理解负收益经济

欧洲央行在2014年9月将存款利率设置成-0.2%，2015年瑞士成为首个提供负收益十年期债券的欧盟国家。到2015年末，三分之一的欧盟国家提了供负收益债券。法定货币发行的一个负面影响是通货膨胀，大多数资本市场都试图达到2%的通胀目标。相反的，通货紧缩和杠杆的原因是债务过度，这是自2008年金融危机以来许多国家不断增长的趋势。

 

当整体经济增长放缓或者停滞时法定货币系统出现通货紧缩，正如2008年金融危机后发生的。货币的发行取决于法定货币系统债务的发行。然而，如果没有经济增长，放缓的经济将因限制消费者的债务增加，因此引起通货紧缩。

 

负收益工具

欧洲央行和日本央行试图通过存款和债券的负收益对抗通货紧缩。这是希望这些措施能鼓励欧洲银行将资金储备借贷给市场以创造经济增长，而不是放在欧洲央行进行亏损存储。当市场已经产生了太多的债务，货币发行将停止并需要一段时间的通货紧缩甚至是债务大赦，通货紧缩将会降低债务危机。债务产生和之后一段时间的通货紧缩在历史上被用来消灭大部分的债务。例如，这个策略在18和19世纪形成了一个系统，使通货紧缩之后出现强烈的进步。

 

债务大赦

债务大赦本质上是在通货紧缩时期把财富从债权人转移向债务人。例如，美国政府在1819年终止了农民的农业债务偿还。大部分这些债务被免除。美国1933年从金本位向法定货币转移时也免除了40%的债务。这些通货紧缩的周期取决于转移或者减轻债务的负收益工具。

 

通货紧缩中杠杆的使用

在负收益环境的投资者的担忧不仅仅是得到负收益的可能，而且还有对经济继续下降的趋势消除大部分投资资产价值的担忧。负收益债券似乎成为了当代投资者提供了一个避风港。负收益债券使得投资者能对系统中的进一步下跌进行投资对冲。

 

如果一个投资者购买收益率为-2%的债券，到债券到期时其投资本金只减少2%。然而，如果经济在相同时间内下跌4%、6%或者8%，这2%的损失将能提供一个更小的损失。如果一个投资者使用杠杆购买债券，那么这个优势将会被放大。然而如果经济回复或者仅通货紧缩1%，那么-2%的债券收益率将会比在市场中亏损的多。

 

在任何市场中使用杠杆都要小心，因为这将放大任何盈利和亏损。当进行高风险投资时，杠杆应当仅仅是投资组合的一部分。负收益债券可能从2016年4月开始在欧洲和其他任何地方提供一个很好的方式度过通胀紧缩阶段。

 

Consider Leverage in a Negative Yield World

By TK McDonald

Most investors will not have to deal with deflationary pressures in their lifetimes. The last time the world’s financial system dealt with deflation was before World War II. As a result, the idea of negative yields for bank deposits and bonds is not commonly understood. The current global financial crisis in 2016 has placed central banks in a position, especially in Europe and Japan, to use negative yields to push money into their economies. However, investors may be able to take advantage, with substantial risk, of a deflationary negative yield scenario through leverage.

 

Understanding a Negative Yield Economy

The European Central Bank (ECB) set rates for deposits at a historic negative rate of 0.2% in September 2014, and Switzerland became the first country in the European Union (EU) to offer a 10-year bond with a negative yield in early 2015. By the end of 2015, one-third of EU countries were offering negative yield bonds. A side effect of money creation in a fiat currency system is inflation, on which most capital markets try to attain a 2% target. Alternatively, deflation and deleveraging is the result of too much debt creation, which has been the growing trend in many countries since the 2008 financial crisis.

 

Deflation in a fiat currency system happens when overall growth of an economy slows or stalls, as has happened since the global financial crisis in 2008. The issuance of money depends on the issuance of debt in the fiat currency system. However, without economic growth, a slowing economy constrains consumers from increasing their debt loads, thereby causing deflation.

 

Negative Yield Instruments

The ECB and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) have tried to fight deflation by offering negative yields on deposits and bonds. The hope was that these measures would encourage European banks to lend their cash reserves into the market to create economic growth, instead of placing them in money-losing financial deposits with the ECB. When the market has created too much debt, money creation stalls and requires a period of deflation, which eases the debt crisis. This period of debt creation, followed by deflation or even debt jubilees, has historically been used to wipe out large portions of debt. For example, this strategy was used to create a system in which deflation, followed by intense progress, occurred in the 18th and 19th centuries.

 

A Debt Jubilee

A debt jubilee is essentially a way to transfer wealth from creditors to debtors in times of deflation. For example, the U.S. government imposed a stop to agricultural debt payments for farmers in 1819. Large portions of these debts were forgiven. Even the United States' transfer from the gold standard to the fiat currency in 1933 devalued the U.S. dollar and reduced debts by as much as 40% in some instances. The lengths of these deflationary periods depend on the negative yield instruments used to transfer or ease debt.

 

Leveraging for Greater Deflation

For investors in a negative yield environment, the concern is not just the possibility of getting a negative yield, but that the economy will continue to spiral in a downward deflationary trend that wipes out a large portion of an investment's asset value. Negative yield bonds seem to be a modern way to give investors a safe haven. A negative-yield bond allows investors to hedge their investments against further declines in the system.

 

If an investor purchases a bond with a -2% yield, the principal investment declines by only 2% by the time the bond matures. However, if the economy devalues by 4, 6 or 8% over the same period, the 2% bond loss will have beaten the market, providing a smaller loss. If an investor leverages a bond in this market, the gain would be magnified. However, if the market recovers and deflation only hits 1%, then a 2% bond yield will lose more value than the market.

 

It is important to exercise care when leveraging in any market, as it will magnify any gain or loss. When considering high-risk investments, leveraging should only represent a portion of an investor's portfolio. Negative-yield bonds may provide a better way to survive the deflationary period occurring in Europe and elsewhere, as of April 2016.

 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/050116/consider-leverage-negative-yield-world.asp