我们处在经济增长的最后阶段吗？

 Dan Moskowitz  2016年3月25日

我们处在经济增长的最后阶段吗？回答这个问题的第一个方式是明确的不是。这是从长远的经济周期角度回答的。你有没有注意到？当经济和股票市场兴盛时，人们认为这永远不会结束。而当经济和股票市场萧条时，人们觉得这一情况永远都不会结束。在两种情况下，人们会基于当时情况进行激烈争论。这可能会关系到就业机会、央行政策、福利资金、个人债务水平、公司债务水平和油价等。这些名单有很多，但是永远不会保持不变。

就短期而言，没人知道接下来会发生什么。这很大程度上与货币刺激与经济实体相关，这将我们引入下一个阶段。如果我们观察接下来的几年，情况可能会变得糟糕。我们无法判断这将在何时发生，也不知道最终的催化因素是什么。最重要的事实是全世界的经济都在放缓。

经济调查结果

美银银行全球调查部门最近的一份调查显示59%的基金经理相信现在是经济增长的最后阶段，这是金融危机以来的最高比例。

全球所有行业的前景指数从一月的52.6下降到2月的50.6。让人担忧的不仅是下降，而且低于50将会出现收缩。报告还指出美国、欧元区、英国和日本的产出增长已经开始下降。如果你很庆幸没有在名单中看到中国，请不要对这个第二大经济体过分乐观。据路透社报道，中国的服务行业开始放缓，这可能是制造业放缓导致的。

据最新报道美国是世界上唯一经济增长的主要经济体。这可能是真的，但是同时根据FactSet的报道，标准普尔500收入出现自金融危机以来最快的下跌速度。当你看到下面的美国国内数据，你会发现这一趋势。

服务业

1月 53.2

2月49.7

制造业和服务业

1月53.2

2月50.0

非制造业

1月 53.5

2月 53.4

就业

1月 52.1

2月 49.7

股票没有下跌的原因是糟糕的经济数据使美联储更加温和，这推动了股价的上涨。问题是这可能是一个人工推动。摩根大通的全球经济主管 David Hensley似乎是这样认为的。最近他曾说过：“2月的PMI调查进一步表明全球经济在2016年第一季度的广泛疲软。”持这种观点的不仅仅只有他一个人。

MKM Partners的首席经济分析师和营销策略师Michael Darda认为经济增长正处于后期而经济衰退正在接近。他建议采取预防和多样化措施。

国际货币基金组织将2016年全球经济增长率设定在3.4%，但是警告可能降低这一预期，这增加了人们的担忧。该组织指出了下列风险：中国经济增长放缓、美元强势、地区政治紧张和全球再次出现避险情绪。

总结

虽然这一回升可能会持续，一些经济学家和基金经理相信全球和美国经济增长正在放缓。

Is This the Final Stage of Economic Growth?

By Dan Moskowitz | March 25, 2016

Are we in the final stages of economic growth? The first way to answer that question is a definitive no. This pertains to the economy being cyclical over the long haul. Have you ever noticed that when the economy and stock market are roaring, people think it will never end? And that when the economy and stock market are in shambles, people feel as though things will never turn around for the better? In both instances, strong arguments can be made based on current conditions. This might relate to job opportunities,central bank policies, entitlement funding, private debt levels, corporate debt levels, oil prices, etc. The list goes on and on. But things never stay the same.

As far as the near term is concerned, nobody knows what will happen next. This largely relates to monetary stimulus versus economic reality, which brings us to the next point. If we look at the next several years, it’s likely going to get ugly somewhere along the line. There is no telling when this will occur, or what the ultimate catalyst will be. The most important fact is that economies around the world are slowing. 

Economic Survey Results

A recent survey by Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research found that 59% of fund managers believe this is the final stage of economic growth, the highest reading since thefinancial crisis.

The Global All Industry Outlook Index fell to 50.6 in February from 52.6 in January. Not only is the drop concerning, but anything below 50 indicates contraction. The survey also concluded that output growth has slowed in the United States, the Eurozone, Japan, the United Kingdom and Japan. If you didn’t notice China, don’t feel too optimistic about the second-largest economy in the world. According to Reuters, China’s service sector slowed, which potentially relates to the manufacturing slowdown in China spreading to the services sector. 

It has recently been reported that the United States is the only growing major economy in the world. That might be true but also, consider that according to FactSet, S&P 500 earnings are now falling at the fastest pace since the financial crisis. When you look at the readings for the following sectors on a domestic basis, you will notice a trend.

Services

January 53.2

February 49.7

Manufacturing + Services

January 53.2

February 50.0

Non-Manufacturing

January 53.5

February 53.4

Employment

January 52.1

February 49.7

The reason you don’t see stocks falling is because poor economic readings lead to the Federal Reserve being more dovish, which investors and traders like, pushing stocks higher. The danger is that these might be artificial moves. David Hensley, director of global economics for JPMorgan Chase & Co., seems to think that’s the case. One of his recent quotes: “FebruaryPMI surveys further highlight the broad-based weakness in global growth during the opening quarter of 2016.” Hensley is not alone.

Michael Darda, chief economist and marketing strategist at MKM Partners, believes that we’re late in the game and that a recession is approaching. He recommends getting defensive and diversified.

To add to these concerns, the IMF projects 3.4% global growth in 2016 but warned that it could cut that expectation. It cited the following risks: China slowdown, stronger U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions and renewed global risk aversion.

The Bottom Line

While this rally could continue, some economists and fund managers believe that global and domestic economic growth is slowing. 

本文翻译由兄弟财经提供

文章来源：http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/032516/final-stage-economic-growth.asp