瑞士信贷宏观投资、资产管理主管 Jonathan Wilmot 回顾了19世纪90年代、20世纪30年代以及2007年的三次金融危机，发现当前时期发生金融危机的潜在金融、经济条件并不明显。所以他的结论是：政治因素。
我们身处在这样的时期吗？他认为，回顾股票市场和全球工业产品的长期表现，就会发现全球经济并不处于过热的状态。全球危机出现之前的先决条件并不存在于西方经济体中。
这意味着问题的关键在中国等新兴经济体及原油等大宗商品之中。中国需要面对的问题是，财政措施和必要的结构性改革能否双管齐下。但这不是其他经济体面临的问题。Wilmot 解释说：“中国是个模板，这些事情也会发生在欧洲和其他国家之间。”
Wilmot 说：“在危机之后的余波中，政策失误是很重要的因素。”1937年的货币紧缩政策原本是想避免危机重演，结果却使情况恶化。我们从20世纪30年代的危机中得到的教训是，在私营部门无法插手的时候，公共部门就该上场了。
当今世界进入了动荡时期，包括金融、交通在内的任何部门都会被高度发展的科技改变。重大的人口结构转变会给商业、政府领导者带来极大的挑战，如：婴儿潮一代集体退休。“展望未来的世界，经济和工业的主体部分极可能被摧毁，这会给股票市场带来重大影响。”债券收益可能在未来很长一段时间内保持在较低的水平，基金管理业不得不重新制定未来的策略。
Is the World Going Back into Crisis?
By: Credit Suisse
Published: April 6, 2016
Jonathan Wilmot, Credit Suisse’s Head of Macro Investments, Asset Management, looks at three past crises of capitalism – in the 1890s, the 1930s and the most recent one in 2007 – and shows that previous pre-crisis financial and economic conditions are not apparent today. His conclusion: Policy matters.
Is the world going back into crisis? “It comes down to policy and whether policy rises to the challenges we face right now,” Wilmot told participants in the opening session on April 6 at the Credit Suisse 2016 Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong. “After big crises, the system remains fragile for a very long period of time,” he explained.
The “deep panic” in the markets at the beginning of this year could signal a buy opportunity, Wilmot said. “In history, it has always been right to be contrarian in a panic except when you are at the beginning of a bubble or over-leveraged period.”
Are we in such a period? Going by a longer-term view of equity market performance and global industrial production levels, the global economy is not overheating, he observed. “The preconditions that had been in place in Western economies prior to previous global recessions are not there.”
That suggests that the focus of concern should be on emerging economies such as China and on developments in commodities including oil. In China, the issue is whether it can implement fiscal policy measures and push through necessary structural reforms at the same time. Yet this is not unlike the challenge facing other economies. “China is just a template for what needs to happen in Europe and other countries,” Wilmot explained.
“In the aftermath of these great crises, policy mistakes really matter,” he said, recalling that the monetary policy tightening in 1937, which was intended to stave off a return to crisis, ended up making matters worse. “One of the lessons of the 1930s for how we came out of the crisis is that the public sector stepped in when the private sector wouldn’t.”
The world, he remarked, is entering an unsettling period during which whole sectors such as finance and transport will be comprehensively changed by technological advances. Major demographic shifts that are playing out such as the retirement of baby boomers will pose significant challenges to business and government leaders. “If I look at the world going forward, there is the possibility of massive disruption to major parts of the economy and industry that will have a major effect on equities.” With bond yields possibly remaining low for some time and with its bias in favor of passive diversification, the fund management industry will have to review its strategies going forward, said Wilmot.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
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