和消费者需求。

Why PIMCO Says China's Growth Is Capped

By Ryan Downie | June 13, 2016 — 7:00 AM EDT

PIMCO's forecasts call for 5.5 to 6.5% growth in Chinese gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016. This figure is above the global average but substantially lower than China's performance over the preceding decade. China's real estate and capital markets experienced deceleration and volatility between 2014 and 2016, with concerns about insufficient demand and fiscal overstimulation causing investor discomfort. PIMCO's modest view for China's GDP growth in 2016 is limited to the upside by concerns over the real estate market, rising sovereign debt, growing nonperforming loans, equity volatility and policy overextension.

Real Estate Market

The Chinese real estate industry has been an important factor in the country's economic growth, rising above 15% of GDP in 2014, fueled by high domestic investment. Strong real estate performance stimulates other industries such as construction and basic materials, so the knock-on effects of rising demand for housing and commercial space are substantial. The Chinese real estate market has been heavily supported by a government that has ensured low interest rates and accommodative lending standards. Unoccupied ghost cities in various parts of the country have been well documented, and concerns about excess capacity have threatened the outlook for the real estate market and the entire economy.

Property prices fell in 2015 but rebounded in early 2016 in China's top-tier cities. The slide continued in smaller cities. Some analysts have suggested real estate investments are being funded by capital flowing out of China's equity markets, though occupancy data suggests much of the strength in surging geographies is not being driven by speculation. In PIMCO's view, sluggish performance in smaller cities and inventory overhang are sufficient to limit real estate's potential to modest positive growth. This creates a drag on GDP growth relative to historical performance, because real estate is such an important part of the Chinese economy.

Leverage

China added $21 trillion in debt between 2007 and 2015. While the sovereign-debt-to-GDP ratio climbed from 32% in 2006 to 43.9% in 2015, GDP growth fell from 15.4% to 6.7%. Government spending has become an important element of GDP growth as the Chinese economy experiences cyclical slowdown, so the country would have to take on roughly 15% more sovereign debt to achieve its GDP targets at the current rate. Leverage is not high enough to represent a serious threat to economic well-being, but the expanding role of government and diminishing marginal returns limit upside potential.

Nonperforming Loans

Nonperforming loans (NPL) in Chinese banks more than doubled in 2015, bringing the reported NPL ratio to 1.4%. PIMCO expects this figure to increase over the medium term, and stress tests suggest this figure could climb as high as 6%. If these downside scenarios are realized, it could require recapitalization of Chinese banks. NPLs are long-term problems and do not represent an imminent threat in the current cycle, but could influence policy in the short term. This lingering threat can also inhibit investment, which is important for sustained growth.

Equity Market

Chinese equities were highly volatile in 2015 and 2016, and corrective policy often lacked efficacy in response. Stock market volatility can be harmful in the real economy when it impacts investor confidence or consumer sentiment. Uncertain investors can withdraw their assets from an economy, resulting in capital flight, which limits growth potential. Poor consumer sentiment reduces aggregate demand and can be a drag on economic growth. Poorly conceived policy designed to address equity volatility can also impact currency and stifle business investment.

Policy Efficacy

Monetary and fiscal policy have already both been heavily used by China to address economic and capital market inadequacies, and the marginal effects of additional actions are diminished. Sweeping currency depreciation measures led to capital outflow and pushed interest rates closer to theoretical efficacy thresholds. Fiscal stimulation contributed to excess capacity in some manufacturing or real estate categories, and there are fears that true demand from businesses and consumers cannot be simulated indefinitely.

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/061316/why-pimco-says-chinas-growth-capped.asp