俗话说，新年新气象，但对于原油市场来说，新年只有新麻烦。1月6日，美国能源信息管理局宣布，美国原油库存达到4.823亿桶，这是80年以来的最高记录。但情况仍在继续恶化，中国上个月的制造业数据疲软，因此金融市场在上周出现了大范围卖空。原油也难以摆脱卖空的厄运。瑞士信贷技术分析家认为，布伦特原油1月6日的收盘价为每桶34.38美元，跌破了34.55美元的阀值，这意味着不久之后，原油将会跌入20美元区间，这是2003年以来的最低记录。
即使是34美元一桶，也已跌破了2008年的最低记录。无论油价是25美元还是35美元，真正的问题是，油价的低谷会持续多久？瑞士信贷依据当前状况进行预测，认为油价将在今年内逐渐恢复。
产量过剩的问题是从几年前开始的，那时美国的页岩革命极大地提高了美国的石油产量，这威胁到了沙特阿拉伯世界原油霸主的地位，沙特因此采取行动，维持其市场份额。瑞士信贷认为，沙特在今年内会维持当前的石油产量，而银行分析家会继续关注钻井数量和官方销售价格，因为产量的增长会增加油价下行的风险。沙特阿拉伯的石油产量在2015年7月达到了顶峰，每天生产1050万桶，如果沙特在那时增加了石油的产量，那么油价在2016年就不会出现明显的回升。
其他的国家也在石油供应方面起到了至关重要的作用。2015年，伊拉克的石油产量增加了6.8%。瑞士信贷认为，一旦解除了原油出口制裁，伊朗的产量将激增至每天50万桶。
瑞士信贷预测，如果2016年供应市场的冲击来源只有伊朗一个，而需求也维持在正常水平，油价就会出现转机。银行分析家认为，考虑到基础设施限制, ISIS的威胁以及2016年石油公司的削减投资，伊拉克石油产量进一步增加的空间不大。他们还指出，美国的石油产量在2015年第二季度开始下滑，而在2016年上半年，下滑仍将继续。美国之外的非 OPEC 国家的产量也会开始下降。
如果瑞士信贷的预测是对的，那么石油需求量的增长会减少库存，给油价带来上行压力。只要不出现中国投资崩盘，或是全球经济衰退的大灾难，美国和欧洲的强势需求足以弥补疲软的全球工业产量。瑞士信贷认为，如果今年全球经济增速略有提高，那么布伦特原油极有可能在2016年底突破64美元一桶的价格。
油价的波动比大宗商品重要的多。新兴市场债券、货币、股票都与油价息息相关。能源价格过低会抑制通货膨胀，而通货膨胀又是美联储和欧洲央行制定货币政策的重要指标。
Oil’s Turbulent New Year
The beginning of a new year is supposed to be a time to start fresh, but for oil markets, 2016 has brought only fresh troubles. On January 6, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced that at 482.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are close to an 80-year-high for this time of year. As if that weren’t enough, concerns about global economic growth, sparked by another month of weak Chinese manufacturing data, triggered a widespread selloff in global financial markets last week. Oil certainly wasn’t exempt from the rout. Brent crude oil prices closed at $34.38 a barrel on January 6, past a key threshold of $34.55 that means prices could soon fall into the $20s, the lowest since 2003, say Credit Suisse’s technical analysts. Prices have since dipped below $32 a barrel.
Even at $34 a barrel, oil prices were plumbing depths last seen in 2008. Whether $25 or $35, the real question is, how long can prices stay extraordinarily low? Credit Suisse’s base-case forecast is that oil prices will begin to recover this year.
The stage for the world’s current supply glut was set several years ago, when the shale revolution led to a huge increase in U.S. oil production and set the stage for Saudi Arabia to abdicate its role as the world’s swing producer in order to protect market share. Credit Suisse believes the Saudis will keep production levels flat this year, as the kingdom is already producing as much oil as it can without further investment to the best of Credit Suisse’s knowledge – however, the bank’s analysts continue to monitor rig counts and official selling prices since a production increase poses a downside risk to their forecast. If Saudi Arabia does ramp up production from its July 2015 peak of 10.5 million barrels per day, it would likely prevent oil prices from rising significantly in 2016.
Other countries also have an important part to play on the supply side of the oil equation. Iraqi production soared 23 percent in 2015, while U.S. supply grew 6.8 percent in 2015. Looking forward, Credit Suisse analysts believe Iran will ramp up production by 500,000 barrels per day once the sanctions on crude exports are lifted.
If Iranian oil is the only significant new supply to hit the markets in 2016 and demand stays on track, Credit Suisse expects oil prices to inflect up later in the year. The bank’s analysts believe that Iraqi production has little room to grow further, given infrastructure constraints, the threat from ISIS, and oil companies cutting investments for 2016. They also note that U.S. production began to fall in the second quarter of 2015, and declines are likely to continue in the first two quarters of 2016. Non-OPEC countries outside the United States are likely to experience declining output as well.
If Credit Suisse’s supply forecasts are correct, rising demand for oil should eventually force a draw on inventories, putting upward pressure on prices. Healthy consumer demand trends in the U.S. and Europe should make up for weakening global industrial production, unless a collapse in Chinese investment or an unforeseen disaster prompts a global recession. If global growth improves slightly this year, however, as currently forecasted, Credit Suisse believes Brent crude prices will hit $64 a barrel by the end of 2016.
The oil price trajectory has implications far beyond the commodities complex. The performance of emerging market bonds, currencies, and equities are highly correlated with oil prices. Low energy prices also depress headline inflation numbers, and inflation is the key indicator that officials at both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are watching to determine future monetary policy.
本文翻译由兄弟财经提供
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