美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦在周一表示，美国经济持续回暖，加息可能性继续增加。
耶伦在费城世界事务理事会上表示：“鉴于劳动力市场环境的进一步改善以及通胀水平的持续提高，我认为是时候逐渐减少货币政策调节了。”
耶伦在会上没有透露下一次加息时机的任何线索，与5月27日的表现大相径庭。
分析家在耶伦发布讲话之前表示，五月的就业数据疲软，六月加息的可能性不大，因此七月加息的几率有所增加。
道琼斯指数委员会总经理兼主席 David Blitzer 认为耶伦的潜台词是：美联储不会在六月采取任何行动，七月又该如何则要等待六月的失业报告结果。
他的经济预测与耶伦在五月发表的观点有99%是一致的。
他说：“耶伦上一次做好了准备，但这一次没有。”
耶伦发表讲话后，美股大涨。在她讲话期间，道琼斯工业指数跌回开盘水平，但在讲话结束后，又回升至17,943点，上涨了136个点。
美联储主席表示，五月的就业数据疲软，使得美联储前进的道路步履维艰。五月的疲软数据超出了她的预期。
她指出了当前经济面临的各种不确定性。但她仍然坚持经济的持续、稳定的增长需要加息的支持。
美联储主席说：“虽然近来的经济增长受到某些反向因素的影响，但我仍然看好就业率的增长，而且持续增加的通货膨胀会逐渐弥补消极的影响。”
耶伦说，未来的经济发展充满了不确定性：国内需求的回升，全球经济环境以及即将到来的退欧公投，生产力的增长前景，以及通胀将在何时回升至2%。
皮尔庞特证券公司首席经济学家史蒂夫·斯坦利表示：“虽然耶伦没有明确表示，但她仍然相信美国的经济增长足以支持年内的几次加息。”
美联储会议将在6月14日至15日召开。经济学家们认为，美联储会维持年内加息两次的预测不变。
德意志银行证券公司首席经济学家 Peter Hooper 认为，七月加息几率增加并不是会议最可能出现的结果。但若六月的就业数据强势，这是极有可能出现的情况。
他说：“市场预期更倾向于九月和十二月。”
Hooper 说：“年内加息两次是不可能的，若真加息两次，我会很吃惊的。”
Yellen says U.S. remains on track for more interest-rate hikes
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Monday said she expects the U.S. economy will continue to improve and expects further gradual increases in interest rates will “probably” be appropriate.
“I continue to believe that it will be appropriate to gradually reduce the degree of monetary policy accommodation, provided that labor market conditions strengthen further and inflation continues to make progress toward our objective,” Yellen said in a speech to the World Affairs Council of Philadelphia.
Yellen offered no clues on the timing of Fed action in her remarks. She did not repeat the phrase that the Fed would act “in the coming months” that the included in remarks at Harvard University on May 27.
The weak May job report has taken June off the table and has raised doubts about a rate increase in July, analysts said ahead of the Yellen speech.
David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the S&P Dow Jones index committee, said Yellen’s message to the market is that the Fed is not going to do anything in June and she’ll wait for the next unemployment report to decide about July.
Her outlook for the economy is “99% the same” to what it was the last time she spoke in May, he said.
“The last time she was ready for June but this time she’s not,” he said.
U.S. stocks were much higher than they were prior to Yellen’s remarks. During her remarks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.64% trimmed its morning gains but then came back at the end of her speech to trade most recently up 136 points to 17,943.
The Fed boss said the weak May job numbers raises questions about the outlook that officials “will be wrestling with going forward.” She held out the possibility that the weak May job report was “an aberration.”
She listed several uncertainties facing the economy. But she came down on the side of continued moderate growth that would call for more rate increases.
“Although the economy recently has been affected by a mix of countervailing forces, I see good reasons to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones,” the Fed chairwoman said.
Yellen said there were “significant uncertainties” in the outlook: the resilience of domestic demand, global economic conditions and the coming Brexit referendum, the outlook for productivity growth, and how quickly inflation will move back to 2%.
Steve Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, said Yellen “still believes the economy is on track to dictate a couple of rate increases this year, though of course she was not that specific.”
Fed officials will meet on June 14-15. Economists don’t think the Fed will move away from predictions of two interest-rate hikes this year.
In an interview, Deutsche Bank Securities chief economist Peter Hooper said a July rate increase “is not the most likely outcome” but could move back “front and center” if the June employment report is strong.
“September and December have become the more central expectations” for the market, he said.
“They certainly are not going to come off predictions of two rate hikes, I’d be surprised if they did,” Hooper added.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
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