加拿大火灾引发的石油产出危机已经过去，人们又开始担忧供应过剩的问题，因此，周二亚洲市场的原油价格再度下跌。
加拿大亚伯达地区的大火导致2400栋建筑被毁，是加拿大有史以来损失最大的自然灾害。该地区大多数石油制造商都削减了原油产出，至少已有64.5万桶/日的油砂生产由于这场大火而被迫中断，这超过了加拿大每日产量的四分之一。消防官员表示，周日气温下降，火情已有所缓解。
纽约商品交易所六月交割的低硫轻质原油期货的成交价为43.23美元，下跌了0.21美元。伦敦洲际交易所七月交割的布伦特原油的成交价为43.73美元，上涨了0.09美元。
数据专家Genscape 公司预测，美国最大的石油储存枢纽俄克拉荷马州库欣的库存将增加140万桶，油价承受的压力因而再度增加。分析家Platts推测，美国原油库存将在本周增加30万桶。
美国能源储备局将在周三发布准确数据，全球石油储备定将再度增加，而石油输出国组织四月的库存极有可能也是增加的。OPEC的数据发布日期暂定为星期五。
OM金融公司客户经理Start Ive说道：“持有时间最长的仓位是从去年开始持有的西德州中质原油，当前的数据足以使这些长期持有者平仓。”
原油需求的不确定性也使得交易员们惴惴不安。今年四月，中国进口量较去年的预期骤减了10.9%，高于三月的7.6%。
SCI国际的能源分析家高健指出：“中国的原油需求依旧强势，因为油价如此之低，中国的私人炼油厂便会不断地增加进口配额。”
他补充道：“但是这个趋势会持续多久是很难预测的，因为炼油的利润空间正在逐渐减少，而且一些炼油厂计划在后半年进行设备维修。”
中国私人炼油厂不断增加产量，争取将利润最大化，因此地区产品价格的前景不甚理想。
到目前为止，这些私人炼油厂的产品大多销往国内市场，但炼油的利润空间越来越小，他们可能会将目光转移至出口市场，这会使柴油市场的情况进一步恶化。
该公司在会议记录中提到：“私人炼油厂会在何时涌入国际市场取决于原油进口量以及出口配额。我们相信，中国政府是不会限制出口的。”
Crude prices fall on Canada wildfire eases, data hints of inventory glut
Crude oil prices traded lower in Asian trade Tuesday as threats on oil output due to Canada’s wildfires have ebbed, rekindling concerns of a growing supply glut.
With about 2,400 structures burned to the ground, the fire in Alberta, Canada has been dubbed as the costliest natural disaster in Canadian history. Given the proximity to the oil-sand industry, many oil producers in the area have reduced their crude-oil output, with at least 654,000 barrels a day now cut, more than a quarter of daily production. Fire officials said cooler temperatures has slowed the spread of the wildfires since Sunday.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in June CLM6, -0.09% traded at $43.23 a barrel, down $0.21 in the Globex electronic session. July Brent crude LCON6, +0.39% on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.09 to $43.73 a barrel.
Oil prices came under more pressure after private data forecaster Genscape Inc. said inventory at key U.S. delivery hub in Cushing, Okla. gained 1.4 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Platts estimate U.S. crude stocks to have increased 300,000 barrels in the latest week.
If the figures prove accurate when official U.S. Energy Department data are released Wednesday, it would add yet more oil to the global glut, especially at a time when production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to have increased in April. Official OPEC data is due Friday.
“The data was enough to spark profit taking as position data showed investors holding the most long positions in West Texas Intermediate since last year, while North Sea Brent contracts held are at near record levels,” said Start Ive, a client manager at OM Financial.
Uncertainty over demand is also keeping traders in cautious mode. In April, China’s imports sank by a sharper-than-expected 10.9% from a year ago, steeper than the 7.6% drop in March. Even though the country remains thirsty for crude with April’s crude imports rising 7.6% on-year, the overall imports is worrisome, analysts said.
“For now, China’s crude demand will likely stay strong because private refiners are looking to max out their import quota while crude prices are still low,” said Gao Jian, an energy analyst at SCI International.
“But it is hard to gauge how long this rally will sustain because refining margin is slowly narrowing and some of the refiners are scheduled for maintenance later this year,” he added.
As Chinese private refiners, also known as teapots, ramp up their refining activities to capture the still-healthy refining margin, outlook on regional product prices darkens.
For now, these teapots are mainly selling products into the domestic market but with refining profits waning, it could compel the teapots to shift their focus to export, exacerbating the already weak diesel market, said research firm Jefferies.
“How quickly teapots flood the market depends on how much crude import and refined product export quota would be granted. We believe the Chinese government would not restrain exports,” the firm said in a note.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
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